































































































































Mid-American · Alonzo Carter, year 1 · 7-5 last season · No. 111 in our FBS ratings
Alonzo Carter opens his tenure by importing Fresno State transfer Carson Conklin to run an offense that managed just 17.0 points a game last season, betting that a new quarterback matters more than the fact 15% of the roster's production actually returns.
Can Carson Conklin function behind a roster that returns just 9.2% of its offensive production? Almost everything Conklin threw to or handed off to a year ago is gone, and with the defense also returning only 20.3% of its snaps under a first-year staff led by Alonzo Carter, the likely outcome is a rocky first half while Conklin and a nearly all-new offense sort out chemistry on the fly. The most probable path is growing pains early, with Conklin's transfer experience mattering more in November than September.
Alonzo Carter takes over a schedule ranked 136th in difficulty, and the projected 6-6 mark reflects a slate stacked with winnable Mid-American dates against Kent State, Massachusetts and North Dakota State. The season turns on three road-heavy tests: a trip to Hawai'i (25% win), a visit to Fresno State (26%), and a home date with Toledo (38%) that looms as the toughest conference test on paper. Split even two of those three and the bowl math at 70% odds looks conservative rather than generous.
Every Premium Issue is included with Major League, or you can buy one on its own. Same treatment as the book you just read: a page for every team, the projections behind it, and the games that decide the season.
Alonzo Carter steps into a program that just went 7-5, which changes the equation for year one. He is not rebuilding from scratch, he is stepping into a roster that already knows how to win, even as the No. 111 power rating says the sport still views this as a program well outside the top tier. The gap between that modest ranking and last year's winning record is the real story here, and Carter's first year is about proving which one is the truer read on Sacramento State.
Sacramento State went 7-5 while ranking 130th in points per game, meaning a defense that held opponents to 20.0 a night carried a stagnant offense. That imbalance now rests on Carson Conklin, the Fresno State transfer installed as the 2026 starter after throwing for just 354 yards with only 1 touchdown against 2 interceptions last season. Alonzo Carter takes over hoping his defense can mask another season of grinding, low-scoring football until Conklin proves he can actually move the ball.
Cardell Williams' 1,621 passing yards are gone, and so is the entire quarterback room that produced a 130th-ranked scoring offense in 2025. Carson Conklin, who threw for 354 yards at Fresno State, arrives as the established starter, with Jaylen Patterson and Liam Meeker added purely as depth behind him rather than competitors for the job. Jamar Malone's 3 rushing yards are the only returning production at the position, which makes Conklin's transfer track record, thin as it is, the entire foundation Sacramento State is building its 2026 passing game around.
Rodney Hammond Jr. took 1214 yards and 13 touchdowns out the door, and Damian Henderson II's 565 yards left with him, so the entire ground game now rests on transfers. Davion Godley arrives from Weber State off a 512-yard, 4-touchdown season and projects as the clear early-down answer, while Cincere Rhaney's modest 19 yards at San Diego State make him more complementary piece than headliner. With Ajon Bryant's only proven production a pair of catches for 58 yards and Curron Borders and Elias Brown unproven, Godley's transition has to carry an offense that managed just 17.0 points per game, 130th nationally, a year ago.
Ernest Campbell's 37 catches for 755 yards and 8 touchdowns walk out the door, leaving Jordan Anderson, whose 24 grabs for 361 yards were the only other real production on the 2025 roster, as the closest thing to a proven target. Alonzo Carter turned to the portal to patch the gap, landing Matthew Coleman, who caught 20 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown at San José State, and Ellijah Washington, a transfer addition from Oregon State without a stat line yet on file. With a passing attack that helped produce just 17.0 points per game a year ago, this group is largely unproven together, and Anderson's ability to become a real No. 1 target will decide whether Sacramento State's offense climbs out of the bottom tier nationally in scoring.
Jordan Williams is the only tight end on this roster with real receiving numbers from a year ago, 11 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown, and he inherits a room that lost both of its touchdown scorers in Gavin Nelson and Bear Tenney. Cedric Anton and Jack Hodge arrive as three-star signees without a college catch between them, while Kyle Koontz brings actual production from Houston Christian, 7 catches for 71 yards and a score, giving new coach Alonzo Carter a transfer who can push for snaps immediately. With an offense that managed just 17.0 points per game, 130th nationally, this group needs Williams and Koontz to be more than complementary pieces.
