
Every FBS team gets a page: last season’s results, returning production, and the schedule with a win probability on every game. Plus the projected playoff bracket, conference orders of finish, and where our number disagrees with the market.
Mountain West · 4-8 in 2025Air Force Falcons7-5 projected · fpi #93 · 92% returningTroy Calhoun, Yr 20
MAC · 5-7 in 2025Akron Zips4-8 projected · fpi #133 · 37% returningJoe Moorhead, Yr 5
SEC · 11-4 in 2025Alabama Crimson Tide9-3 projected · fpi #8 · 40% returningKalen DeBoer, Yr 3
Sun Belt · 5-8 in 2025App State Mountaineers6-6 projected · fpi #109 · 21% returningDowell Loggains, Yr 2
Big 12 · 8-5 in 2025Arizona State Sun Devils6-6 projected · fpi #44 · 23% returningKenny Dillingham, Yr 4
Big 12 · 9-4 in 2025Arizona Wildcats7-5 projected · fpi #34 · 54% returningBrent Brennan, Yr 3
SEC · 2-10 in 2025Arkansas Razorbacks4-8 projected · fpi #47 · 19% returningRyan Silverfield, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 7-6 in 2025Arkansas State Red Wolves6-6 projected · fpi #107 · 30% returningButch Jones, Yr 6
American · 7-6 in 2025Army Black Knights6-6 projected · fpi #89 · 91% returningJeff Monken, Yr 13
SEC · 5-7 in 2025Auburn Tigers7-5 projected · fpi #22 · 33% returningAlex Golesh, Yr 1
MAC · 4-8 in 2025Ball State Cardinals4-8 projected · fpi #134 · 13% returningMike Uremovich, Yr 2
Big 12 · 5-7 in 2025Baylor Bears7-5 projected · fpi #37 · 25% returningDave Aranda, Yr 7
Pac-12 · 9-5 in 2025Boise State Broncos8-3 projected · fpi #50 · 61% returningSpencer Danielson, Yr 4
ACC · 2-10 in 2025Boston College Eagles4-8 projected · fpi #78 · 31% returningBill O'Brien, Yr 3
MAC · 4-8 in 2025Bowling Green Falcons5-7 projected · fpi #123 · 28% returningEddie George, Yr 2
MAC · 5-7 in 2025Buffalo Bulls6-6 projected · fpi #113 · 17% returningPete Lembo, Yr 3
Big 12 · 12-2 in 2025BYU Cougars9-3 projected · fpi #20 · 67% returningKalani Sitake, Yr 11
ACC · 7-6 in 2025California Golden Bears5-7 projected · fpi #62 · 41% returningTosh Lupoi, Yr 1
MAC · 7-6 in 2025Central Michigan Chippewas5-7 projected · fpi #120 · 27% returningMatt Drinkall, Yr 2
American · 1-11 in 2025Charlotte 49ers4-8 projected · fpi #126 · 35% returningTim Albin, Yr 2
Big 12 · 7-6 in 2025Cincinnati Bearcats6-6 projected · fpi #46 · 20% returningScott Satterfield, Yr 4
ACC · 7-6 in 2025Clemson Tigers8-4 projected · fpi #19 · 48% returningDabo Swinney, Yr 19
Sun Belt · 6-7 in 2025Coastal Carolina Chanticleers5-7 projected · fpi #117 · 19% returningRyan Beard, Yr 1
Big 12 · 3-9 in 2025Colorado Buffaloes6-6 projected · fpi #45 · 20% returningDeion Sanders, Yr 4
Pac-12 · 2-10 in 2025Colorado State Rams4-8 projected · fpi #118 · 24% returningJim Mora, Yr 1
CUSA · 7-6 in 2025Delaware Blue Hens7-5 projected · fpi #91 · 69% returningRyan Carty, Yr 2
ACC · 9-5 in 2025Duke Blue Devils6-6 projected · fpi #52 · 32% returningManny Diaz, Yr 3
American · 9-4 in 2025East Carolina Pirates8-4 projected · fpi #68 · 26% returningBlake Harrell, Yr 3
MAC · 4-8 in 2025Eastern Michigan Eagles4-8 projected · fpi #131 · 63% returningChris Creighton, Yr 13
