Air Force Falcons 2026 Season Preview

Two Decades In

Troy Calhoun heads into year 20 off a 4-8 season that included a losing conference mark at 3-5, and the No. 93 power rating reflects a program that slipped from the standard Calhoun has set over nearly two decades. That track record buys context that a first-time staff would not get, but 2026 is about whether the option attack and Air Force's discipline on both sides of the ball can climb back toward the level this tenure has hit before. The longevity is real, and so is the dip that produced it.

Same Engine, Same Leak

Air Force's offense doesn't need reinvention, it needs the defense to catch up. Liam Szarka returns after a 1,294-yard, 9-TD season running Troy Calhoun's option attack that already ranks 3rd nationally in rushing yards per game, and that ground game should keep the offense efficient regardless of who lines up around him. The real story is a defense that finished 135th in yards per play allowed and 133rd in havoc rate, numbers so far behind the offense's production that Air Force's ceiling in 2026 depends entirely on whether that unit can find stops it hasn't found in years.

Liam Szarka is the returning triggerman for the option attack, and his 1294 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions came inside an offense that leaned almost entirely on the ground game, ranking 3rd nationally in rushing yards per game (262) while sitting 128th in passing output (145 yards per game). That lopsided split is the real story for 2026: Air Force does not need Szarka to air it out, it needs him to protect the ball and keep converting on third down, where this offense ranked 7th nationally at 51.0%. Josh Johnson's 374 yards and 4 touchdowns in relief give Troy Calhoun a proven change-up, but the offense's ceiling still rises or falls with Szarka's decision-making in an attack built to control the clock, not the stat sheet.

Air Force's option attack barely needs a shakeup, and that's the point: Owen Allen (749 yards, 5 TD) and Dylan Carson (419 yards, 4 TD) both return behind a ground game that finished 3rd nationally in rushing yards per game. Kade Frew adds a proven third option with 285 yards of his own, so the carries pile up behind a trio that's already logged real production rather than promise. The newcomers, Ben Bucher and Grady Kinsey, arrive as depth pieces in a scheme that will keep leaning on its returning backs to mask a passing game that ranked 128th nationally in yards per game.

Air Force's passing game finished 128th nationally, but that number says more about Calhoun's option-heavy priorities than his receivers, and the top three targets are all back. Cade Harris (35 catches, 584 yards) is the clear focal point, with Quin Smith's four touchdowns on just 15 catches hinting at big-play burst if he sees more volume, and Jonah Dawson adding a steady third option. None of the incoming group of Merrik Bloomgren, Kobe Dooley, Rakim Finch, Aidan Stewart or Tyson Davis carries prior production, so 2026 growth in the passing attack rides on the returning trio stretching a run-first offense that ranked 3rd in rushing yards per game a year ago.

In Troy Calhoun's option attack, the tight end is a blocker first, and Bruin Fleischmann's 6 touchdowns on just 21 catches last season prove how little volume it takes to matter in this scheme. He anchors a group getting three new bodies in Mason Riddle, Henry Hauge and Luke Pastis, but the real story is the ground game those tight ends spring loose, 262 rushing yards per game that ranked 3rd nationally while the passing attack sat 128th. With Mitchell Blakeslee, Simon Kibbee, Parker Menefee and Omari Murdock all back without a catch to their names, Fleischmann's blocking and occasional big play remain the only proven commodity at the position.

Air Force's ground game churned out 262 yards per game on the strength of a line Troy Calhoun barely has to touch, with senior anchors Gabriel Averitt and Jack Burnett back alongside Jackson Garrett to keep running the same option scheme that finished 3rd nationally in rushing yards per game. That continuity matters more than any single addition, since none of the incoming names, tackle Brady Wyatt or interior linemen Lucas Hillsten, Caleb Rye, Jacob Beatty and Brock Schlef, arrive with a track record and figure to compete for depth rather than immediate snaps. The bigger 2026 question is whether this veteran group can push the passing game off a 128th-ranked mark, since the run-blocking is proven but explosiveness at 88th nationally suggests the offense still needs more from its play-action shots than the line alone can create.

