My teams
CFP bracket · 2026

Projected CFP bracket 2026

The 12-team bracket if the field were picked from today's odds.

If the playoff were picked from today's odds: Notre Dame, Miami, UCLA and Ohio State take the first-round byes, and the first round has LSU at Alabama, Wake Forest at Georgia, Utah at Texas Tech, Indiana at BYU. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.

First round, on campus

12LSU5-240%
5Alabama5-260%
At Alabama. The winner plays No. 4 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.
11Wake Forest6-140%
6Georgia6-160%
At Georgia. The winner plays No. 3 UCLA in the quarterfinals.
10Utah6-043%
7Texas Tech6-057%
At Texas Tech. The winner plays No. 2 Miami in the quarterfinals.
9Indiana6-148%
8BYU6-052%
At BYU. The winner plays No. 1 Notre Dame in the quarterfinals.

Each percentage is that team's chance to win the game, from the model's ratings with home field for the higher seed. Byes: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Miami, 3 UCLA, 4 Ohio State.

The projected twelve and their odds

Seed
Team
In
Semis
Title
1
Notre Dame6-1
86%
39%
12%
2
Miami6-0
77%
33%
9%
3
UCLA6-0
71%
28%
6%
4
Ohio State6-1
69%
29%
8%
5
Alabama5-2
67%
28%
9%
6
Georgia6-1
56%
22%
5%
7
Texas Tech6-0
52%
18%
4%
8
BYU6-0
51%
17%
3%
9
Indiana6-1
54%
19%
5%
10
Utah6-0
47%
16%
4%
11
Wake Forest6-1
48%
16%
4%
12
LSU5-2
44%
17%
5%
–
Ole Miss5-1
41%
14%
3%
–
Tennessee6-1
41%
13%
3%
–
Houston6-1
36%
11%
2%
–
James Madison7-1
25%
3%
1%

The twelve teams most often in the field across the simulations, seeded by their expected seed; below the line, the first four out. In is the chance to make the playoff at all, Quarters to reach the quarterfinals (a bye counts). The percentages are the forecast; the bracket is one way they could fall. Full table: College Football Playoff odds.

Pick your bracket

Tap a team to send it through. Each percentage is that team's chance in the game from the model's ratings; the link keeps your picks.

First round

Quarterfinal

Winner of the game before
Winner of the game before
Winner of the game before
Winner of the game before

Semifinal

Winner of the game beforeWinner of the game before
Winner of the game beforeWinner of the game before

Championship

Winner of the game beforeWinner of the game before

No picks yet.

Where the games are

First round December 18 and 19 on the higher seed's campus. Quarterfinals at the Fiesta Bowl (December 30) and the Peach, Rose and Cotton Bowls (January 1). Semifinals at the Orange Bowl (January 14) and the Sugar Bowl (January 15). The national championship is January 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Everyone else's bowl: bowl projections.

Questions

What is the projected College Football Playoff bracket?

If the playoff were picked from today's odds: Notre Dame, Miami, UCLA and Ohio State take the first-round byes, and the first round has LSU at Alabama, Wake Forest at Georgia, Utah at Texas Tech, Indiana at BYU. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.

Who are the first teams out?

Ole Miss (41% to make it), Tennessee (41% to make it), Houston (36% to make it), James Madison (25% to make it).

Who is most likely to win the national title?

Notre Dame, in 12% of simulations.

When and where are the playoff games?

First round December 18 and 19 on the higher seed's campus; quarterfinals at the Fiesta Bowl (December 30) and the Peach, Rose and Cotton Bowls (January 1); semifinals at the Orange Bowl (January 14) and the Sugar Bowl (January 15); the national championship January 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

How does the 12-team bracket work?

The SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions are in, Notre Dame if it ranks in the top 12, and the best Group of Six champion; the highest-ranked teams left fill the twelve. Seeding is straight by ranking: the top four get byes, 5 hosts 12, 6 hosts 11, 7 hosts 10 and 8 hosts 9, and the winners go on to play the top four.