Texas Longhorns 2026 Season Preview

Sarkisian's Margins Were Thin

Texas won 10 games last season on the back of a plus-14 turnover margin and a 3-1 mark in one-score games, the kind of variance that rarely repeats. The offense also needed just 12.8 yards per point against a league median of 14.1, meaning Steve Sarkisian's group finished drives at a rate unlikely to hold up as the baseline for 2026. None of that erases a No. 2 power rating or 63% returning production on offense, but the honest read is that last year's record flattered this roster more than the tape did, and regression is the higher-probability outcome even with the talent largely intact.

Manning Inherits an Odd Offense

Texas produced explosive plays at a rate that ranked 14th nationally in 2025, yet the same offense finished 96th in success rate and 88th in points per scoring opportunity, a unit that hit home runs but stalled on the routine down. That is the offense Arch Manning now runs full-time after throwing for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and the fix is not more big plays but simply finishing drives once Texas gets there. The defense, meanwhile, is the sturdier bet, with 39 sacks and a +14 turnover margin bailing out a passing defense that ranked just 98th against the pass.

Arch Manning threw for 3163 yards and 26 touchdowns last season and heads into 2026 as the unquestioned starter, which means the story here is less about the job and more about what surrounds him. Texas ranked just 96th in offensive success rate and 88th in points per scoring opportunity despite Manning's explosive-play numbers ranking 14th nationally, a gap that points to inconsistency setting up big plays rather than sustaining drives. The program added Dia Bell out of American Heritage as a five-star developmental piece and brought in MJ Morris via the transfer portal from Coastal Carolina for depth, but neither changes the fact that this offense goes as far as Manning can drag it against the third-down and success-rate numbers that dogged it in 2025.

Texas blew up its backfield rather than run it back, and the headliner is Raleek Brown, who arrives from Arizona State off a 1,141-yard season to replace nearly all of the departed production of Quintrevion Wisner, Christian Clark and Jerrick Gibson combined. That trio's exits leave James Simon (122 yards) as the only returner with real rushing volume, so Brown is walking into a lead job rather than a competition. With a 90th-ranked rushing attack trying to complement an explosive passing game (14th nationally in explosiveness), the bet here is that Brown's one-cut burst, paired with four-star arrivals Derrek Cooper and Hollywood Smothers waiting in the wings, finally gives Sarkisian's offense the ground balance it lacked in 2025.

Texas didn't just replace departed production, it upgraded at the top by adding Cam Coleman, a five-star Auburn transfer who caught 57 balls for 725 yards last season and slots in as an outside complement to Ryan Wingo (834 yards, 7 TD). Parker Livingstone and DeAndre Moore Jr. are gone, but Sterling Berkhalter arrives from Wake Forest with 30 catches and 416 yards of proven production to soften that loss, while Emmett Mosley V returns as a reliable underneath option. The talent here now outstrips an offense that ranked just 96th in success rate a year ago, and the ceiling shifts squarely onto whoever throws Wingo and Coleman the ball.

Jack Endries leaving behind his 33 catches and 3 scores leaves a real hole, and Texas didn't bank on Nick Townsend or Emaree Winston to fill it. Instead the answer arrived from Michigan State in Michael Masunas, who caught 19 balls for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and steps in as the clear top target at the position. With Ridge Barker, Bryce Chambers, Will Randle and Spencer Shannon all unproven in the passing game, Masunas isn't competing for reps, he's the whole plan for tight end production in 2026.

Texas ground out just 138 rushing yards per game (90th) behind a line that still cleared room for 5.99 yards per play, and now eight of those linemen are gone, wiping out most of the room's experience. Steve Sarkisian is leaning on class over continuity to patch it, throwing four-star tackles John Turntine III and Melvin Siani and interior four-star Nicolas Robertson from Klein into the mix alongside seniors Brooks Kieschnick Jr. and Connor Robertson. With no clear returning starter identifiable up front, the rushing numbers are the thing to watch first if this remade group needs time to gel.

