California Golden Bears 2026 Season Preview

A Record Built to Regress

Tosh Lupoi inherits a 7-6 team that flattered itself in one-score games, going 4-1 in contests decided by a touchdown or less, exactly the kind of margin that rarely repeats. Cal also played into bad luck on the other side of the ball, running a turnover margin of -3 over 13 games despite fielding a defense that allowed just 13.3 yards per point, well ahead of the league median, so some positive regression there is coming too. Lupoi takes over a group whose true level was closer to the middle of the pack than the record showed, and whether Cal matches 7-6 again in 2026 depends more on turnovers bouncing back than on anything he changes schematically.

Sagapolutele Carries the Load

Cal's offense is really one number wide: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 3,446 yards and 19th-ranked-nationally passing production, while the run game sat 133rd and the line let up 31 sacks. That imbalance is the whole story for 2026, since the ground game and protection have to close the gap around him rather than lean on him further. Nothing on defense offsets it either, with a run-stuff rate ranked 134th, so Sagapolutele's ability to operate behind a shaky pocket determines whether Cal's passing strength translates into a better record than the 7-6 mark that produced it.

Cal's passing attack ranked 19th nationally in yards per game last season even as the ground game cratered at 133rd in rushing, and that split defines what Tosh Lupoi inherits as he takes over the program: a team built to sling it behind Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, whose 3,446 yards and 18 touchdowns arrive fully intact. The 9 interceptions and 111th-ranked pass protection are the real drag, and new addition Jackson Brousseau, who threw 9 touchdowns against just 3 picks at Colorado State, gives Lupoi a name to lean on if Sagapolutele's turnover rate does not tighten up. With 31 sacks allowed pairing against a 40.6% success rate on offense, this stays Sagapolutele's job to keep clean, not one for Nainoa Lopes or the other backups to contest in 2026.

Cal's backfield is a full transplant job: Kendrick Raphael (952 yards, 13 TD) is gone along with the rest of last year's carries, and every returning back on the roster managed single digits or barely double-digit yardage. Tosh Lupoi rebuilt the room entirely through the portal, headlined by Adam Mohammed (523 yards, 5 TD at Washington) and Ashten Emory (569 yards, 4 TD at UTEP), with Carter Vargas adding another proven ball-carrier from UC Davis. That kind of production import matters given a rushing attack that finished 133rd in yards per game a year ago, and Mohammed's blend of pedigree and prior workload makes him the early bet to lead the new-look room.

Cal replaces its top two producers, Jacob De Jesus (107 catches, 1022 yards) and Trond Grizzell (55 catches, 788 yards), with a pair of transfers who arrive with nearly matching resumes: Chase Hendricks from Ohio (71 catches, 1037 yards, 7 TD) and Ian Strong from Rutgers (52 catches, 762 yards, 5 TD). That's a near one-for-one talent swap rather than a rebuild, and it should keep Cal's 19th-ranked passing attack afloat even as Jordan King (22 catches, 267 yards) and Quaron Adams (20 catches, 273 yards) return only as complementary pieces. The bigger question for 2026 is whether new blockers or better play design can lift a rushing attack stuck at 133rd, since the receiving corps looks built to carry the passing game regardless.

Mason Mini's 35 catches for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns already gave Cal a legitimate receiving tight end, and Tosh Lupoi added to that group rather than patching it, pulling Dorian Thomas over from New Mexico off a 56-catch, 560-yard season and adding Purdue's Rico Walker for depth. That kind of collegiate production at the position is new for Cal, whose passing attack was already a strength at 275 yards per game (19th nationally) even while the run game lagged at 133rd. With Mini and Thomas both capable of soaking up targets, the tight end room looks built to keep that passing identity rolling in 2026 rather than lean on the ineffective ground attack.

The 2025 line allowed 31 sacks and shoved for just 83 rushing yards per game, 133rd nationally, numbers that forced Cal to live off a 275-yard passing attack instead of controlling the line of scrimmage. Ten linemen are out the door, more than the ten names left on the roster, so Tosh Lupoi is piecing together a new front with seniors Bastian Swinney, Lamar Robinson and Sioape Vatikani as the veteran presence while four-star tackle Daniel McMorris and interior signee Kamo'i Huihui-White join a wave of new blood. With that much turnover and no clear returning starter to build around, expect the rushing and pass-protection numbers to stay a problem before they get better.

