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Owen McCown returns to run an attack that already scored 35.5 points a game, so UTSA's 2026 ceiling comes down to whether a defense that bled 28.8 points a game a year ago can tighten up enough to turn shootouts into wins.
Can Jeff Traylor overhaul a defense that returns just 35% of its production from a unit that allowed the numbers already covered on this page? The likeliest path is a rocky start followed by improvement, since Traylor has to plug that many new pieces into the two-deep with almost no returning experience to lean on, and that kind of turnover rarely irons out before October. UTSA's offense can mask some of it, but a defense rebuilding this much of its depth chart is the swing factor on whether 2026 looks like a step forward or a repeat of last year's split conference record.
The trip to Texas is a paycheck game UTSA is not built to win, but the stretch that actually shapes the season sits later, at Tulane and at Texas State, the two conference road tests where the Roadrunners are underdogs. A projected 6-6 record leans on cashing in the manageable slate around those games, home dates with Colorado State and Tulsa plus trips to Rice and UAB, all pegged above a coin flip. Jeff Traylor's group does not need to steal the marquee road game to get back to a bowl, it needs to sweep the games it is supposed to win and split the toss-ups against South Florida and Navy at home.
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A 1-3 mark in one-score games and a plus-6 turnover margin tell the real story behind UTSA's 7-6 finish: Jeff Traylor's group was sturdier than the record showed and unlucky in the games that decide seasons. Against league opponents the offense outgained foes by 48.5 yards per game yet won at a lower rate than that margin implies, the mark of a team that should have banked more of those games rather than one riding a hot streak. The offense also scored efficiently, needing just 11.9 yards per point against a 14.1 league median, but the defense let opponents in cheap at 12.9, the piece Traylor has to tighten for the breakthrough to actually show up in the win column in 2026.
Owen McCown returns as the settled starter behind an offense that scored 35.5 points per game and ranked 23rd nationally in explosiveness, so the scoring punch is not the question. The issue is the defense, which allowed 28.8 points per game despite a havoc rate that ranked 18th nationally, a gap between disruption and results that Jeff Traylor has to close. If that defensive finish tightens even a little, UTSA's scoring attack with McCown at the controls makes this a rangier team than the 7-6 mark suggests.
Owen McCown holds the job, and that stability matters for an offense that already scored 35.5 points a game and ranked 23rd nationally in explosiveness. The stat line behind him is thin on paper, just a 40-yard punting average and Brandon Tennison's 199 yards and 2 touchdowns in relief work, but Jeff Traylor built this attack to run through his starter rather than lean on a deep resume. The reinforcements arrive from different directions, with Mark Wiepert transferring in from Oregon and Maguire Gasperson signing out of Argyle as a three-star high school prospect, giving McCown insurance rather than competition as UTSA tries to push past a 39.7% third-down rate that lagged the rest of the numbers.
Will Henderson III put up 866 yards and 6 touchdowns behind Robert Henry Jr. last season, and now he inherits the backfield outright with Henry gone. That is a lot to ask of a room otherwise short on proven touches, though A'Marion Peterson (177 yards) and Bryson Donnell (84 yards) both showed flashes and give Jeff Traylor a change of pace. UTSA ran for just 174 yards per game a year ago, so the staff brought in Brandon High Jr., who rushed for 98 yards and a score at California, to push Henderson rather than replace him.
The top of this room stays intact even with Devin McCuin's 65 catches and 726 yards gone, since David Amador II (45 catches, 443 yards) and AJ Wilson (523 yards on just 30 grabs) both return as proven weapons in a passing attack that ranked 46th nationally in yards per game. Jeff Traylor restocks the room with five three-star arrivals, headlined by James Madison II out of Missouri and Christian Dupree from Samuel Clemens, giving UTSA bodies to replace the volume McCuin took with him. DJ Allen Jr. and Jamel Hardy Jr. add proven hands underneath, so the ceiling here is less about finding a number one and more about whether the new pieces can turn explosive shots into the touchdowns McCuin used to provide.
UTSA is replacing every meaningful tight end from an offense that put up 35.5 points a game, with Patrick Overmyer, Houston Thomas and Dan Dishman combining to walk out the door with 71 catches between them. Nobody currently on hand has caught a pass in a Roadrunners uniform, so Jeff Traylor went to the portal for Miles Campbell, a 4-star Florida A&M transfer who caught 21 balls for 305 yards, and he projects as the early answer at the position. Isaiah Butler-Tanner and Ty Rupe give the room some returning bodies, but Campbell is the proven piece expected to keep this passing game's explosiveness intact.