Colin Simmons is the headliner here, and his 12 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss mean Texas keeps its most disruptive piece off a group that already ranked 8th nationally in sacks. What changes for 2026 is the addition of five-star signee Richard Wesley off the high school ranks at Sierra Canyon to pair with Simmons on the edge, while Arkansas transfer Ian Geffrard brings 25 tackles and 4 TFL of proven interior production to replace the modest departed contributions of Cole Brevard and Travis Shaw. With Hero Kanu and Maraad Watson still anchoring the interior, the pass rush should stay a strength, but a defense that finished 98th in passing yards allowed per game needs the newcomers to affect throws immediately rather than just collapse the pocket.

Anthony Hill Jr. is gone, and Texas didn't just hope Ty'Anthony Smith would cover that gap, it went and bought Rasheem Biles from Pittsburgh, whose 100 tackles and 17 TFL dwarf anything this room produced last year outside of Smith's 59. That's the real story: a front seven that finished 8th nationally in sacks now hands its middle to a proven downhill hitter in Biles alongside Smith and Brad Spence, while five-star Tyler Atkinson and four-star Rocky Cummings arrive with no game tape but SEC-ready billing. The pass defense ranked 98th against the pass a year ago, so the bet here is that Biles' TFL production and the freshmen's ceiling push havoc rate up before that same soft coverage shows up again.

Texas leaned on its secondary to stop the run and rush the passer, not to cover, and 98th in passing yards allowed is the number that has to move. Michael Taaffe, Jaylon Guilbeau and Malik Muhammad are all gone, so Jelani McDonald (80 tackles, 4 TFL) becomes the anchor on the back end while Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips fill in the tackle totals departed corners left behind. The corner room gets rebuilt on talent rather than experience, with Rutgers transfer Bo Mascoe bringing 48 tackles of production and five-star signee John Meredith III arriving straight from high school at North Crowley alongside fellow freshmen Samari Matthews and Hayward Howard Jr., a group that has to grow up fast against SEC passing games.

Texas rebuilds its kicking operation almost from scratch after Mason Shipley (20 of 24, 108 points) and punter Jack Bouwmeester (44.5-yard average) both moved on. Gianni Spetic arrives from Memphis with the only proven track record in the group, having connected on 14 of 19 tries and topped out at 55 yards, which puts him in position to win the placekicking job over incoming Prosper product Jake Collett. Everyone else, from returning kicker Spencer Barnett to punter Mikey Bukauskas and long snappers Trey Dubuc and Trott O'Neal, arrives or returns without a college stat line, meaning Spetic's transfer experience carries outsized weight for how steady this unit looks in 2026.

Rebuilding Around Manning

Texas overhauled the skill positions around Arch Manning rather than the position itself, importing Raleek Brown from Arizona State to replace Quintrevion Wisner's backfield touches and Cam Coleman from Auburn to offset the departures of DeAndre Moore Jr. and Parker Livingstone. Manning's 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns buy real patience for that transition, but the bigger swing is defensive, where Rasheem Biles arrives from Pittsburgh with 100 tackles and 4.5 sacks to help fill the void left by Anthony Hill Jr. and Michael Taaffe. A No. 7 recruiting class stacked on top of that portal haul means 2026 is about whether the new pieces gel fast enough for a team that already went 10-3.

Raleek Brown

Quintrevion Wisner's 597 rushing yards are gone, and Texas replaced that void by importing Raleek Brown, who ran for 1141 yards at Arizona State. Arch Manning already has the passing numbers to anchor this offense with 3163 yards and 26 touchdowns, but a Sarkisian attack built on balance needs Brown to hit at SEC level immediately rather than ease into the job. If he produces close to his Arizona State workload, the ground game takes pressure off Manning and off a receiving corps still folding in Cam Coleman alongside Ryan Wingo.

Sarkisian's Road Trap

Texas went 10-3 straight up under Steve Sarkisian but covered just 38% of the time overall, and the gap is almost entirely a home-road split. Bettors who backed the Longhorns at home cashed at a 50% clip while going 6-0 outright, but the same team was 0-5 against the number away from Austin, including 0-2 as a road underdog. Until Sarkisian's group proves it can win by the expected margin outside DKR, the smart 2026 play is fading Texas the moment it leaves home.