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CFP odds · 2026

College Football Playoff odds 2026

Every contender's chances, from the rest of the season to the title game.

10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season, the title games and the 12-team playoff. Notre Dame wins the national title most often, 12% of the time. 1 team is in more than 80% of the time. On the bubble, near even: Georgia, Indiana, BYU.

Team
Playoff
Conf.
Title
1Notre Dame6-1
86%
—
12%
2Miami6-0
78%
51%
9%
3UCLA6-0
71%
32%
7%
4Ohio State6-1
68%
32%
8%
5Alabama5-2
66%
13%
9%
6Georgia6-1
56%
26%
6%
7Indiana6-1
54%
15%
4%
8BYU6-0
52%
24%
3%
9Texas Tech6-0
50%
23%
4%
10Wake Forest6-1
48%
24%
4%
11Utah6-0
45%
20%
4%
12LSU5-2
44%
7%
5%
13Tennessee6-1
42%
17%
3%
14Ole Miss5-1
42%
15%
4%
15James Madison7-0
40%
57%
1%
16Houston6-1
36%
12%
2%
17Kentucky6-1
22%
10%
1%
18Northwestern5-1
22%
5%
1%
19USC6-1
21%
4%
1%
20Texas4-2
21%
3%
2%
21Nebraska5-2
20%
2%
2%
22Arizona5-1
19%
8%
1%
23Boise State5-1
13%
39%
<1%
24New Mexico5-1
12%
32%
<1%
25North Dakota State6-1
12%
35%
<1%
26Missouri5-2
11%
2%
1%
27Oregon4-2
11%
3%
1%
28Iowa5-1
10%
2%
<1%
29SMU5-1
9%
7%
<1%
30Oklahoma State4-2
9%
6%
1%
31Florida5-2
8%
4%
<1%
32Oregon State5-2
8%
42%
<1%
33North Carolina4-2
8%
5%
<1%
34Wisconsin4-2
8%
3%
<1%
35Liberty5-1
8%
45%
<1%
36Louisville4-3
7%
4%
<1%
37Baylor4-2
6%
4%
<1%
38Auburn4-2
6%
1%
<1%
39Mississippi State4-2
5%
1%
<1%
40Pittsburgh5-2
4%
2%
<1%
41Duke4-2
4%
2%
<1%
42Clemson4-2
3%
2%
<1%
43Air Force5-1
3%
17%
<1%
44UTSA6-1
3%
20%
<1%
45Virginia Tech5-2
3%
1%
<1%
46TCU3-3
2%
1%
<1%
47Michigan4-2
2%
<1%
<1%
48Memphis5-2
2%
15%
<1%
49North Texas4-2
2%
22%
<1%
50Louisiana5-2
1%
10%
<1%
51Kansas State4-2
1%
<1%
<1%
52Army4-2
1%
17%
<1%
53UCF3-3
1%
1%
<1%
54South Carolina3-3
1%
<1%
<1%
55Louisiana Tech4-2
1%
13%
<1%
56Georgia State4-2
1%
6%
<1%
57Virginia4-3
1%
1%
<1%
58Cincinnati4-2
1%
<1%
<1%
59Oklahoma3-3
1%
<1%
<1%
60Western Michigan5-2
1%
31%
<1%
61Texas A&M4-3
1%
<1%
<1%
62Ohio5-2
1%
30%
<1%
63South Florida5-2
1%
3%
<1%
64Iowa State3-3
1%
<1%
<1%
65Toledo5-2
1%
15%
<1%
66Minnesota4-2
1%
<1%
<1%

Teams with at least a 1-in-200 chance. The line under the twelfth row is where the field would close if the odds were the field. Conf. is winning the conference title game.

How this works

Each FBS team is rated by scoring margin against the schedule it played this season (margins capped at 28, home field 2.5 points, FCS opponents fixed well below average), starting from its conference group's level until the games say otherwise. The rest of the season is played 10,000 times with each rating redrawn within its uncertainty; the top two on conference record meet in each title game; then each simulated season is ranked by a resume score (rating, record, strength of schedule and a conference title) standing in for the committee, and the 2026 rules pick and seed the twelve. The committee is people, so read the ranking step as an estimate. The Sun Belt's divisions are treated as one table.

For the field as it stands today, seeded on the rankings, see the College Football Playoff picture.

Questions

Who is most likely to win the national championship?

Notre Dame at 12%, then Alabama at 9% and Miami at 9%.

Which teams are most likely to make the College Football Playoff?

In order: Notre Dame (86%), Miami (78%), UCLA (71%), Ohio State (68%), Alabama (66%), Georgia (56%), Indiana (54%), BYU (52%), Texas Tech (50%), Wake Forest (48%), Utah (45%), LSU (44%).

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Each FBS team is rated by scoring margin against the schedule it played this season (margins capped at 28, home field 2.5 points, FCS opponents fixed well below average), starting from its conference group's level until the games say otherwise. The rest of the season is played 10,000 times with each rating redrawn within its uncertainty; the top two on conference record meet in each title game; then each simulated season is ranked by a resume score (rating, record, strength of schedule and a conference title) standing in for the committee, and the 2026 rules pick and seed the twelve. The committee is people, so read the ranking step as an estimate. The Sun Belt's divisions are treated as one table.

How does the 12-team playoff work in 2026?

The SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions are in, Notre Dame is in if ranked in the top 12, and so is the highest-ranked Group of Six champion. The highest-ranked teams left fill the twelve. Seeding is straight by ranking; the top four get first-round byes.