American · 4-8 in 2025Florida Atlantic Owls5-7 projected · fpi #115 · 60% returningZach Kittley, Yr 2
SEC · 4-8 in 2025Florida Gators7-5 projected · fpi #18 · 50% returningJon Sumrall, Yr 1
CUSA · 7-6 in 2025Florida International Panthers6-6 projected · fpi #119 · 30% returningWillie Simmons, Yr 2
ACC · 5-7 in 2025Florida State Seminoles7-5 projected · fpi #28 · 29% returningMike Norvell, Yr 7
Pac-12 · 9-4 in 2025Fresno State Bulldogs7-5 projected · fpi #77 · 49% returningMatt Entz, Yr 2
SEC · 12-2 in 2025Georgia Bulldogs10-2 projected · fpi #5 · 69% returningKirby Smart, Yr 11
Sun Belt · 7-6 in 2025Georgia Southern Eagles5-7 projected · fpi #103 · 29% returningClay Helton, Yr 5
Sun Belt · 1-11 in 2025Georgia State Panthers4-8 projected · fpi #127 · 24% returningDell McGee, Yr 3
ACC · 9-4 in 2025Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets6-6 projected · fpi #48 · 36% returningBrent Key, Yr 5
Mountain West · 9-4 in 2025Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors8-4 projected · fpi #76 · 70% returningTimmy Chang, Yr 5
Big 12 · 10-3 in 2025Houston Cougars7-5 projected · fpi #35 · 56% returningWillie Fritz, Yr 3
Big Ten · 9-4 in 2025Illinois Fighting Illini7-5 projected · fpi #39 · 34% returningBret Bielema, Yr 6
Big Ten · 16-0 in 2025Indiana Hoosiers10-2 projected · fpi #6 · 31% returningCurt Cignetti, Yr 3
Big Ten · 9-4 in 2025Iowa Hawkeyes8-4 projected · fpi #25 · 35% returningKirk Ferentz, Yr 28
Big 12 · 8-4 in 2025Iowa State Cyclones5-7 projected · fpi #72 · 9% returningJimmy Rogers, Yr 1
CUSA · 9-5 in 2025Jacksonville State Gamecocks7-5 projected · fpi #101 · 50% returningCharles Kelly, Yr 2
Sun Belt · 12-2 in 2025James Madison Dukes8-4 projected · fpi #75 · 8% returningBilly Napier, Yr 1
Big 12 · 5-7 in 2025Kansas Jayhawks6-6 projected · fpi #55 · 29% returningLance Leipold, Yr 6
Big 12 · 6-6 in 2025Kansas State Wildcats7-5 projected · fpi #41 · 52% returningCollin Klein, Yr 1
CUSA · 10-4 in 2025Kennesaw State Owls6-6 projected · fpi #106 · 25% returningJerry Mack, Yr 2
MAC · 5-7 in 2025Kent State Golden Flashes4-8 projected · fpi #135 · 49% returningMark Carney, Yr 2
SEC · 5-7 in 2025Kentucky Wildcats5-7 projected · fpi #40 · 27% returningWill Stein, Yr 1
CUSA · 4-8 in 2025Liberty Flames7-5 projected · fpi #96 · 38% returningJamey Chadwell, Yr 4
Sun Belt · 6-7 in 2025Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns7-5 projected · fpi #99 · 48% returningMichael Desormeaux, Yr 5
Sun Belt · 8-5 in 2025Louisiana Tech Bulldogs5-7 projected · fpi #108 · 46% returningSonny Cumbie, Yr 5
ACC · 9-4 in 2025Louisville Cardinals8-4 projected · fpi #27 · 19% returningJeff Brohm, Yr 4
SEC · 7-6 in 2025LSU Tigers8-4 projected · fpi #9 · 26% returningLane Kiffin, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 5-7 in 2025Marshall Thundering Herd6-6 projected · fpi #104 · 49% returningTony Gibson, Yr 2
Big Ten · 4-8 in 2025Maryland Terrapins5-7 projected · fpi #61 · 71% returningMike Locksley, Yr 8
MAC · 0-12 in 2025Massachusetts Minutemen4-8 projected · fpi #137 · 28% returningJoe Harasymiak, Yr 2
