Bowl projections 2026
Every bowl game, projected.
36 bowls and the 12-team playoff, projected from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season. At the top: Tennessee v USC in the Citrus Bowl; Ole Miss v Nebraska in the ReliaQuest Bowl; Houston v Kentucky in the Texas Bowl. 95 teams reach six wins in at least half the simulations, for 72 bowl spots and 12 in the playoff.
The playoff twelve
1 Notre Dame, 2 Miami, 3 UCLA, 4 Ohio State, 5 Alabama, 6 Georgia, 7 Texas Tech, 8 BYU, 9 Indiana, 10 Utah, 11 Wake Forest, 12 LSU. Matchups and every game's chance: projected CFP bracket.
Every bowl, by date
Arkansas State3-4CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Buffalo4-3CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Fresno State4-3Mountain West or Pac-12
Toledo5-2MAC or Sun Belt
Georgia Southern3-4CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Florida International3-4CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Florida Atlantic4-2American, CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Miami (OH)4-3American, CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Kansas State4-2Big 12
James Madison7-1American, Mountain West or Sun Belt
South Alabama4-3CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Delaware3-4CUSA, MAC or Sun Belt pool
Cincinnati4-2American, ACC or Big 12
South Florida5-2American or CUSA
Tie-ins are the conferences' 2026 bowl agreements as published, most carried over from the last cycle; bowls marked pool pick from a group of conferences or have a slot that is not settled. "Fills the spot" means no team the tie-in allows was left, and the bowl takes the best team available, as bowls do. One projection from the odds, not a forecast of each bowl's choice.
On the bowl bubble
The chance to reach six regular-season wins (one FCS win counts). Who already has six: bowl eligibility tracker.
Questions
What are the projected bowl games?
36 bowls and the 12-team playoff, projected from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season. At the top: Tennessee v USC in the Citrus Bowl; Ole Miss v Nebraska in the ReliaQuest Bowl; Houston v Kentucky in the Texas Bowl. 95 teams reach six wins in at least half the simulations, for 72 bowl spots and 12 in the playoff.
Who is projected for the Citrus Bowl?
Tennessee and USC: the SEC and Big Ten teams projected highest outside the playoff.
Which teams are on the bowl bubble?
Closest to even on six wins: Oklahoma (50%), Buffalo (52%), East Carolina (52%), Delaware (53%), Texas State (53%), Arkansas State (54%).
How many wins does a team need to be bowl eligible?
Six, with at most one win over an FCS team counting. If there are not enough six-win teams for every bowl, 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rate fill the rest.
How are these bowl projections made?
The playoff field is the projected bracket. Every other team that reaches six wins in at least half the simulations goes into a pool, ranked by its average end-of-season ranking in the simulations. The bowls then pick in order, richest first, each slot taking the best team left that its conference tie-ins allow, never two teams from one conference; a slot its tie-ins cannot fill takes the best team left from anywhere.