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Cole Ballard inherits the job with almost nobody beside him, just 29% returning production, meaning a roster ranked 48th nationally in talent has to reload itself into a functional offense before the No. 55 power rating means anything.
Can Cole Ballard win with almost no proven help around him? Kansas returns just 15.2% of its offensive production, meaning the receivers, backs and line Ballard hands off to and throws to are largely unproven, and a first-year starter without established targets or protection typically absorbs that gap in turnovers and stalled drives rather than erasing it. Expect growing pains to show up in the passing game before they show up anywhere else.
Kansas projects to 6-6 with middling odds against a schedule ranked 58th in difficulty, but the real measuring sticks sit at the bottom of the win-probability sheet: at Utah (30%), home against BYU (31%) and Missouri (33%) look like coin-flip losses on paper, not sure things. Lance Leipold's crew gets a neutral-site test against Arizona State at 45% and manageable road trips to Kansas State (38%) and TCU (35%) to pad the ledger. If the Jayhawks want to beat their projection, it happens by stealing one of those three long-shot games, not by cleaning up against Middle Tennessee or Long Island University.
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Lance Leipold's sixth year at Kansas follows a 5-7 finish that snapped the program's recent momentum, with a 3-6 league mark showing how much ground the Jayhawks lost inside the Big 12. The power rating still lands at No. 55, a sign the roster talent did not fall off as sharply as the record suggests. That gap between a middling national ranking and a losing conference season is the real story entering 2026, and closing it starts with tightening up whatever went wrong in those six league losses.
Kansas rides an offense that was efficient but rarely explosive last fall, ranking 13th nationally in success rate yet just 113th in explosiveness, a formula that produced points without many chunk plays. Cole Ballard now runs that attack after a limited 2025 sample of 108 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, and the job is his to define rather than inherit. The bigger question is whether a defense that ranked 26th in havoc rate but let teams stay on schedule at a below-average clip can turn that disruption into stops often enough to keep games from tilting on Ballard's growing pains.
Jalon Daniels' departure leaves Kansas with almost no proven passing production, but Cole Ballard is the established starter after his limited 108-yard sample, and the offense around him doesn't need him to be flashy so much as efficient. Kansas ranked 13th nationally in offensive success rate a year ago while sitting 113th in explosiveness, a run-heavy, chain-moving attack that asks its quarterback to avoid mistakes rather than push the ball downfield. Rice transfer Chase Jenkins arrives with real starting tape, 1,025 yards and 9 touchdowns, as the insurance plan if Ballard's minimal résumé doesn't hold up against Big 12 competition.
Kansas didn't lose a backup, it lost its entire backfield: Daniel Hishaw Jr. (587 yards) and Leshon Williams (565 yards) both departed, and none of the returning backs managed more than Justin Thurman's 32 yards. Lance Leipold rebuilt from scratch through the portal, and Yasin Willis (553 yards at Syracuse) looks like the lead back, with Dylan Edwards arriving from in-state rival Kansas State and Jalen Dupree adding another 508-yard resume from Colorado State. This is a unit built entirely on other schools' tape rather than its own returning production, so the ground game that ranked 55th in rushing yards per game will look and feel like a completely different group in 2026.
Kansas lost Emmanuel Henderson Jr.'s 766 yards, and instead of one heir apparent Lance Leipold went to the portal twice, landing Nik McMillan (61 catches, 975 yards at Buffalo) and Nahzae Cox (40 catches, 473 yards at Middle Tennessee) to rebuild the room around Cam Pickett, who posted 45 catches and 449 yards last fall. Keaton Kubecka's 17 grabs give this group a third proven option, but the passing game was already 78th in the country in yards per game, so McMillan and Cox need to produce immediately rather than develop. With Griffin Baker, Donald Collier and Jackson Cook still unproven and a trio of unrated high school arrivals waiting behind them, the transfer pickups carry this position group in 2026.
Boden Groen's 36 catches and 5 touchdowns walk out the door, and Kansas replaces that production with Albany transfer Carter Moses, who caught 26 passes for 321 yards and 2 scores last season. Leyton Cure and Carson Bruhn return with modest numbers of their own, but Moses projects as the clear top target in an offense that already ranked 13th nationally in success rate even before this reshuffle. The rest of the room, Quinton Conley, Conlee Hovey, Mikey Pauley, and incoming three-stars Jack Utz, Kevin Sullivan and Jailen Butler, arrive without a stat line, meaning Moses carries this group's proven output almost by himself.