A 17.0-point scoring average, 130th nationally, tells the real story of what this line produced last fall, and Alonzo Carter inherits that mess in his first year on the job. There is no name in these facts to point to as the anchor up front, which itself signals how much of the group needs to be pieced together from outside the returning nucleus. Until Carter identifies a workable five, expect the ground game and pocket protection to stay the bottleneck behind that offense.
Sacramento State is rebuilding its front almost entirely from scratch, and the numbers on the depth chart barely register: Xavier Williams' 3 tackles are the most production returning to the room. New coach Alonzo Carter leaned on the transfer market and high school recruiting alike to restock, bringing in Fresno State edge Isiah Chala Jr., Florida A&M's Nick Dimitris and Wisconsin's Jamel Howard Jr. as portal additions alongside true freshman signee Devyn Blake out of Edison. With Melvin Swindle II and the rest of last year's line gone, this group's 2026 identity gets written from zero rather than inherited, and it will be the transfers who are asked to produce first.
None of the returning linebackers carry meaningful tackle numbers, and the group that produced last season, Derek Houston's 9 tackles, Oscar Moore and Deven Wright's 5 tackles apiece, is gone. Alonzo Carter's staff is leaning on unproven bodies and fresh blood to replace that production, with Diego Davis's 6 tackles the closest thing to a returning stat line and Fresno State transfer Tim Thomas, who logged 6 tackles himself, brought in to start right away. High school signees Jiah Walls, Leki Holani and Iosefa Lealofi arrive with no game experience, so a defense that ranked 25th in points allowed per game last year is banking on a first-year coordinator system to develop talent on the fly rather than plug in known commodities.
Sacramento State is essentially rebuilding its secondary through the portal rather than its own room, importing Dionte Thornton (10 tackles at Portland State), Darson Jeanty (6 tackles, 1.5 TFL at Lafayette) and Boogsie Silvera (5 tackles at South Florida) to replace departed safeties Jalen Williams, Kaleb Higgins and Anta'Veon McKenzie. At corner, Colorado transfer Noah King and Miami transfer Amari Wallace arrive to pair with returning starters Elias Mullican and Adam Taylor, who combined for just 3 tackles last season. With Jojo Solis, Lono Chouteau, Yebrell Emerson and Diesel Gordon back at safety but light on production, the new arrivals aren't competing for jobs so much as inheriting them outright for a defense that allowed 20.0 points per game (25th nationally in that category) in 2025.
Grant Meadors is the one settled piece of this unit, coming off a 12-of-14 season with a 42-yard long and 87 points, and Sacramento State can build around him under new head coach Alonzo Carter. The bigger question is punt duty, where Cal McGough and his 41.3-yard average are gone and Hamish Adams or Mike Melanson has to take over that job cold, since neither has logged a stat in this role. Joseph Firebaugh returns without game numbers of his own, and Junipero Serra product Saul Marks arrives to push for kicks, but Meadors' leg is the only proven commodity here.
Rodney Hammond Jr. (1214 yards, 13 TD) and Cardell Williams (1621 yards, 10 TD) are both gone, and Sacramento State replaced that production almost entirely through the portal rather than in-house. Carson Conklin arrives from Fresno State to take over at quarterback after throwing for 354 yards with 2 interceptions there, pairing with Weber State import Davion Godley (512 yards, 4 TD) to form a backfield-to-passing-game combo built from outside pieces. With a 125th-ranked recruiting class and 25 transfers in, Alonzo Carter's first season rides almost entirely on whether Conklin and Godley translate their modest prior numbers into a bigger role immediately.
Rodney Hammond Jr.'s 1,214 yards and 13 scores are gone, and Sacramento State handed the backfield to Davion Godley, a Weber State transfer who managed 512 yards on the ground last season. Carson Conklin arrives at quarterback off a 354-yard, 1-touchdown, 2-interception sample, which means this offense needs Godley to grind out yards on early downs rather than lean on a passing attack still finding its footing.
Alonzo Carter enters Alonzo Carter's first year with almost no market history to lean on, just a single game logged, a road loss that still covered as an underdog. That thin sample matters because it lines up with the bigger transition, a new coaching staff taking over a 7-5 team means oddsmakers have little to go on, and the one data point suggests this program has kept games closer than its actual outcomes. Until conference and home lines build a real track record, bettors are essentially pricing Carter's debut season blind.
15 more sections in the full Sacramento State Hornets preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.
Scores, schedules, rosters and statistics come from public sports data feeds and are for information only. Odds, projections and win probabilities are for entertainment only and are not betting advice. Team names and marks belong to their owners and identify the clubs we cover. © 2026 MainMarket.com. All rights reserved.