American · 8-5 in 2025Memphis Tigers7-5 projected · fpi #74 · 4% returningCharles Huff, Yr 1
MAC · 7-7 in 2025Miami (OH) RedHawks7-5 projected · fpi #94 · 32% returningChuck Martin, Yr 13
ACC · 13-3 in 2025Miami Hurricanes10-2 projected · fpi #7 · 46% returningMario Cristobal, Yr 5
Big Ten · 4-8 in 2025Michigan State Spartans5-7 projected · fpi #65 · 24% returningPat Fitzgerald, Yr 1
Big Ten · 9-4 in 2025Michigan Wolverines8-4 projected · fpi #15 · 49% returningKyle Whittingham, Yr 1
CUSA · 3-9 in 2025Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders4-8 projected · fpi #130 · 34% returningDerek Mason, Yr 3
Big Ten · 8-5 in 2025Minnesota Golden Gophers5-7 projected · fpi #63 · 65% returningP.J. Fleck, Yr 10
SEC · 5-8 in 2025Mississippi State Bulldogs5-7 projected · fpi #49 · 41% returningJeff Lebby, Yr 3
CUSA · 7-6 in 2025Missouri State Bears5-7 projected · fpi #110 · 26% returningCasey Woods, Yr 1
SEC · 8-5 in 2025Missouri Tigers7-5 projected · fpi #21 · 40% returningEliah Drinkwitz, Yr 7
American · 11-2 in 2025Navy Midshipmen8-4 projected · fpi #69 · 34% returningBrian Newberry, Yr 4
ACC · 8-5 in 2025NC State Wolfpack7-5 projected · fpi #51 · 49% returningDave Doeren, Yr 14
Big Ten · 7-6 in 2025Nebraska Cornhuskers7-5 projected · fpi #30 · 49% returningMatt Rhule, Yr 4
Mountain West · 3-9 in 2025Nevada Wolf Pack5-7 projected · fpi #116 · 36% returningJeff Choate, Yr 3
Mountain West · 9-4 in 2025New Mexico Lobos8-4 projected · fpi #81 · 58% returningJason Eck, Yr 2
CUSA · 4-8 in 2025New Mexico State Aggies4-8 projected · fpi #129 · 35% returningTony Sanchez, Yr 3
ACC · 4-8 in 2025North Carolina Tar Heels6-6 projected · fpi #42 · 36% returningBill Belichick, Yr 2
Mountain West · 12-1 in 2025North Dakota State Bison7-5 projected · fpi #100Tim Polasek, Yr 1
American · 12-2 in 2025North Texas Mean Green6-6 projected · fpi #90 · 5% returningNeal Brown, Yr 1
Mountain West · 3-9 in 2025Northern Illinois Huskies4-8 projected · fpi #125 · 28% returningRob Harley, Yr 1
Big Ten · 7-6 in 2025Northwestern Wildcats5-7 projected · fpi #60 · 56% returningDavid Braun, Yr 4
FBS Indep. · 10-2 in 2025Notre Dame Fighting Irish11-1 projected · fpi #3 · 59% returningMarcus Freeman, Yr 6
MAC · 9-4 in 2025Ohio Bobcats7-5 projected · fpi #97 · 23% returningJohn Hauser, Yr 2
Big Ten · 12-2 in 2025Ohio State Buckeyes10-2 projected · fpi #1 · 52% returningRyan Day, Yr 9
SEC · 10-3 in 2025Oklahoma Sooners8-4 projected · fpi #12 · 64% returningBrent Venables, Yr 5
Big 12 · 1-11 in 2025Oklahoma State Cowboys6-6 projected · fpi #54 · 9% returningEric Morris, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 10-3 in 2025Old Dominion Monarchs7-5 projected · fpi #85 · 28% returningRicky Rahne, Yr 7
SEC · 13-2 in 2025Ole Miss Rebels7-5 projected · fpi #14 · 51% returningPete Golding, Yr 2
Big Ten · 13-2 in 2025Oregon Ducks10-2 projected · fpi #4 · 63% returningDan Lanning, Yr 5
Pac-12 · 2-10 in 2025Oregon State Beavers4-7 projected · fpi #98 · 39% returningJaMarcus Shephard, Yr 1
Big Ten · 7-6 in 2025Penn State Nittany Lions9-3 projected · fpi #17 · 15% returningMatt Campbell, Yr 1
