Missouri Tigers 2026 Season Preview

Drinkwitz's Hidden Ceiling

Missouri's 8-5 mark against a 4-4 conference record actually flattered nothing, it undersold what Eliah Drinkwitz's team put on tape. In league play, Missouri's yardage margin against SEC-caliber opponents implied a win rate far above the 50 percent it actually posted, and a turnover margin of -5 and a 1-3 record in one-score games both point to bad luck rather than bad football. None of that repeats at the same rate, so expect the No. 21 power rating to translate into a record that finally matches the tape in 2026.

Simmons Walks Into a Puzzle

Missouri's actual problem in 2025 wasn't scoring, it was style: a run-heavy attack (228 yards per game, 8th nationally) propping up a passing game that finished 104th, with 28 sacks allowed and a turnover margin of minus-5 that ranked 103rd. Austin Simmons arrives from Ole Miss projected to run this offense, and his own 2025 line, 744 yards, 4 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, does nothing to suggest the turnover bleeding stops on its own. The defense held up its end, ranking 8th in yards allowed per game and 8th in havoc rate, so if Simmons cleans up the giveaways this offense finally matches its ground production instead of undercutting it.

Missouri blew up its quarterback room this offseason, and Austin Simmons is the reason why. The Ole Miss transfer takes the first-team reps into camp as the front-runner, but his 5 interceptions on just 744 yards last season are a real red flag, and the job is not locked up with Nick Evers and Gavin Sidwar also in the mix. Beau Pribula's 1,946 yards and 11 touchdowns are gone, and with passing offense already a weak link at 188 yards per game, Simmons has to clean up the turnovers or this run-heavy attack stalls out again on third down.

Ahmad Hardy's 1649 yards and 16 touchdowns make this the rare position group where the incumbent overshadows the turnover around him, and Jamal Roberts' 753 yards give Missouri a proven complement rather than a rebuild job. The departures of Tavorus Jones and Marquise Davis barely dent that depth chart given how little of the 228 rushing yards per game those two accounted for. Montana transfer Malae Fonoti arrives with 184 yards and 4 touchdowns on his own résumé, and with a run game that already ranks 8th nationally in rushing yards per game, he slots in as insurance behind Hardy rather than a fix for a broken unit.

Kevin Coleman Jr.'s 66 catches and 732 yards walk out the door along with 7 other departed receivers, leaving Donovan Olugbode (30 catches, 401 yards) as the only proven returning target in a passing game that was already 104th in passing yards per game. Missouri went shopping to fix that gap, landing Cayden Lee, who caught 44 passes for 635 yards and 3 touchdowns at Ole Miss, and Caleb Goodie, who had 29 grabs for 484 yards at Cincinnati, both of whom project as immediate starters over an otherwise unproven group of Jayden Bolton, Noah Flaskamp and Derrick McBride II. With a run game that ranked 8th in rushing yards per game already established, Lee and Goodie do not need to be volume producers right away, just efficient enough to keep Missouri's 44.9% third-down offense on schedule.

Brett Norfleet is the whole story here, back after a 31-catch, 5-touchdown season in an offense that leans run-heavy but still needs a reliable safety valve given how far Missouri's passing game (104th) trailed its ground production (8th nationally). Jude James returns as a real complement after his 2 touchdowns on limited targets, and with Vince Brown II and Dakotah Terrell gone, the room's production is almost entirely Norfleet's to carry again rather than split. Isaac Jensen arrives from Millard South as a developmental piece, not a 2026 factor, so Norfleet's usage likely climbs if Drinkwitz needs a bigger third-down and red zone target to lift a passing attack that has lagged the rest of the offense.

A line that shoved defenders around for 228 rushing yards a game, 8th nationally, loses a big chunk of its bodies, with 9 offensive linemen gone against 11 back, and no depth chart tells us who actually manned the trenches. Cayden Green anchors the returning group as a senior alongside Dominick Giudice, but the pass protection numbers, 28 sacks allowed, already ranked 95th, so this is a rebuild up front even before the losses are counted. Missouri answers with a loaded influx rather than patchwork, headlined by four-star tackle DJ Jones out of Venice plus Luke Work, Braylon Ellison, Brysen Wessell and Brandon Anderson, and how fast that group blends with Green's group decides whether the ground game stays elite or the sack numbers get worse.

