NFL playoff odds 2026

AFC

Team

Proj.

Playoffs

Div.

Bye

SB

Chiefs5-0

12.5

93%

79%

41%

13%

Jaguars4-2

11.2

86%

78%

13%

9%

Bills5-1

11.0

79%

47%

14%

5%

Patriots4-2

10.5

78%

46%

10%

6%

Steelers4-2

9.9

57%

27%

4%

3%

Bengals3-2

9.9

56%

27%

6%

4%

Ravens4-2

9.8

55%

25%

4%

3%

Broncos4-2

9.4

49%

13%

3%

2%

Browns4-2

9.4

48%

21%

2%

1%

Raiders3-3

8.8

37%

8%

1%

1%

Texans2-4

7.8

25%

14%

<1%

1%

Jets2-4

7.5

22%

7%

1%

1%

Colts2-4

6.8

11%

6%

<1%

<1%

Titans1-5

4.7

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

Dolphins0-5

4.2

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

Chargers0-6

3.5

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

NFC

Team

Proj.

Playoffs

Div.

Bye

SB

49ers6-0

13.1

98%

90%

47%

13%

Vikings5-0

12.4

94%

63%

34%

12%

Bears4-2

10.4

75%

16%

5%

6%

Panthers3-2

9.6

70%

62%

5%

4%

Packers4-2

9.4

57%

9%

2%

2%

Lions3-2

9.3

55%

12%

3%

3%

Seahawks3-3

9.0

50%

8%

2%

2%

Giants3-2-1

7.8

48%

43%

1%

1%

Cowboys2-4

7.6

35%

30%

<1%

1%

Falcons2-4

7.4

30%

18%

<1%

1%

Eagles2-4

6.8

22%

19%

<1%

<1%

Rams2-4

7.2

20%

2%

<1%

1%

Saints2-4

6.8

17%

12%

<1%

<1%

Buccaneers1-5

5.9

12%

8%

<1%

<1%

Commanders1-4-1

5.4

11%

8%

<1%

<1%

Cardinals2-4

6.2

6%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Proj. is average wins over the full season. Div. is winning the division; Bye is the No. 1 seed; SB is winning the Super Bowl. Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.