ACC · 8-5 in 2025Pittsburgh Panthers7-5 projected · fpi #36 · 44% returningPat Narduzzi, Yr 12
Big Ten · 2-10 in 2025Purdue Boilermakers4-8 projected · fpi #71 · 38% returningBarry Odom, Yr 2
American · 5-8 in 2025Rice Owls4-8 projected · fpi #122 · 30% returningScott Abell, Yr 2
Big Ten · 5-7 in 2025Rutgers Scarlet Knights5-7 projected · fpi #67 · 35% returningGreg Schiano, Yr 7
MAC · 7-5 in 2025Sacramento State Hornets6-6 projected · fpi #111 · 15% returningAlonzo Carter, Yr 1
CUSA · 2-10 in 2025Sam Houston Bearkats4-8 projected · fpi #136 · 47% returningPhil Longo, Yr 2
Pac-12 · 9-4 in 2025San Diego State Aztecs7-4 projected · fpi #59 · 54% returningSean Lewis, Yr 3
Mountain West · 3-9 in 2025San José State Spartans5-8 projected · fpi #124 · 13% returningKen Niumatalolo, Yr 3
ACC · 9-4 in 2025SMU Mustangs8-4 projected · fpi #24 · 48% returningRhett Lashlee, Yr 5
Sun Belt · 4-8 in 2025South Alabama Jaguars5-7 projected · fpi #112 · 46% returningMajor Applewhite, Yr 3
SEC · 4-8 in 2025South Carolina Gamecocks6-6 projected · fpi #23 · 61% returningShane Beamer, Yr 6
American · 9-4 in 2025South Florida Bulls8-4 projected · fpi #73 · 16% returningBrian Hartline, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 7-6 in 2025Southern Miss Golden Eagles7-5 projected · fpi #87 · 8% returningBlake Anderson, Yr 1
ACC · 4-8 in 2025Stanford Cardinal4-8 projected · fpi #80 · 48% returningTavita Pritchard, Yr 1
ACC · 3-9 in 2025Syracuse Orange5-7 projected · fpi #70 · 42% returningFran Brown, Yr 3
Big 12 · 9-4 in 2025TCU Horned Frogs7-5 projected · fpi #38 · 34% returningSonny Dykes, Yr 5
American · 5-7 in 2025Temple Owls5-7 projected · fpi #102 · 36% returningK.C. Keeler, Yr 2
SEC · 8-5 in 2025Tennessee Volunteers7-5 projected · fpi #16 · 41% returningJosh Heupel, Yr 6
SEC · 11-2 in 2025Texas A&M Aggies8-4 projected · fpi #11 · 59% returningMike Elko, Yr 3
SEC · 10-3 in 2025Texas Longhorns10-2 projected · fpi #2 · 59% returningSteve Sarkisian, Yr 6
Pac-12 · 7-6 in 2025Texas State Bobcats6-5 projected · fpi #84 · 51% returningGJ Kinne, Yr 4
Big 12 · 12-2 in 2025Texas Tech Red Raiders11-1 projected · fpi #10 · 48% returningJoey McGuire, Yr 5
MAC · 8-5 in 2025Toledo Rockets8-4 projected · fpi #79 · 9% returningMike Jacobs, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 8-6 in 2025Troy Trojans6-6 projected · fpi #95 · 40% returningGerad Parker, Yr 3
American · 11-3 in 2025Tulane Green Wave8-4 projected · fpi #56 · 32% returningWill Hall, Yr 1
American · 4-8 in 2025Tulsa Golden Hurricane6-6 projected · fpi #105 · 41% returningTre Lamb, Yr 2
American · 4-8 in 2025UAB Blazers4-8 projected · fpi #128 · 15% returningAlex Mortensen, Yr 2
Big 12 · 5-7 in 2025UCF Knights6-6 projected · fpi #57 · 32% returningScott Frost, Yr 2
Big Ten · 3-9 in 2025UCLA Bruins5-7 projected · fpi #64 · 41% returningBob Chesney, Yr 1
FBS Indep. · 9-4 in 2025UConn Huskies5-7 projected · fpi #114 · 2% returningJason Candle, Yr 1
Sun Belt · 3-9 in 2025UL Monroe Warhawks3-9 projected · fpi #138 · 43% returningBryant Vincent, Yr 3
