Florida International Panthers 2026 Season Preview

The Regression Ledger

A 7-6 debut for Willie Simmons looked like a program on the rise, but the underlying numbers point the other way for year two. FIU's 5-3 mark in conference play ran well ahead of what its yardage margin against those same league opponents actually supported, and an offense that needed just 13.9 yards per point was finishing drives at a rate unlikely to hold up again. With only 30% of its production back and a defense that let opponents score too cheaply at 13.7 yards per point, the more honest number on this page is the No. 119 power rating, and 2026 reads like the correction year.

New Arm, Same Ground Game

FIU's identity in 2026 still runs through the ground game that ranked 36th nationally in rushing a year ago, but the passing offense that finished 87th needs a jolt, and that jolt arrives via App State transfer JJ Kohl, now the settled starter with no FIU stat history to lean on. The bigger concern sits on defense, where a unit that allowed 250 passing yards per game (119th) and 412 total yards per game (110th) has to tighten up if Willie Simmons wants a cleaner path back to the same win total. Kohl doesn't need to be spectacular, just competent enough to let the run game and a defense with 30 sacks dictate terms.

FIU's passing game produced 1742 yards and 9 touchdowns from Keyone Jenkins and 1021 yards and 11 touchdowns from Joe Pesansky last season, and both are gone, along with Clayton Dees. JJ Kohl, a three-star arrival from App State, steps directly into that void as the starter, with none of the returning quarterbacks having thrown a meaningful pass. The ground game stays the foundation either way at 182 rushing yards per game, but Kohl's ability to lift a passing attack that ranked 87th in yards per game will decide whether FIU's offense climbs past 61st in scoring.

Kejon Owens and his 1,334 yards are gone, and nobody left in the room comes close to replacing that workload on paper. Anthony Carrie is the closest thing to a proven option after his 469-yard, 5-touchdown season, but FIU is banking on him to go from complementary piece to lead back behind a line that helped the ground game rank 36th nationally in yards per game. Devonte Lyons and Sterling Joseph give Willie Simmons some rotation depth, while three-star signees Jayden Ford and Justin Compere arrive with no college tape, meaning the carries FIU needs to keep that rushing identity intact will fall almost entirely on Carrie in 2026.

FIU never had a true lead receiver last fall, splitting targets among a group topping out at Kyle McNeal's 310 yards, and the passing game paid for it, sitting 87th nationally. Greg Gaines III changes that arithmetic immediately, arriving from Rhode Island off a 65-catch, 1,018-yard season that dwarfs anything this room produced in 2025. With McNeal, Jojo Stone and Maguire Anderson back underneath him and Barrett Schulz added to the mix, Gaines gives Willie Simmons the first legitimate No. 1 target of his tenure, and a passing attack that was the offense's weak link now has a reason to catch up to the ground game.

Dallas Payne's 27 catches and 4 touchdowns walk out the door, leaving Jackson Verdugo, who caught just 10 balls a year ago, as the only proven pass-catcher at the position. Rhode Island transfer Kevin Schaeffer arrives with modest numbers of his own, 2 catches for 58 yards but 2 scores, hinting at big-play ability FIU needs given a passing game that ranked 87th nationally in yards per game. With three-star signees Ayden Passley and Davis Brown also unproven, this group leans on Verdugo to carry the receiving load while the staff bets Schaeffer's touchdown knack translates against tougher competition.

That 182 rushing yards per game a year ago (36th nationally) came behind a front that is almost entirely turning over, with 11 linemen gone and only Nickolas Molina, Zaire Flournoy, Noah Fernandez, Oscar Colon and Akeem Neal back as the senior-class core Willie Simmons has to lean on. FIU is patching the gaps with transfers Daveion Harley (California) and Spencer Webb (Eastern Michigan) inside, plus tackles Manasseh Ripert (Western Carolina) and freshman Riley Wilson, none of whom bring a track record here. With a 40.7% success rate (93rd) and 23 sacks allowed already exposing this group last year, the ground game that carried the offense is the thing most at risk of regressing in 2026.

