San José State Spartans 2026 Season Preview

Niumatalolo's Year Three

San José State's slide from Niumatalolo's early optimism to a 3-9 season, capped by a 2-6 mark in Mountain West play, leaves little margin for another step back in 2026. The power rating, No. 124, reflects a program that has not built on its coaching change, and a third year without conference improvement will define how this staff's rebuild is read. There is no override here, just results that need to turn.

A Wasted Aerial Attack

San José State finished 13th nationally in passing yards per game a year ago, yet scored on those drives like a team that couldn't throw at all, converting trips inside the opponent's territory into points at a rate that ranked 130th. That's the disconnect Luke Weaver inherits after transferring in from Hawai'i, walking into an offense that moves the ball through the air but stalls in the red zone, with a run game stuck at 111th nationally to lean on. If Weaver can turn yardage into touchdowns instead of field goals, this offense stops wasting its one real strength.

Walker Eget's 3,058 yards walk out the door, and San José State replaces him with Luke Weaver, a Hawai'i transfer who threw for just 628 yards and 6 touchdowns in his prior action. That is a steep drop in proven volume, but Weaver inherits an offense that already moved the ball through the air, 283 passing yards per game, 13th nationally, even while the point total lagged at 21.4 per game. The bigger issue Weaver has to help fix is what happens once the offense reaches scoring range, since San José State ranked 130th in points per scoring opportunity, and turning those Hawai'i reps into red zone touchdowns rather than empty possessions is what will separate this offense from last year's version.

San José State's ground game managed just 120 rushing yards per game (111th) last season, and the Spartans are replacing their top three producers in Steve Chavez-Soto (448 yards, 7 TD), Lamar Radcliffe (340 yards) and Floyd Chalk IV (141 yards). What's left is Jabari Bates, who managed 192 yards and 2 scores in a complementary role, and Viliami Teu with 70 yards, neither of whom profiles as a workhorse. High school signee Courshawn Hill arrives from Williams Field with no college stats yet, while West Virginia transfer Tyler Jacklich adds only 36 rushing yards of experience, so this backfield leans on Bates by default while a raw newcomer and a lightly used transfer sort out carries behind a passing game that ranked 13th nationally in yards.

San José State's passing game produced 283 yards per game through the air, but the production behind it is gone. Danny Scudero (88 catches, 1,297 yards, 10 TD) and Leland Smith (43 catches, 695 yards, 3 TD) both departed, wiping out the bulk of last year's targets. What's left is a returning group of role players, led on paper by Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa's 9 catches for 84 yards, plus BYU transfer Dominique McKenzie and a wave of incoming freshmen including Carson Clark, Anthony Ivey, Parris Vernon and Devin Olmande out of Newbury Park. That's a lot of unproven bodies replacing over 1,900 combined receiving yards, and it points to a passing attack that leans on scheme and a veteran arm more than proven pass-catchers in 2026.

Jackson Canaan's 33 catches walk out the door, and none of the three returning tight ends, Braiden Bachich-Dixon, Ryan Boultwood, Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole, have a single catch on record to show they can replace that target share. San Jose State's passing game was legitimately productive last season, 283 yards per game through the air ranked 13th nationally, but that production has to find a new outlet now that Canaan is gone. Three-star San Clemente signee Shane Kiley arrives with no stats either, meaning this is an unproven group tasked with plugging a real hole in an offense that otherwise knows how to throw it.

San José State's line allowed just 10 sacks in 2025, a top-five national mark, even as the ground game managed only 120 yards per game (111th) and the offense stalled inside scoring range (130th in points per opportunity). That gap between pass protection and run-blocking production is the story for 2026, and Ken Niumatalolo brought in five transfer linemen, including tackles Brian Tapu (Nebraska) and Ikinasio Tupou (BYU) and guard Lavaka Taukeiaho (Oklahoma State), to push a room that returns the bulk of its bodies but loses experienced pieces like Vili Taufatofua and Jireh Moe. With senior Dejon Roney among the most experienced holdovers, the priority shifts from protecting the quarterback, already a strength, to finally opening lanes for the run.

