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Kirby Moore inherits a defense that ranked 28th nationally in scoring a year ago, but with just 9% production returning across the roster, that unit and Pinnick's offense are effectively starting from scratch despite a talent base ranked 95th nationally.
With 10.2% of offensive production back, Caden Pinnick will have almost no proven pieces around him, not a rebuilt cast, essentially a brand new offense wearing crimson. The likelier outcome is a rough transition stretch as Kirby Moore sorts out who catches and blocks for his new quarterback, since a passer who never played above UC Davis cannot be expected to fix a unit this bare by himself. Washington State's ceiling in year one is capped by how fast the pieces around Pinnick develop, not by Pinnick himself.
Nothing about Kirby Moore's first slate is friendly at the start or the finish: a trip to Washington (15% win) opens the year before Kansas State on the road (23%) and a home date with Arizona (29%) form the stretch that will actually decide whether this projects as a 6-6 bowl team or something worse. The rest of the board is winnable but hardly comfortable, with Boise State at home (36%) and road trips to San Diego State (31%) and Texas State (44%) all sitting near a coin flip. Home dates against Colorado State (75%) and the two unrated tune-ups are the closest thing to relief on a schedule ranked 69th in difficulty, but Moore's debut season will be defined by how his team fares in those three lowest-probability tests, not by the games it should win.
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A 7-6 finish with a -10 turnover margin and a 1-4 mark in one-score games is not a snapshot of a bad roster, it is a snapshot of bad breaks, and both are due to normalize under Kirby Moore. The offense actually left points on the field last year, needing 15.1 yards per point against a 14.1 league median, so even modest efficiency gains under Caden Pinnick push this closer to 6-6 as a floor rather than a ceiling. Expect the turnover and close-game luck to turn, and expect Washington State to look like a clearly better team than last year's record even if the win total does not jump.
Kirby Moore takes over a program that was quietly stronger than its 7-6 mark, a bowl-winning finish over Utah State built on a defense that made opponents earn their points at 14.9 yards allowed per scoring drive. The warning signs sit underneath that record rather than on top of it: a minus-10 turnover margin and a 1-4 mark in one-score games are the kind of breaks that rarely repeat twice, which is why this reads as a team due for positive regression rather than decline. With only 9% of last year's production back, Moore's staff is effectively rebuilding the two-deep from scratch in year one, but the underlying numbers say the ceiling here is higher than 2025 showed.
Washington State's defense finished 15th in yards allowed and 13th against the pass, but a minus-10 turnover margin and a stagnant offense (105th in scoring, 133rd in explosiveness) turned a stout unit into a 7-6 season. The fix arrives via UC Davis transfer Caden Pinnick, projected as the 2026 starter after throwing 32 touchdowns against just 10 picks last year, a ratio the Cougars badly need if they want to stop bleeding possessions. If Pinnick's efficiency travels and cuts into that turnover deficit, the defense already has the pieces to turn close losses into wins under new coach Kirby Moore.
Washington State's passing offense returns nothing of substance, so the whole room now belongs to Caden Pinnick, the UC Davis transfer who threw for 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. That production dwarfs anything on the current roster, where Julian Dugger has thrown for all of 39 yards and Owen Eshelman, Jake Tiryakioglu and incoming Gavin Gray carry no game stats at all. New coach Kirby Moore inherits an offense that ranked 89th in passing yards per game and 133rd in explosiveness, and Pinnick's track record of pushing the ball downfield is the clearest lever to fix that.
Washington State's leading returning rusher, Maxwell Woods, managed just 225 yards last season, and the two backs who topped him, Kirby Vorhees (576 yards, 5 TD) and Angel Johnson (252 yards, 1 TD), are both gone. Kirby Moore is rebuilding the room almost entirely through a four-man incoming class of Marquez Wimberly, CJ Toney, Tremayne Hill and Beau Phillips, none of whom have logged a college carry, alongside unproven holdover Carl Watson III. That's a lot of unproven bodies replacing nearly all the production behind an offense that already ranked 101st in rushing yards per game, and there's no obvious reason 2026 should look different on the ground until one of the newcomers forces the issue.
Washington State gutted its receiving room this offseason, losing Joshua Meredith (57 catches, 725 yards) and Tony Freeman (54 catches, 588 yards) and replacing them almost entirely through the portal. Jordan Dees arrives from West Georgia with 36 catches for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns, the closest thing to a proven volume target on the roster, while Daniel Blood (Missouri) and Tank Hawkins (Florida) bring only modest production and Darrius Clemons joins from Oregon State without a stat line. With returners Branden Ganashamoorthy, Tristian Drummond, Kaden Harken and Noah Westbrook combining for almost nothing on paper, Dees is the closest thing this group has to a proven number one, and an offense that ranked 133rd in explosiveness in 2025 needs him to create the big plays this passing attack has been missing.
Trey Leckner's 23 catches and 3 scores are the only proven production at this position, and new coach Kirby Moore adds bodies rather than a difference-maker behind him. Jack Pedersen arrives from UCLA with 11 grabs of game experience, while Nathaniel Salmon, Cash Landau and Peyton Read give the room size and unknowns instead of depth. With an offense that ranked 133rd in explosiveness and struggled to convert on third down, Leckner has to be more than a possession safety valve for the passing game to find any big-play juice in 2026.