Darris Smith's 5 sacks and 6 TFL are the anchor for a line that finished 8th in yards allowed per play and produced a 19.8% havoc rate a year ago, but the production behind him took a hit. Chris McClellan, Zion Young, Damon Wilson II and Sterling Webb combined for the bulk of Missouri's pressure and are all gone, leaving Jalen Marshall, Marquis Gracial and Langden Kitchen to carry over modest tackle numbers into bigger roles. Baylor transfer Kamauryn Morgan and Northern Illinois's Mark Hensley, who piled up 31 tackles and 5 TFL last season, arrive to restock the edge and interior, with four-star Owasso signee Tajh Overton adding upside Drinkwitz needs if Missouri wants to keep forcing negative plays at the rate it did in 2025.

Josiah Trotter's 84 tackles and 13 TFL walk out the door along with Khalil Jacobs, gutting the productivity that made Missouri's front seven a genuine strength (8th in yards allowed per game, 8th in havoc rate). Nicholas Rodriguez, coming off 61 tackles and 4 TFL, is the lone proven piece left standing, and Auburn transfer Robert Woodyard Jr. arrives to plug the void with a 67-tackle, 7-TFL season already on his resume. The rest of the room, Jeremiah Beasley, Dante McClellan and true freshmen JJ Bush and Bobby Washington Jr., is largely unproven, which makes Woodyard's addition less a luxury than the difference between this defense holding its ground or sliding back.

Missouri's secondary was rebuilt this offseason after Daylan Carnell (41 tackles, 6.5 TFL), Jalen Catalon (39 tackles) and Drey Norwood (24 tackles) all departed from a group that ranked 8th nationally in yards allowed per play. Santana Banner (59 tackles) is the lone proven piece left on the back end, and the staff went to the portal to replace the lost production, landing Elijah Dotson from Michigan (11 tackles) and Kensley Louidor-Faustin from Auburn (20 tackles, 3 TFL) alongside four-star corner Jaxson Gates. That much new blood at both safety and corner means Missouri is betting its portal hauls can replicate what Carnell and Catalon did rather than simply protecting a returning unit.

Missouri overhauls its kicking operation after Robert Meyer's 66 points and 10 of 14 clip walk out the door, leaving Blake Craig (2 of 2, 55-yard long) and Oliver Robbins (3 of 5) to settle a job neither has held full-time. The bigger swing comes at punter, where Tennessee State transfer Mark Shenouda arrives with a 42.9-yard average on 62 attempts, an upgrade in track record over departed Connor Weselman that should immediately hand him the job over incumbent John Butcher. Florida State transfer Brunno Reus adds camp competition at kicker, but with zero career field goal attempts, the placekicking answer for 2026 more likely comes from Craig's small-sample efficiency than from an unproven newcomer.

Rebuilding Behind Simmons

Missouri swapped out Beau Pribula's 1946 passing yards for Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss transfer projected to take over after throwing for just 744 yards and five picks last season, a downgrade in production the Tigers are betting improves with a full offseason as the guy. He brings his own weapons too, with fellow Ole Miss transfer Cayden Lee (44 catches, 635 yards) and Cincinnati's Caleb Goodie (29 catches, 484 yards) replacing the departed trio of Kevin Coleman Jr., Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning. Defensively, Robert Woodyard Jr. and Kensley Louidor-Faustin arrive from Auburn to soften the loss of Josiah Trotter and Chris McClellan, but this roster is being rebuilt through the portal rather than carried forward.

Austin Simmons

Missouri's season rides on what Austin Simmons becomes in his first year running the offense after arriving from Ole Miss, where he threw for 744 yards with 5 interceptions in limited action behind a bigger name. He inherits a real luxury in Ahmad Hardy, who ran for 1649 yards and 16 touchdowns, plus a new target in Cayden Lee, so the ceiling is high if Simmons simply avoids the turnovers that plagued departed starter Beau Pribula. If he plays clean, the ground game and Lee cover for him; if he does not, Missouri's floor drops fast.

The Ranked-Opponent Problem

Missouri's number to fear in 2026 is not the 8-5 record, it is the 0-5-1 mark against the spread against ranked teams, a stretch where the Tigers went 1-5 straight up and consistently failed to cover against the SEC's best. Everything else about Eliah Drinkwitz's book is respectable, home favorites covered at a 67% clip and Missouri bounced back after losses at 75%, which points to a program that beats the teams it should and travels fine as a favorite. The gap between that steady baseline performance and the total collapse against ranked competition is the actual story for 2026, not whether Drinkwitz's group can build on last year's win total.