Kansas ran the ball for 170 yards per game and posted a 48.4% success rate up front last season, but eleven linemen off that group are gone, wiping out most of the experience behind those numbers. Calvin Clements, DeAndre Harper, Amir Herring, Anderson Kopp and James Livingston sit atop the returning depth chart, though nothing on file confirms they were last year's starters, so this reads as a rebuild rather than a proven unit running it back. Kaden Snyder headlines a tackle-heavy incoming group with Kaden Moody, Malachi Mills and Nick Morrow, plus interior addition Connor Stroh, and how fast those newcomers blend with the returning names will decide whether the rushing numbers hold or slip.
Kansas loses Tommy Dunn Jr. and Kenean Caldwell up front, but the havoc-making identity stays intact behind Blake Herold (43 tackles, 5 TFL) and Leroy Harris III, whose 4.5 sacks and 6.5 TFL were the closest thing this group had to a difference-maker. The bigger swing is depth and juice off the edge, where Michigan State transfer David Santiago and UAB's Eamon Smalls, who racked up 50 tackles a year ago, arrive to replace the production Dean Miller and Dunn take with them. A defense that already ranked 26th in havoc rate just needs Alex Bray and Dakyus Brinkley to hold up enough for the newcomers to get on the field and turn quarterback disruption into fewer chunk plays allowed.
Trey Lathan's 86 tackles anchor a group that otherwise got thin production last fall, so Kansas went shopping for reinforcements rather than counting on internal growth. Jibreel Al-Amin arrives from Marshall with 51 tackles and 5.5 TFL, and Quincy Davis brings 43 tackles from New Mexico State, both projecting as instant contributors alongside Lathan and Bam Crouch. The unit's 75 tackles for loss and 17.7% havoc rate last year show real disruption up front, and the transfer additions are built to keep that edge rather than replace it.
Kansas loses its top safety production wholesale, with Lyrik Rawls (72 tackles), Devin Dye and Jalen Dye all gone, and answers with a heavy transfer haul at the position: Corey Gordon (53 tackles, 3 TFL), Corey Gordon Jr. from Louisville and Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman from Iowa State all arrive to reshape the room. Corners stay largely intact behind Jalen Todd (44 tackles, 2 sacks) and Austin Alexander (46 tackles, 3.5 TFL), a group that helped Kansas finish 26th nationally in havoc rate a year ago. The corners give this defense a proven foundation, but the safety spot is essentially a new unit, and how fast Gordon and the transfers mesh will determine whether the pass defense holds its 57th-ranked mark or slips.
Kansas loses its entire proven kicking production, with Laith Marjan (14 of 17, 82 points) and long-time punter Finn Lappin (39 punts, 45.3 average) both gone, and turns the job over to transfer Martin Connington, who arrives having gone 12 of 16 with a 50-yard long. Dane Efird returns but carries just one point on the books, making Connington the clear answer at placekicker rather than a competition. Punting is a bigger question mark, with incumbent Ben Shipley unproven statistically and Australian import Matthew Gill brought in as insurance, while long snapper duties fall to returner Hollis Moeller or freshman addition Rino Monteforte.
Kansas didn't chase a portal quarterback to replace Jalon Daniels, handing the job to Cole Ballard, whose 108 yards last season is the thinnest resume on the roster, while Lance Leipold instead spent the offseason rebuilding around him. Yasin Willis and Jalen Dupree arrive to replace the departed Leshon Williams and Daniel Hishaw Jr. at running back, and Nik McMillan and Nahzae Cox step in for Emmanuel Henderson Jr.'s production at receiver. That's a lot of new names catching passes from an unproven passer, and with a class ranked 61st, this offense's identity in 2026 gets defined by how fast those transfers sync up with Ballard rather than by who they replaced.
Cole Ballard takes over an offense that managed just 108 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in his limited look last season, and every other piece around him is set up to make that number grow. Cam Pickett is back after a 45-catch, 449-yard season, and Rice transfer Chase Jenkins, who threw for 1,025 yards and 9 TDs, pushes Ballard for reps at a spot Kansas cannot afford to get wrong again.
Kansas covered barely a third of the time in 2025, and the home number was the worst offender at 2-4-1 despite a 4-3 straight-up mark there, meaning Lance Leipold's crew kept winning ugly at home without beating the number. Losing as a home favorite 2-4 against the spread points to a team that struggled to close out games it was supposed to control, and that habit is the first thing bettors will test in 2026. Until Kansas proves it can cover as the chalk again, the smart money treats Leipold's sixth season as a show-me year against the number, not just on the scoreboard.
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