Kirby Moore inherits a line that helped produce only 5.24 yards per play (104th) and an explosiveness mark of 1.12 (133rd) last season, evidence that the ground game and chunk plays simply were not there. The bulk of the room is back, with juniors Gauge Machado and Jaylin Caldwell among the more experienced hands, giving Moore's staff continuity even as four linemen, including Christian Hilborn and Brock Dieu, are gone. The fixes up front come from outside additions rather than the transfer portal alone: Utah's Kalolo Ta'aga and Washington's Maximus McCree arrive as transfer tackles, while Cooper Daines joins as a true freshman signee out of Mead to add interior depth.
Washington State just gutted its front four of every reliable producer, with Buddha Peleti, Isaac Terrell, Bryson Lamb, Malaki Ta'ase and Darrion Dalton all gone, so the returning names, Kaden Beatty, Michael Hughes and Ben Beatty, carry almost no production between them. Kirby Moore's staff answered by hauling in four transfer edges, led by Paul Hutson III from Marshall (37 tackles, 6 TFL) and Linus Zunk from Vanderbilt (3.5 TFL), plus Eduwa Okundaye from Arizona and DJ Warner from SMU, essentially rebuilding the pass rush from outside the program. That group has to replace a defense that already ranked just 31st nationally in sacks, so the newcomers aren't upgrading a strength, they're the whole plan for finding one.
This group loses nearly its entire tackle production from a defense that finished 15th in yards allowed per game, with Caleb Francl (82 tackles), Parker McKenna (83 tackles) and Anthony Palano (65 tackles) all gone. What remains is Jack Ellison and Gage Jones, whose 11 and 10 tackles look like part-time snap counts by comparison, alongside Gavin Fugate, Isaiah Hung and Erimus Wright, none of whom have logged a stat yet. Kent State transfer Nylan Brown, who piled up 37 tackles and 2.5 TFL last season, is the clear answer at the position and needs to play like a starter immediately if Kirby Moore's defense hopes to hold onto that 13th-ranked pass defense number.
Washington State's secondary was the strength of a defense that ranked 13th in passing yards allowed per game, but the two names most responsible for that, Tucker Large and Matthew Durrance, are both gone, along with Colby Humphrey and Kenny Worthy III at corner. What comes back carries almost no track record: Kyle Peterson's 9 tackles is the top mark among returners, and David Kuku has no prior stats at all. Kirby Moore leaned hard on the portal to cover the gap, and Jaylen Thomas arrives from San José State with 59 tackles as the clear plug-in starter at corner, flanked by Khamari Terrell and Jalil Tucker, while Jeremiah Bernard and Jack Bal add bodies at safety. This group is being rebuilt from outside in, and whether the pass defense holds near that top-15 range now rests on transfers who never played a snap in Pullman.
Jack Stevens is the steady piece here, back after going 16 of 19 with a long of 49 and 81 points, giving Kirby Moore's first Washington State team a kicking game that does not need fixing. Punting does, since Troy Petz and Adlai Lounsbury are both gone, and the answer arrives from New Mexico State in Max Dean, who averaged 42.3 yards on 55 punts and steps straight into the job rather than competing for scraps. Long snapper is the one true unknown, with Sean Bures taking over after both Colton Peoples and Colson Brunner departed without a statistical track record to judge him against.
Kirby Moore's first Washington State roster barely resembles last year's 7-6 group, with 41 players out the door against just 28 arrivals. Caden Pinnick, who threw for 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns at UC Davis, projects as the new quarterback, but he loses the receivers who caught his passes there and inherits a Cougars room that shipped out Joshua Meredith and Tony Freeman, replacing them with West Georgia's Jordan Dees. The defense gets rebuilt almost entirely through the portal too, with Jaylen Thomas, Khamari Terrell and Jalil Tucker all arriving at cornerback to replace departed linebackers Parker McKenna and Caleb Francl, meaning nearly every unit on the field will be learning together at once.
Kirby Moore's first team lives and dies with Caden Pinnick, the UC Davis transfer who threw for 3206 yards and 32 touchdowns and is projected to run the offense after Zevi Eckhaus's departure left almost nothing behind at the position. With 28 newcomers in and 41 players out, Pinnick has to be the connective tissue for skill pieces like Trey Leckner and Maxwell Woods, and his ability to translate that FCS production against tougher competition is what separates a bowl push from another rebuild year.
Whatever Washington State was doing last season, it kept beating the number even when it lost the game outright, going 3-0 against the spread against ranked teams despite dropping all three straight up and covering five of six the week after a loss. That's a program that hangs around, especially at home as a favorite (3-1 cover) or on the road catching points (4-1), and Kirby Moore inherits a group that plays close no matter the final score. The talent level hasn't changed the market's respect for this team, and until Moore proves otherwise in his first year, backing the Cougars against the number is the safer bet than picking them to win outright.
15 more sections in the full Washington State Cougars preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.
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