Jeff Traylor's line produced 174 rushing yards per game (52nd) and gave up 21 sacks a year ago, and now seven of last season's linemen are out the door, headlined by the departures of Demetris Allen, Andrew Alvarado and Cory Godinet. Jaylen Garth is the lone senior among the 13 returning linemen, joining juniors Darrell Jones, Ben Rios, Deandre Marshall and Eucebio Ramos to anchor a group with no clear proven starters. Traylor leaned on high school recruiting to restock up front, signing Payton Williams and Josiah Evans along with tackle Ibrahim Kebe and Oklahoma State transfer Jarrett Henry, and how fast that mix jells will decide whether an offense that ranked 14th in scoring can hold that level in the American.
Tai Leonard's 3.5 TFL were a modest total for a line that produced 77 tackles for loss and an 18.5% havoc rate, ranked 18th nationally, a year ago, and now that production has to survive the exit of eight linemen, including Chidera Otutu, Kenny Ozowalu and Jon Jones. Jeff Traylor leaned on the portal to patch it, adding Elijah Baldwin from UTEP, whose 5.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks in 2025 make him the likely disruptor off the edge, alongside Collins Acheampong from Bowling Green. With Leonard and Jameian Buxton the only proven returning pieces, UTSA's pass rush, already just 76th in sacks, is riding on newcomers to keep the tackle-for-loss numbers from collapsing.
Shad Banks Jr.'s 93 tackles walk out the door, and nobody currently on the roster is close to that workload, which is the real story here. Brandon Tucker (35 tackles, 3 TFL) and Owen Pewee (28 tackles, 4 TFL) return as the closest thing to proven volume, while James Walley Jr. brings the disruption skill (5.5 TFL, 2 sacks on just 19 tackles) that fits a defense that already ranks 18th nationally in havoc rate. UTSA didn't add a portal name at linebacker, leaning instead on three-star freshmen Brandon Brown and Braeden Lott plus California transfer Eze Osondu, so 2026 is a bet that Tucker, Pewee and Walley can turn disruption into tackles without Banks anchoring the middle.
UTSA's back end loses its three leading tacklers in the group, Jimmy Wyrick (62), Tyan Milton (51) and Jermarius Lewis (25), gutting a safety room that had actually produced. Cam Upshaw Jr. and Elijah Newell, each with 13 tackles, inherit that starting safety work, while Jakevian Rodgers (23 tackles, 2 TFL) anchors a corner room that stays mostly intact with Ahamad Chapman, Lawrence Brown Jr. and Zach Morris back. The incoming class, led by three-star safeties Jarvse Dickerson and Xavier Walton and corner Derek Straughn, arrives without proven college production, so a defense that already allowed 223 passing yards per game leans on its returning corners to hold up while the new safeties get up to speed.
The specialist that matters here is Michael Petro, who hit 17 of 20 field goals with a long of 45 and put up 107 points, giving UTSA a proven closer instead of a guessing game at kicker even with Jesse Perez also in the mix. Caile Hogan returns after handling 54 punts at a 44.6-yard clip, so the punting operation carries over intact while the departures at kicker and long snapper (Jaffer Murphy, Isaac Hatfield) were never statistical losses to begin with. With Jon Stephens III back at snapper, this is a unit built on continuity rather than replacement, and Petro's leg should keep close AAC games from turning on special teams mistakes.
UTSA gutted its skill-position production, losing Robert Henry Jr. (1045 yards, 9 TD), Devin McCuin (65 catches, 726 yards, 8 TD) and both tight ends Patrick Overmyer and Houston Thomas, but the answer this time came almost entirely off the edge. Elijah Baldwin arrives from UTEP with 3.5 sacks and 5.5 TFL already on his résumé, joined by fellow transfer rushers Jeremiah Bailey, Collins Acheampong and Dylan Spencer, while Miles Campbell steps in at tight end after producing 21 catches and 305 yards at Florida A&M. Owen McCown runs the offense with almost none of last season's leading playmakers back, which makes Jeff Traylor's defensive retooling, not the skill spots, the real bet for 2026.
Robert Henry Jr. and his 1045 yards are gone, and the ground game now rests on Will Henderson III, who already put up 866 yards and 6 touchdowns as a complement piece last fall. Owen McCown returns to run the offense and AJ Wilson and David Amador II give him proven targets, but UTSA's identity under Jeff Traylor is built on the run, and Henderson has to become the workhorse rather than the second option for that formula to hold.
UTSA bettors know the drill under Jeff Traylor: at the Alamodome it is a near lock, covering 67% of the time and going 4-2 outright, but load up on the road and the results flip hard, a 33% cover rate and a 2-4 mark away from home. That gap held even as a road underdog, where the Roadrunners covered just once in three tries. The one time oddsmakers respected them against a ranked opponent, they cashed, so the market still trusts Traylor's group when the spotlight is biggest, just not when the bus leaves San Antonio.
15 more sections in the full UTSA Roadrunners preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.
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