Buy Low on Memphis
Nearly every regression flag on this page points the same direction: the plus turnover margin, the cheap defensive yards-per-point number and the thin returning production all flattered an 8-5 team that should not have won that many. Charles Huff inherits a program that actually underachieved its yardage margin in conference play, which is the rare good sign here, and it lands on Marcus Stokes, the West Florida transfer projected to run the offense, to convert that hidden efficiency into real wins. The 7-5 projection reads about right, but with the era of Charles Huff beginning and the luck largely negative, 2026 is a foundation-building year more than a leap forward.
Huff Inherits a Mirage
Charles Huff takes over a program whose 8-5 mark last season ran hotter than the underlying numbers support. A turnover margin of +7 over 13 games and an offense that needed just 12.7 yards per point scored are the kind of efficiencies that rarely repeat, and with only 4% of production returning, Huff is effectively starting from scratch rather than protecting a formula. The one bright spot buried in the noise is that Memphis actually underachieved its yardage margin in conference play, which points to more quiet growth than the record suggests even as the flashier numbers regress.
Stokes Inherits a Loaded Attack
Memphis moved on from the quarterback who ran a 32.5-point offense (25th nationally) and handed the keys to Marcus Stokes, a West Florida transfer with no prior stats on file, working behind a line that must clean up 33 sacks allowed. The ground game (183 yards per game, 33rd) and a defense that generated a +7 turnover margin and 78 tackles for loss give Stokes a cushion most first-year starters never get. Charles Huff takes over a roster built to win now, and the passing game, 65th nationally at 228 yards per game, is the one area where Stokes has to be an upgrade rather than a placeholder.
Brendon Lewis threw for 2,673 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, and none of that returns. Charles Huff has to replace him entirely with a room full of newcomers, and Marcus Stokes, in from West Florida, has taken the early lead over Grant Troutman, Air Noland and the rest of the camp field. Memphis ran one of the better offenses in the conference, 25th nationally in scoring, but that production came from Lewis and the run game; Stokes now has to prove he can keep the passing attack from becoming the weak link on a group that already ranked 65th in passing yards per game.
Every back who carried the 2025 backfield is gone, including Sutton Smith's 669 yards and Frank Peasant's 7 touchdowns, so new coach Charles Huff rebuilt the room entirely through the portal. Dallan Hayden (326 yards at Colorado) and Manny Covey (194 yards at Cincinnati) arrive as the presumptive lead options, with Isaiah McGill and true freshman Jordan Thompson representing total unknowns behind them. That's a lot of turnover to ask a top-40 rushing attack to absorb at once, and Hayden's track record makes him the safer bet to anchor the load early.
Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins combined for the bulk of Memphis' production a year ago, and both are gone, leaving Brady Kluse's 22 catches as the top returning mark in the room. Charles Huff's staff answered by raiding the portal, pairing Tychaun Chapman's 444 yards from Southern Miss with four-star Michigan State transfer Alante Brown to reset the depth chart almost entirely with outside additions. That's a near-total overhaul at the position for an offense that ranked 65th in passing yards per game, and Chapman projects as the immediate top target while Brown's ceiling could define how much better this passing game actually gets.
Memphis gutted its entire tight end production, waving goodbye to Christian Ross, Matt Adcock, Bryce Anderson and Jerry Cross, and replaced all of it with one transfer: Hunter Tipton, who caught 39 passes for 411 yards and 2 touchdowns at Middle Tennessee. That workload dwarfs anything on the returning roster, where TJ Johnson's single catch is the only production left in-house. New coach Charles Huff inherits an offense that ran the ball effectively (183 yards per game, 33rd) and finished 23rd in points per scoring opportunity, and Tipton's arrival gives that attack a proven receiving threat at the position rather than a projection.
A line that allowed 33 sacks (114th nationally) got almost entirely overhauled, with 17 departures wiping out whatever cohesion existed up front. Charles Huff's staff leaned on the portal to patch it, bringing in Aaron Karas from Colorado State and Carde Smith from Colorado at tackle alongside Skyler Grant from Old Dominion inside, while seniors Chance Holloman and Parker Mitchell are the most experienced holdovers in a room with no clear returning starters. With only five players back against that many losses, protection is the variable that determines whether Memphis' 6.06 yards per play stays anywhere close to last year's mark, and it is fair to expect growing pains before this rebuilt group jells.
