Arizona State Sun Devils 2026 Season Preview

The Record Was a Mirage

Kenny Dillingham's fourth year opens with a warning sign buried in the fine print: an 8-5 mark rode a 5-2 record in one-score games and a defense that let opponents earn every yard (14.6 yards per point allowed), both trends that tend to snap back. The offense was actually the problem, needing 16.2 yards to find the end zone against a 14.1 league median, and with only 23% of the production returning, Arizona State has to find those points from largely new pieces rather than assume last year's close-game magic repeats. The turnover margin sat at -6, so that part should actually help in 2026, but the overall verdict is regression, not repeat, for a team whose No. 44 power rating already outran its 2025 results.

Volume Without Finishing

Arizona State piled up 417 yards a game in 2025 but converted just 32.6% of third downs and squeezed out only 3.37 points per scoring trip, the gap between chunk production and actual points that defined last season. Cutter Boley arrives from Kentucky to take over the offense after throwing for 2,160 yards and 15 touchdowns, and fixing that red-zone and money-down inefficiency is squarely on him now. The defense already has the pieces to keep games close, with 86 tackles for loss and an 18.8% havoc rate, so Boley does not need to be spectacular, just more decisive in the situations that stalled Arizona State a year ago.

Sam Leavitt is gone, and Arizona State replaced him not with an unproven backup but with Cutter Boley, who arrives from Kentucky to run Kenny Dillingham's offense. Boley's 2160 yards, 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions at Kentucky show a passer capable of pushing the ball but prone to mistakes, which matters for a Sun Devils attack that ranked 125th in third down rate and 103rd in points per scoring opportunity a year ago despite gaudy overall yardage. The run game averaged 193 yards per game and should carry the offense early while Boley settles in behind a line that allowed 27 sacks, with Jake Fette and Mikey Keene waiting as developmental pieces rather than threats to the job.

Raleek Brown's 1,141 rushing yards and Kanye Udoh's production both walked out the door, and Arizona State replaced that load with volume rather than promoting from within. Marquis Gillis arrives off a 1,145-yard, 7-touchdown season at Delaware State to be the workhorse, with David Avit's 687 yards and 8 scores from Villanova adding a second proven ball-carrier alongside four-star Cardae Mack. Jason Brown Jr. (137 yards, 1 TD) and Kyson Brown (106 yards) return as depth, but the ground game that ranked 27th nationally now belongs to the transfers.

Jordyn Tyson's 61 catches and 711 yards walk out the door, and Arizona State didn't wait around to replace him internally. Omarion Miller (807 yards at Colorado) and Reed Harris (673 yards at Boston College) arrive as ready-made outside targets, with Derek Eusebio's 341 yards the only real returning production left to lean on. This is a near-total transplant at receiver, and given the passing game ranked 69th in yards per game a year ago, the transfer duo needs to hit immediately rather than develop into the role.

Chamon Metayer's 38 catches and 375 yards walked out the door with Cameron Harpole's 13 grabs, leaving a room where Khamari Anderson's 5 catches for 24 yards is the only tangible production left standing. Arizona State answered by going outside almost entirely, bringing in four newcomers led by four-star Hayden Vercher alongside Landen Miree, Anthony Miller and Kristian Ingman, none of whom have caught a college pass. That is a lot of unproven bodies for an offense that already ranked 103rd in points per scoring opportunity, and it puts real weight on Vercher to produce more as a true freshman than this group did a year ago.

Kenny Dillingham watched his front give up 27 sacks and post a 32.6% third-down rate (125th) in 2025 even while the run game churned out 193 yards per game, and the fix leans on volume rather than a single savior. Seniors Doughless Teloma and Jalen Klemm anchor a group that returns 16 bodies against seven departures, with juniors Jarmaine Mitchell, Makua Pule and Siosaia Lapuaho adding experience up front. The reinforcements arrive up front too, with tackles Cortavious Tisaby and Luke Baklenko and interior additions Tana Alo-Tupuola, Marques Uini and Niniva Nicholson brought in to push for jobs, though none has proven anything at this level yet, and Arizona State needs the returning group to convert its numbers into fewer negative plays before the newcomers are ready to start.