Mountain West · 10-4 in 2025UNLV Rebels9-3 projected · fpi #58 · 31% returningDan Mullen, Yr 2
Big Ten · 9-4 in 2025USC Trojans8-4 projected · fpi #13 · 60% returningLincoln Riley, Yr 5
Pac-12 · 6-7 in 2025Utah State Aggies5-7 projected · fpi #92 · 36% returningBronco Mendenhall, Yr 2
Big 12 · 11-2 in 2025Utah Utes8-4 projected · fpi #31 · 60% returningMorgan Scalley, Yr 1
Mountain West · 2-10 in 2025UTEP Miners4-8 projected · fpi #132 · 19% returningScotty Walden, Yr 3
American · 7-6 in 2025UTSA Roadrunners6-6 projected · fpi #88 · 51% returningJeff Traylor, Yr 7
SEC · 10-3 in 2025Vanderbilt Commodores6-6 projected · fpi #29 · 44% returningClark Lea, Yr 6
ACC · 11-3 in 2025Virginia Cavaliers8-4 projected · fpi #32 · 24% returningTony Elliott, Yr 5
ACC · 3-9 in 2025Virginia Tech Hokies7-5 projected · fpi #33 · 45% returningJames Franklin, Yr 1
ACC · 9-4 in 2025Wake Forest Demon Deacons6-6 projected · fpi #53 · 36% returningJake Dickert, Yr 2
Big Ten · 9-4 in 2025Washington Huskies7-5 projected · fpi #26 · 37% returningJedd Fisch, Yr 3
Pac-12 · 7-6 in 2025Washington State Cougars6-6 projected · fpi #83 · 9% returningKirby Moore, Yr 1
Big 12 · 4-8 in 2025West Virginia Mountaineers5-7 projected · fpi #66 · 18% returningRich Rodriguez, Yr 2
CUSA · 9-4 in 2025Western Kentucky Hilltoppers7-5 projected · fpi #86 · 26% returningTyson Helton, Yr 8
MAC · 10-4 in 2025Western Michigan Broncos8-4 projected · fpi #82 · 54% returningLance Taylor, Yr 4
Big Ten · 4-8 in 2025Wisconsin Badgers6-6 projected · fpi #43 · 38% returningLuke Fickell, Yr 4
Mountain West · 4-8 in 2025Wyoming Cowboys5-7 projected · fpi #121 · 28% returningJay Sawvel, Yr 3Big Ten · Kirk Ferentz, year 28 · 9-4 last season · No. 25 in our FBS ratings
Iowa's identity is still the defense that allowed just 16.1 points per game (8th nationally), and with only 35% of production returning, Hank Brown steps in as the projected starting quarterback tasked with simply not costing a unit that already ranks 25th overall its edge.
Can Hank Brown throw enough to keep defenses honest? Mark Gronowski's 1741 yards and 10 touchdowns are gone, and with just 40.3% of offensive production back, Brown steps into a passing attack largely stripped of proven targets and protection. Ferentz has built winning seasons on defense and the run before, and the safer bet is that Iowa leans on that formula again rather than asking Brown to carry the offense through the air.
Iowa's 2026 slate delivers its verdict in three road-and-home gauntlets: hosting Ohio State as a heavy underdog, traveling to face Michigan, and a trip to Washington that's close to a coin flip. Everything else on the board, from Northern Iowa to Iowa State to Purdue, is a game Kirk Ferentz's team should win, which is exactly why an 8-4 projection with a schedule ranked 46th nationally feels fair rather than aspirational. Split even against that top trio and Iowa is back in the same bowl-and-nine-wins conversation as last year's 9-4 finish; lose all three and the ceiling caps right where the projection says it should.
