NFL picks · Week 5 · Our model's call on every game, next to the line
NFL picks · Week 5
Washington is favored by three and a half. We have the Giants by eight.
Our picks for all 15 Week 5 games, with the score our model projects and the line the books are offering. Giants at Commanders is where we and the market disagree most. The model went 10‑6 last week and is 41‑23 on the season.
Our picks for all 15 Week 5 games, with the score our model projects and the line the books are offering. Giants at Commanders is where we and the market disagree most. The model went 10‑6 last week and is 41‑23 on the season.
Game
Line
Our score
Our pick
Win %
Giants at Commanders
Giants · WAS −3.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · the books favor Washington, we don't
WAS −3.5
NYG 26–18
Giants
69%
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Cowboys · DAL −8.5 · Thu 8:15 PM
DAL −8.5
DAL 29–19
Cowboys
73%
Eagles at Jaguars
Jaguars · JAX −7.5 · Sun 9:30 AM
JAX −7.5
JAX 25–19
Jaguars
65%
Texans at Titans
Texans · HOU −7.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · we have it closer than the line
HOU −7.5
HOU 22–18
Texans
60%
Bengals at Dolphins
Bengals · CIN −7.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · we have the Bengals by more
CIN −7.5
CIN 29–18
Bengals
75%
Raiders at Patriots
Patriots · NE −3.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · close to a coin flip for us
NE −3.5
NE 23–22
Patriots
52%
Browns at Jets
Jets · NYJ −2.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · we have the Jets by more
NYJ −2.5
NYJ 23–17
Jets
65%
Colts at Steelers
Steelers · PIT −2.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · we have the Steelers by more
PIT −2.5
PIT 24–18
Steelers
65%
Vikings at Saints
Vikings · MIN −2.5 · Sun 1:00 PM · close to a coin flip for us
MIN −2.5
MIN 23–21
Vikings
55%
Bears at Packers
Bears · CHI −3 · Sun 1:00 PM · close to a coin flip for us
CHI −3
CHI 24–23
Bears
52%
Broncos at Chargers
Broncos · DEN −3.5 · Sun 4:05 PM
DEN −3.5
DEN 24–20
Broncos
60%
Lions at Cardinals
Lions · DET −5.5 · Sun 4:25 PM
DET −5.5
DET 29–24
Lions
62%
49ers at Seahawks
Seahawks · SEA −3 · Sun 4:25 PM · close to a coin flip for us
SEA −3
SEA 25–24
Seahawks
52%
Ravens at Falcons
Ravens · ATL −3.5 · Sun 8:20 PM · the books favor Atlanta, we don't
ATL −3.5
BAL 26–21
Ravens
62%
Bills at Rams
Rams · LAR −3 · Mon 8:15 PM · close to a coin flip for us
LAR −3
LAR 28–26
Rams
55%
Our score is the model’s projection, frozen before kickoff, so the record can be checked against it. Line: the consensus of the books at the last odds sync. Win %: the model's chance the pick wins outright. Picks, not betting advice. 21+, where legal.