This front produced 15 sacks and 40 tackles for loss a year ago, numbers that landed Air Force among the bottom tier nationally in havoc rate and run-stuff rate, and the group that generated even that much is largely walking back out. Payton Zdroik, who posted 36 tackles and 6 TFL, is gone, leaving Aidan Swartz (21 tackles, 3 TFL) and Daniel Grobe (20 tackles) as the returning anchors on a line that has to manufacture pressure with volume rather than singular playmakers. Five newcomers, led by edge prospects Blaze Jones and Xander Shaw, arrive with no college production to lean on, so the immediate fix for a pass defense that allowed 265 yards per game through the air likely comes from Swartz, Grobe and Grady Forsythe growing into bigger roles rather than an instant infusion from the incoming class.

Blake Fletcher's 108 tackles anchored a group that still couldn't stop anybody, and the numbers explain why: 40 tackles for loss and a 10.7% havoc rate, both among the worst marks nationally, left Air Force gashed for 265 passing yards a game. Isaac Hubert's 11 TFL and 5 sacks were the rare disruptive presence in that unit, and with Dallas Daley, Brody Bujnoch and Jackson Adams all back alongside him, the returning production is there even as Jordan Shuler departs. The 2026 class of Henry Newton, Reed Ezell, Brady Kuhn, Ryder Skanson and Nick Rivera arrives to add bodies, but this defense needs Hubert to become an every-down disruptor, not just a fifth incoming freshman, if the run-stuff rate is going to climb out of the bottom tier.

A secondary that gave up 265 passing yards a game (128th) returns almost entirely intact, and that continuity is the problem, not the fix. Roger Jones Jr. (76 tackles) anchors a group with Korey Johnson, Mikhail Seiken and Levi Brown all back, but none of that production stopped Air Force from ranking 133rd in havoc rate a year ago. Five incoming safeties, led by Knight Wilson and Damian Horace, arrive to add bodies, but with no pass-rush push in front of them (123rd in sacks), this back end is set up to get exposed through the air again in 2026.

The one certainty on a 4-8 team is the specialists. Reagan Tubbs hit 7 of 9 field goals with a long of 52 last fall and returns to anchor the kicking game, while Luke Freer's 44.5-yard average gives Air Force a weapon that can flip field position for a team that needs every edge it can find. With Kurt Chesney and Jake Helms both back at long snapper behind Dominic Diaz's departure, the operation stays steady even as the punting job sorts out between Freer, Rocco D'Angelo and Will Duncan.

No Portal, No Panic

Air Force is running its 2026 build almost entirely on high school signees, zero transfers in against four out, a stark contrast to how most of the Mountain West is retooling. Troy Calhoun leans instead on continuity at quarterback with Liam Szarka, who threw for 1,294 yards and 9 touchdowns last season, while the defense has to replace Payton Zdroik's 36 tackles and 6 TFL without any portal reinforcement up front. A 141st-ranked class signals this roster gets better through development, not addition, which makes Szarka's steadiness the closest thing to a sure bet on the roster.

Liam Szarka's Second Year

Air Force brought in zero transfers and signed the No. 141 class, so there is no reinforcement coming for a 4-8 team, which means Liam Szarka's development is the whole story. His 1,294 yards came with 5 interceptions against 9 touchdowns, and with Owen Allen and Cade Harris back to hand off to and throw to, the offense only improves if Szarka cuts those turnovers down. If he does not, the ground game and Blake Fletcher's defense are left carrying a team with no fresh talent behind them.

Calhoun's Home Games Are a Trap

Betting Air Force at home has been a losing proposition, a 1-5 cover mark that includes a 1-2 stumble as a home favorite under Troy Calhoun. The number flips entirely once this team leaves Colorado Springs: 4-2 against the spread on the road, with a 75% cover rate as a road underdog. Until that home number changes, the play is fading Air Force at home and backing the Falcons the moment they travel.