Cal's front loses its two most productive tacklers in Aidan Keanaaina and T.J. Bollers, and replaces them almost entirely through the portal. Joshua Pierce arrives from North Texas with 2 sacks and 2 TFL, Solomon Williams brings 3 TFL from Texas A&M, and 4-star Jericho Johnson jumps over from Oregon after 5 tackles, giving new coach Tosh Lupoi three plug-and-play pieces up front. That matters because this group finished 105th in sacks and 134th in run-stuff rate a year ago, so the newcomers aren't complementing Stanley Saole-McKenzie and Derek Wilkins, they're the fix for a line that couldn't get off blocks.

Cal loses its two leading tacklers in Cade Uluave (97 tackles, 12 TFL) and Luke Ferrelli (91 tackles, 5 TFL), gutting a linebacker corps that already struggled to disrupt plays behind the line at 134th in run-stuff rate. Aaron Hampton (41 tackles) is the lone proven returning piece, and new coach Tosh Lupoi is leaning on a five-man transfer haul, including Kamar Mothudi and Tristan Jernigan, to restock depth rather than assuming any instant fix. With that much production gone and the newcomers largely unproven at this level, Cal's run defense figures to take a step back before it takes a step forward.

Cal's back end loses its top three tacklers from a year ago in Dru Polidore Jr., Cam Sidney and Hezekiah Masses, so Tosh Lupoi is leaning on the transfer market to reload rather than promote from within. Oregon safety Kingston Lopa arrives as the headline addition, joined by corners Daniel Harris (Georgia) and Ricky Fletcher (Ole Miss), while Aiden Manutai's 44 tackles and 2 TFL make him the clear returning anchor. With a run-stuff rate ranked 134th a year ago, the bigger question for this group is whether Lopa and the new corners can tighten a front seven that let opponents stay on schedule far too often, not just cover better on the back end.

Cal loses its entire kicking operation from a year ago, including Chase Meyer's 10 of 13 mark and 69 points, and answers by importing the job wholesale. Angus Davies arrives from Tulsa with real burden of proof already established at 43.3 yards a punt over 46 attempts, while Auburn transfer Towns McGough steps into the placekicking role despite a bare 0 of 1 college resume. With Erik Peters still unproven and no returning stats behind either newcomer, this unit's floor and ceiling both run through how fast McGough settles in under Tosh Lupoi's first staff.

Rebuilding Around Sagapolutele

Tosh Lupoi's first roster overhaul is almost a total skill-position transplant, and the one constant is the point: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns after throwing for 3,446 yards, so Cal isn't searching for a quarterback while it replaces nearly everything around him. Kendrick Raphael and Jacob De Jesus are gone after combining for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, so the plan leans on transfers Chase Hendricks (71 catches at Ohio) and Ian Strong (52 catches at Rutgers) to replace that production, with Adam Mohammed, Ashten Emory and Carter Vargas splitting a backfield that lost its lead back entirely. The bigger question is defensive, where Cade Uluave, Luke Ferrelli and Aidan Keanaaina all leave real tackle production behind with a middling recruiting class offering little immediate reinforcement.

Chase Hendricks

Cal's passing game already has its centerpiece back in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw for 3446 yards and 18 touchdowns, but the ceiling on that offense rides with Chase Hendricks, the Ohio transfer who caught 71 passes for 1037 yards and 7 scores. None of Cal's returning receivers, not Quaron Adams nor Jordan King, produced anywhere close to that target share, so Hendricks isn't a complementary piece, he's the answer to whether Sagapolutele's numbers translate into more wins in year one under Tosh Lupoi.

Favored and Failing

Cal went 0-2 against the spread as a home favorite last year, the clearest sign this program routinely underdelivered on nights it was supposed to handle business, and the 33% home cover rate backs it up. The bright spot was the opposite kind of game, going 2-2 as a road underdog and 2-1 against the spread versus ranked teams, suggesting bettors trust this roster more when expectations are lowered than when Cal is asked to close one out at home. Tosh Lupoi takes over a team that covered just 38% of the time overall, and the home-favorite number is the specific habit a new staff needs to break in 2026.