Clayton Smith's 4 sacks and 6.5 TFL are the foundation of a line that produced 34 sacks and 86 tackles for loss a year ago, good for a top-16 havoc rate, but the production that put opponents behind schedule left with Justin Wodtly (6.5 sacks), Elijah O'Neal (4.5 sacks) and Prince Dorbah (4 sacks). Arizona State replaced that push through the portal, adding Jalen Thompson from Michigan State (2.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL at Michigan State) and Emar'rion Winston from Baylor (4 sacks, 6 TFL at Baylor) to pair with C.J. Fite's 6.5 TFL. With six linemen gone and edge help from four-star Julian Hugo still unproven at this level, the run defense that ranked 31st against the ground game should hold, but replicating last year's sack total falls on the newcomers more than the holdovers.

Jordan Crook and Keyshaun Elliott combined for 22 tackles for loss and 9 sacks last season, and both are gone, gutting the disruptive edge that fueled a defense ranked 22nd in sacks and 15th in havoc rate. Arizona State didn't patch the hole internally, it bought a proven one in Owen Long, who piled up 148 tackles and 5 TFL at Colorado State and steps in as the new signal-caller of this front seven. Martell Hughes returns as the leading returning tackler with 39 stops, but the real swing factor is whether Long can replicate the disruption Crook and Elliott provided against a Big 12 slate, especially with the pass defense already a soft spot at 95th nationally in yards allowed per game.

Myles Rowser's 84 tackles and Keith Abney II's 44 walk out the door, and Arizona State answers not with continuity but with a transfer haul: Lyrik Rawls arrives from Kansas after a 72-tackle season and Jessiah McGrew joins from Florida International off 67 stops, both projected to start alongside holdover Adrian Wilson, who posted 57 tackles a year ago. That mix matters because the pass defense allowed 233 yards per game (95th nationally) while the front generated 34 sacks and a 18.8% havoc rate, so the new safeties inherit a defense that can pressure the quarterback but has to tighten coverage behind it. Montana Warren's 40 tackles give the back end another returning piece, but the bulk of 2026's coverage answers come from the portal class rather than last year's roster.

Jesus Gomez's 99 points and 22-of-30 kicking leave with him, handing Carston Kieffer the placekicking job with nothing on his résumé to lean on, while Austin Peay transfer Carson Smith arrives as competition with the same blank slate. The bigger swing is at punter, where incumbent Kanyon Floyd (36 punts, 41.4 average) now shares the room with Ohio State transfer Nick McLarty, who flashed a 45-yard average on just one attempt last season. Arizona State's net punting should hold steady with Floyd doing the bulk of the work, but the placekicking situation is a legitimate question mark until Kieffer or Smith proves he can hit from distance.

New Arm, New Identity

Arizona State is rebuilding around Cutter Boley, the Kentucky transfer taking over after Sam Leavitt's departure, and his 12 interceptions a year ago against 15 touchdowns say this offense trades some steadiness for arm talent. He'll need his new weapons fast, with Colorado's Omarion Miller and Boston College's Reed Harris replacing Jordyn Tyson's production while Marquis Gillis and David Avit split the load left by Raleek Brown. The bigger swing might be on defense, where Owen Long arrives from Colorado State to help cover for the combined departures of Jordan Crook and Keyshaun Elliott, a linebacker corps that's basically been rebuilt from scratch.

Marquis Gillis

Raleek Brown's 1,141 yards walk out the door, and Arizona State handed the backfield to Marquis Gillis, a Delaware State transfer who put up 1,145 yards at a lower level and now has to prove it against Big 12 fronts. Cutter Boley threw 12 interceptions at Kentucky, which means the run game cannot just complement him, it has to cover for him, and Gillis is the one who determines whether that math works.

Sun Devils Bounce Back

The number that jumps off this card is 4-0 covering the week after a loss, a near-automatic bounce that bettors should keep chasing into 2026. That resilience does not show up at home as a favorite, where Arizona State went just 1-3-1 against the spread, a jarring split for a team that beat its number on the road at 60%. Kenny Dillingham's group is a public letdown at home and a sharp play as a road underdog, and until that reverses, the smart money follows the Sun Devils out of the Valley rather than backing them as chalk in Tempe.