Memphis rebuilt its pass rush by raiding Southern Miss, and the return on that move decides whether 21 sacks in 2025 was a floor or a fluke. J'Mond Tapp arrives with 7.5 sacks and 12 TFL already on his résumé, pairing with fellow transfer Jaden McKinney to replace the departed production of William Whitlow Jr. and Jalen Bell up front. The tackles-for-loss juice (40th nationally) was already there for new coach Charles Huff to inherit, so Tapp's job is simple: turn those stops into finishes and drag the sack total out of the triple digits.
Mike Montgomery (106 tackles, 6 TFL, 3 sacks) anchors this group, but Memphis loses nearly half its production at the position with Sam Brumfield (90 tackles, 11 TFL) and Everett Roussaw Jr. (58 tackles, 6.5 TFL) both gone. Charles Huff is rebuilding the depth chart around Montgomery with a five-man high school signing class headlined by Elijah Fernandez and Kadan Spratling, none of whom have logged a college snap, while Jayden Parrish arrives with only 3 tackles to his name. That youth movement is a real risk for a defense that already ranked 100th in sacks, and Montgomery's ability to cover for green teammates will decide whether the run-stopping numbers (29th in run-stuff rate) hold up.
Memphis lost its entire secondary's production, with Kamari Wilson's 78 tackles and 6.5 TFL walking out the door, so new coach Charles Huff went straight to the Southern Miss pipeline to replace it wholesale. Ian Foster arrives with 76 tackles and 3.5 TFL to plug in at safety immediately, joined by fellow Southern Miss transfers Ahmere Foster and Dylan King, while Chauncey Logan Jr. (7 tackles, 2 TFL) is the lone returning back with real game tape. This is a near-total transfer overhaul of a unit that ranked 84th in passing yards allowed, and Memphis is betting the newcomers' junior-college snaps translate faster than a rebuild through the room's returners would.
Gianni Spetic's 88 points and 14 of 19 field goals walk out the door, and neither Tarik Ahmetbasic nor Oliver Castaneda has a single collegiate kick on record to prove he can replace that production. Charles Huff went to the portal for insurance, landing Philippe LaForge from Coastal Carolina, who has hit just 2 of 4 field goals at the college level. The bigger swing might be at punter, where Harrison Tuck arrives from Alabama State with a 41.6 average on 25 punts to replace Lachlan Carrigan's 43.3 mark, while Jake Snyder gives the staff a developmental arm behind him.
Stokes Inherits a Southern Miss Pipeline
Charles Huff didn't just take over a program, he took over a division rival's roster, pulling four Southern Miss transfers including EDGE J'Mond Tapp (69 tackles, 7.5 sacks) and safety Ian Foster (76 tackles) to rebuild a defense that lost Sam Brumfield and Kamari Wilson. The bigger issue is behind center, where Brendon Lewis and his 2,673 passing yards are gone and Marcus Stokes, a transfer from West Florida with no prior stats on file, is projected to run the offense. Dallan Hayden and Manny Covey arrive to soften the loss of Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Sutton Smith, but with 51 new faces in the portal, Stokes settling in fast is what actually decides how far this defense-first makeover goes.
Marcus Stokes
Charles Huff's first Memphis team runs through Marcus Stokes, the West Florida transfer projected to replace Brendon Lewis and his 2,673 yards without a single snap of prior stats to lean on. Brady Kluse and Bryce Dorsey give him proven hands outside, and Dallan Hayden arrives from Colorado to take pressure off the ground game, but how fast Stokes plays up to that supporting cast decides whether this offense holds steady or backslides.
Covering the Number
Memphis backers cashed at a 62% clip last season, but the profile splits sharply by situation. Home and road bettors both hit at 67%, while the letdown spot is obvious, a 25% cover rate the week after a loss shows this group struggling to bounce back. A new staff under Charles Huff takes over a team that flopped as a home favorite (50%) and conference play (50%), and steadying those spots will matter more for bettors than the flashier 100% mark against ranked competition, which came in a single game.
