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NFL playoff scenarios · 2026

NFL playoff scenarios, Week 7

What every team needs to make the playoffs.

What every team needs from Week 7 on, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The biggest game for one team: the Bengals go to 74% with a win over the Ravens and 41% with a loss. No team has clinched a spot or been eliminated yet.

AFC

Team
Now
Win
Loss
Chiefs5-0
94%
98%
89%
Next: at Seahawks, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 5-7
Jaguars4-2
87%
92%
71%
Next: vs. Colts, Week 8 · 10 wins: go 6-5
Bills5-1
79%
89%
66%
Next: vs. Ravens, Week 8 · 11 wins: go 6-5
Patriots4-3
72%
81%
53%
Next: at Dolphins, Week 8 · 10 wins: go 6-4
Bengals3-2
57%
74%
41%
Next: at Ravens, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 8-4
Steelers4-2
57%
67%
43%
Next: at Saints, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 7-4
Ravens4-2
55%
70%
39%
Next: vs. Bengals, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 7-4
Broncos4-2
50%
61%
35%
Next: at Cardinals, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 7-4
Browns4-2
48%
59%
32%
Next: at Titans, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 7-4
Raiders3-3
38%
48%
24%
Next: vs. Rams, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 8-3
Texans2-4
26%
33%
14%
Next: vs. Giants, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 9-2
Jets2-4
23%
29%
10%
Next: vs. Dolphins, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Colts2-4
10%
20%
7%
Next: at Vikings, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 9-2
Titans1-5
2%
4%
1%
Next: vs. Browns, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 9-2
Dolphins0-5
1%
3%
1%
Next: at Jets, Week 7 · Out of reach
Chargers0-6
<1%
1%
<1%
Next: at Rams, Week 8 · Out of reach

NFC

Team
Now
Win
Loss
49ers6-0
98%
99%
96%
Next: at Falcons, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 4-7
Vikings5-0
94%
96%
87%
Next: vs. Colts, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 5-7
Bears5-2
83%
92%
72%
Next: at Seahawks, Week 8 · 11 wins: go 6-4
Panthers3-2
71%
81%
53%
Next: vs. Buccaneers, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 7-5
Packers4-2
57%
75%
42%
Next: at Lions, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 7-4
Lions3-2
53%
67%
34%
Next: vs. Packers, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 8-4
Seahawks3-3
49%
62%
38%
Next: vs. Chiefs, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 7-4
Giants3-2-1
47%
64%
37%
Next: at Texans, Week 7 · 9 wins: go 6-5
Cowboys2-4
33%
47%
18%
Next: at Eagles, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Falcons2-4
29%
43%
19%
Next: vs. 49ers, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Eagles2-4
23%
36%
11%
Next: vs. Cowboys, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Rams2-4
20%
31%
13%
Next: at Raiders, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Saints2-4
16%
24%
10%
Next: vs. Steelers, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 8-3
Buccaneers1-5
12%
23%
6%
Next: at Panthers, Week 7 · 10 wins: go 9-2
Commanders1-4-1
11%
17%
4%
Next: vs. Eagles, Week 8 · 10 wins: go 9-2
Cardinals2-4
6%
11%
3%
Next: vs. Broncos, Week 7 · 11 wins: go 9-2

Now is the playoff chance today; Win and Loss are the chance after the next game goes each way. Gets them in is the fewest final wins that made the playoffs in at least 90% of the simulations where a team finished there, and the record over the games left that takes. Clinched and eliminated are proved from the standings.

Build your own scenario

Pick the winners of the games left and watch every team's odds move in the NFL playoff machine. The link keeps your picks, so you can share the exact scenario.

Questions

Which NFL teams have been eliminated from the playoffs?

None yet: no team is mathematically out. Below 5%: the Dolphins (1%), the Titans (2%), the Chargers (<1%).

How many wins does it take to make the NFL playoffs?

This season, for a typical team, about 10: that total gets most clubs in at least 90% of the time in the simulations. It depends on the division and the schedule, so each team's own number is in the table.

How are these scenarios worked out?

From 10,000 simulations of every game left. A team's chance after a win or a loss is its playoff rate across the simulations where that game went each way; the win total that gets it in is the fewest final wins that made the playoffs at least 90% of the time. Clinched and eliminated are proved from the standings, not simulated.