San José State's front loses its two most disruptive pieces from a line that ranked 122nd in tackles for loss and 129th in havoc rate, as Gafa Faga (47 tackles, 5.5 TFL) and Quincy Likio (41 tackles, 4.5 TFL) are both gone. What's left is a group of light contributors, Justin Stearns and Solomone Langi combined for one sack between them, patched with a wave of three-star arrivals like Bronx Letuligasenoa, Joseph Terry and Viliami Lotoaniu who carry no college stats yet. This is a line rebuilding its pass rush from scratch, and until one of those newcomers or Etu Finau emerges as a real threat off the edge, 18 sacks a year ago looks like a ceiling, not a floor.

San Jose State loses the two players who anchored its front seven in production, Jordan Pollard (108 tackles) and Taniela Latu (65 tackles), leaving Ethan Powell as the only proven tackler back after his 37-tackle, 2.5-TFL season. That gap helps explain a defense that ranked 122nd in tackles for loss and 129th in havoc rate a year ago, and nothing on this depth chart signals an immediate fix. Weber State transfer Aizik Mahuka arrives with modest production of his own, 7 tackles, a sack and 2 TFL, while three-star Skylar Tiatia adds a body without a track record, meaning Powell has to carry far more of the load if this group stops bleeding rushing yards at the second level.

San José State is rebuilding its secondary almost entirely from outside the program after Jalen Apalit-Williams (53 tackles), Larry Turner-Gooden (28) and Caleb Presley (24 tackles, 1.5 TFL) all departed off a defense that allowed 245 passing yards per game, 115th nationally. The answer is four incoming transfer safeties, Brian Dukes Jr. (Cal Poly), Agenhart Ellis IV (Cal Lutheran), Jackson Barton (Nevada) and Jonathan Watts (Idaho State), plus corner Isaiah Buxton arriving from San Diego State with 11 tackles already on his ledger, all thrown in alongside returners Caleb Womack and Charles Cox III who combined for just 11 tackles between them last year. With almost no proven production back and a unit that generated a 12.1% havoc rate (129th nationally) last season, this group is betting on newcomers to fix a back end that got exposed far more than it created plays.

Mathias Brown made just 4 of 7 field goals last season and Denis Lynch, who hit 8 of 16 with 43 points, is now gone, leaving Brown as the lone proven leg for a kicking game that struggled to find range. Trent Carrizosa gives San José State stability at punter with his 45.6-yard average, but the snapping chain is a question mark with Matthew Fadelli unproven and Lafayette transfer Dylan Aguilera brought in to replace the departed AJ Campos. If Brown cannot clean up his accuracy, Ken Niumatalolo's special teams could again cost the Spartans points in close Mountain West games.

A Total Passing-Game Rebuild

San José State didn't just lose a quarterback, it lost its entire passing operation: Walker Eget's 3,058 yards and 17 touchdowns are gone, and so are Danny Scudero (88 catches, 1,297 yards), Kyri Shoels and Leland Smith, a trio that combined for well over 2,000 receiving yards. Luke Weaver arrives from Hawai'i to run the offense, but his 628 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions came as a backup-level workload, not a proven number one. With a 129th-ranked recruiting class and a defense replacing Jordan Pollard's 108 tackles too, 2026 is about whether Weaver and a patchwork of transfer skill talent like Dominique McKenzie and Jerry McClure can even approximate what walked out the door.

Luke Weaver

Walker Eget's 3,058 yards walk out the door, and the job falls to Luke Weaver, who arrives from Hawai'i having thrown for just 628 yards with 6 touchdowns against 3 picks. San José State went 3-9 last year with a far more experienced passer, so asking a modest sample size to run the offense while Tama Amisone sits behind him with his own 3-interception 2025 is the whole season in one position. If Weaver's efficiency in Hawai'i translates against Mountain West defenses, this offense has a floor; if it does not, there is no proven arm behind him to bail it out.

Niumatalolo's No-Cover Zone

San Jose State's numbers were bad in 2025, but bettors who backed the Spartans fared worse, going just 4-8 against the spread while the team stumbled to 3-9 straight up. The road was where money died fastest, San Jose State failed to win a single game away from home and covered only twice in six tries, a pattern that erased any value in fading a bad team for value. Conference play offered no refuge either, with a 2-6 ATS mark matching the on-field 2-6 finish, and until Ken Niumatalolo's group shows it can beat a real number as an underdog, treat San Jose State lines in 2026 with real skepticism outside the rare road-dog spot that actually cashed at 50%.