FIU loses Kenton Simmons (7 sacks, 9 TFL) and Quaylen Hill (2 sacks, 4 TFL), the two most disruptive linemen off a unit that already allowed 250 passing yards per game (119th) and 412 total. Willie Simmons went to the portal to South Alabama twice for replacements, landing RJ Moss Jr. (24 tackles) and Nathan Jennings (2 sacks, 2 TFL), while Dante Anderson (3 sacks, 5 TFL) and Germaine Carter (18 tackles) are the only proven returning pass-rush pieces. With that much production gone and five newcomers expected to play immediately, the pass rush that produced 30 sacks (42nd nationally) is more likely to take a step back before it takes one forward.

Johnny Chaney Jr.'s 107 tackles walk out the door, but Josiah Taylor's 71 tackles and 6.5 TFL make him the clear centerpiece of this group heading into 2026. Percy Courtney Jr. brings real pass-rush disruption with 7 TFL of his own, and App State transfer Brayshawn Littlejohn arrives with 32 tackles and 2 sacks of starting experience to plug the gap Chaney leaves. That matters given a pass defense that gave up 250 yards a game through the air, 119th nationally, since Taylor, Courtney and Littlejohn will need to hold up in coverage as much as they stack the run.

Shamir Sterlin, who racked up 62 tackles and 2.5 TFL, is the lone proven cover man returning for a pass defense that gave up 250 yards per game through the air, 119th nationally. FIU leaned on the portal to patch that leak, landing Wesley Miller from South Alabama, who posted 53 tackles and 1.5 TFL last season, to start immediately at safety alongside Sterlin. With Brian Blades II and Ashton Levells gone and the rest of the incoming class made up of unproven high schoolers like Dominic Turnbull and Zay West, Miller's snaps matter more than any name on this list beside Sterlin.

Noah Grant's 69 points and 14 of 18 field goals walk out the door, leaving Robert Czeremcha, who went just 2 of 3 with a 39-yard long in limited work, as the incumbent placekicker. FIU also loses Trey Wilhoit and his 43.4-yard punting average, pushing returners Stone Springman and Conrad Tolerico into a job neither has any recorded stats to claim yet. Three-star Chaminade-Madonna product Noah Sidan arrives with no college numbers on file, giving Willie Simmons a camp battle at kicker rather than a settled answer for 2026.

A Whole New Backfield Picture

Kejon Owens and his 1,334 rushing yards are gone, and so is every quarterback who threw a pass for FIU last fall, with both Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky off the roster. JJ Kohl, in from App State, now runs the offense with no prior college stats to lean on, which makes this as much a leap of faith as a plan. The bigger investment sits on defense, where Brayshawn Littlejohn and a trio of South Alabama transfers in Wesley Miller, RJ Moss Jr. and Nathan Jennings arrive to replace Johnny Chaney Jr.'s 107 tackles and Mister Clark's production on the back end, betting that a rebuilt front seven can cover for an offense figuring itself out on the fly.

Greg Gaines III

Kejon Owens is gone and JJ Kohl is running the offense with zero prior stats to lean on, which puts the burden on Greg Gaines III, who arrives from Rhode Island off a 65-catch, 1018-yard season. Kyle McNeal returns as a proven complementary target, but Gaines is the only proven big-play threat brought in to make an unproven quarterback's life easier, and if he produces at that same clip, FIU's passing game covers for the backfield loss instead of compounding it.

Bettors Are Ahead of the Line

Florida International covered 8-5 last season, and the market still hasn't caught up to what Willie Simmons built in year one. The Panthers were nearly automatic as home favorites at 3-1 (75% cover) and stayed profitable even in losing efforts on the road, covering 3-2 as underdogs away from home. That combination of a program getting better faster than oddsmakers can adjust is the real carryover into 2026, not the 7-6 record itself.