Every team in the FBS book. Each one has its own preview: projected finish, what the roster returns, and the games that decide the season.
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Iowa's offense scored efficiently and its defense gave up points cheaply, and the model flags both as ripe to regress, while the group actually won 66.7% of its league games against a yardage margin that only implied 57.0%. That gap between what the numbers say Iowa should have done and what it actually did in conference play is the real 2026 question, not the 9-4 record or the No. 25 power ranking sitting next to it. Kirk Ferentz's 28th year has him working with a program that outkicked its yardage in close conference battles, and a step back toward the mean is the more likely bet than a repeat.
Iowa built a top ten scoring defense and still couldn't shake a passing game that ranked 129th nationally, and that split defines what 2026 has to fix. Hank Brown is projected to take over after throwing for just 107 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in his look last season, stepping into an offense that leaned on 177 rushing yards per game because the ground game had to. If Brown can push that passing number anywhere close to respectable, a defense that already ranks 8th in points allowed and 9th in yards allowed makes Iowa dangerous rather than just stubborn.
Mark Gronowski's 1,741 passing yards walk out the door, and what Iowa returns at quarterback is thin on evidence: Hank Brown has thrown all of 107 yards, Jeremy Hecklinski has 8, and Ryan Fitzgerald and Jimmy Sullivan have no game tape to speak of. Brown is the front-runner taking the early reps, but this camp battle stays live, and four-star signee Tradon Bessinger joins the room as a long-term answer rather than 2026 competition. Whoever wins the job inherits an offense that already leaned on the ground game over the air, ranking 43rd in rushing yards per game against 129th in passing yards per game, so the bar for the passing attack is simply not making that gap worse.
Kamari Moulton's 878 yards already made him the workhorse here, and Iowa didn't need to fix this position so much as reinforce it, adding South Dakota's L.J. Phillips Jr. after he ran for 1,860 yards. That's a real one-two punch behind an offense that ran the ball well (43rd nationally) but couldn't throw it (129th in passing yards per game), so expect Moulton and Phillips to shoulder even more of the load in 2026. Xavier Williams returns as a proven change-of-pace option too, and with Jaziun Patterson gone, this room looks deeper and more explosive than the one that got Iowa to 9-4.
No Iowa receiver caught more than 15 passes in 2025, which explains why the passing game ranked 129th nationally even as the ground game hummed. Ferentz went outside the program to fix it, landing Furman transfer Evan James, who piled up 65 catches and 796 yards last season and instantly becomes the most proven target on the roster. Reece Vander Zee returns as the incumbent leading returning receiver, but the departures of Jacob Gill, Kaden Wetjen and Sam Phillips gutted what little volume existed, so James isn't a complement, he's the plan.
DJ Vonnahme's 29 catches for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns dwarf everything else on this depth chart, and with Hayden Large gone, Iowa's passing game, already 129th nationally, has nowhere else proven to turn at tight end. Zach Ortwerth's 9 grabs are the only other catch total on the roster, while Michael Burt, Eli Johnson, Thomas Meyer and three-star signees Luke Brewer and Jack Janda arrive without a snap of production between them. Kirk Ferentz's offense leans on the run and finishes drives efficiently, but until someone behind Vonnahme shows up on a stat sheet, this remains a one-man position group propping up an already bottom-third passing attack.
Iowa's offense stayed run-heavy and efficient last season (177 rushing yards per game, 43rd) while ranking 129th in passing, and the line held up well enough to allow just 18 sacks. Gennings Dunker, Logan Jones and Beau Stephens are the notable losses up front, but 13 linemen return, led on paper by seniors Cael Winter, Cannon Leonard, George Nahas, Jack Dotzler and Kade Pieper, none of whom carries a confirmed starting label. Kirk Ferentz still has to sort out who actually lines up where, but with this much of the room back and four-star signees Carson Nielsen, Hudson Parliament and Gene Riordan added as future pieces, the bigger question is whether Iowa's passing game can finally catch up to a line built to run it.
Ethan Hurkett, Aaron Graves and Max Llewellyn combined for the bulk of Iowa's pressure last year, and all three are gone, leaving a line that finished just 69th in sacks and 93rd in tackles for loss to replace nearly its entire pass-rush production. Bryce Hawthorne (15 tackles, 3 TFL) and Kenneth Merrieweather (14 tackles, 1 TFL) are the only proven returners, so Northern Illinois transfer Lance Ingold and his 17 tackles and 1.5 sacks arrives as the closest thing to a plug-and-play edge answer. This unit will lean on Iowa's scheme and a top-10 yards-allowed defense to mask a rebuilt front rather than win with the disruption it had a year ago.
Karson Sharar (83 tackles, 12 TFL, 4 sacks) and Jaden Harrell (41 tackles) are both gone, stripping out the two players who actually made plays behind the line for a defense that ranked just 93rd in TFLs a year ago. Jayden Montgomery, who managed only 1 TFL on his 44 tackles in 2025, now becomes the clear top returner, with Preston Ries and Cam Buffington adding depth but little proven disruption. Four-star signees Julian Manson and Kasen Thomas arrive with real pedigree, but expecting true freshmen to replace 12 combined TFL immediately is a stretch, and Iowa's already thin pass-rush numbers up front figure to get tested again in 2026.
Xavier Nwankpa's 76 tackles and TJ Hall's 47 walk out the door, leaving Zach Lutmer, who racked up 71 tackles and 5.5 TFL of his own, as the lone proven piece in a secondary that ranked 10th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. Deshaun Lee returns with 34 tackles to hold down a starting spot, but Iowa is banking heavily on newcomers to fill out the room, from four-star corner Darion Jones to safeties Anthony Hawkins and Cody Haddad, none of whom has significant college tape. That's a steep bet for a defense that finished 9th in yards allowed per game, and Lutmer's ability to organize a largely unproven back end will decide whether that ranking holds.
Iowa is replacing its placekicker with another placekicker rather than hoping a young leg develops: Eli Ozick arrives from North Dakota State having gone 16 of 18 with a long of 54, a direct swap for Drew Stevens, who left after making 22 of 27 with 107 points. The bigger hole is at punter, where Rhys Dakin's 42 punts at a 43.6 average walk out the door with no returning numbers on file behind them, leaving Boston Everitt and Tanner Philpott to sort out that job with zero college stats between them. Caden Buhr returns at kicker without game numbers of his own, but Ozick's proven production makes him the name to watch on this unit in 2026.
Iowa spent the offseason importing production instead of develop-and-wait, and L.J. Phillips Jr. is the headliner, arriving from South Dakota off a 1,860-yard, 19-touchdown season to replace Jaziun Patterson's modest ground work. The bigger swing is under center, where Mark Gronowski's uneven final year (10 TD, 7 INT) gives way to Hank Brown, who has thrown all of 107 yards in his career, meaning Ferentz is trusting projection over proof at the position that decides how far this offense goes. On defense, Karson Sharar, Xavier Nwankpa and Koen Entringer all leave real tackle production behind, and the fixes are cheaper bets like safeties Tyler Brown and Anthony Hawkins and edge rusher Lance Ingold, a group built on volume more than pedigree.
Iowa's ground game is stacked enough to carry a shaky passer, with Kamari Moulton back off 878 yards and South Dakota transfer L.J. Phillips Jr. arriving off a 1860-yard, 19-touchdown season. But Mark Gronowski's exit leaves Hank Brown, who has thrown for just 107 yards in his career, projected to run the offense, and how much he can complete to DJ Vonnahme when defenses stack the box for the backfield will decide whether this stays a 9-win team or slips.
Iowa covered 9-3-1 and finished 9-4 largely because the offense scored on 10.9 yards per point against a 14.1 league median, an efficiency streak that rarely survives to the next season. The defense told a different story, letting opponents earn 17.7 yards per point, bending without breaking, and the yardage margin against conference foes implied a lower win rate than the 66.7% Iowa actually posted. That gap between how this team played and how it won is the real signal for 2026, and it points toward Kirk Ferentz's group taking a step back even before accounting for who is on the field.
15 more sections in the full Iowa Hawkeyes preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.