Baylor Bears 2026 Season Preview

Aranda's Uneven Ledger

Baylor's No. 37 power rating sits oddly next to a 5-7 finish and a 3-6 mark in Big 12 play, the kind of gap that suggests a roster better than the record it produced in year six under Dave Aranda. That disconnect is the whole story entering year seven: either the on-field results catch up to the underlying talent, or 2025 was a fair read of where this program actually stands. Conference play was the specific problem, not some broader collapse, and fixing that ledger inside the league is what defines the season ahead.

Air Raid, Zero Resistance

Baylor's 2025 offense was legitimately dangerous, 4th nationally in passing yards per game, but a defense that finished 123rd in points allowed and 132nd in sacks turned shootouts into losses, and a minus-13 turnover margin (133rd) buried the record. The 2026 storyline is DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer taking over as the established starting quarterback, inheriting a passing attack that already worked without him. None of that fixes a front seven that generated 48 tackles for loss all year, so this stays a team that can outscore anyone and still lose the turnover battle.

Sawyer Robertson's 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns walk out the door, but Baylor didn't blink, flipping the transfer portal for DJ Lagway out of Florida to take over immediately. Lagway inherits a passing attack that finished 4th nationally in yards per game a year ago, with actual weapons and protection already in place, not a rebuild job. Nate Bennett, Edward Griffin and Cade Tessier remain in the room as depth, but this offense goes as Lagway goes, and the pieces around him suggest he's stepping into one of the better setups a transfer quarterback could ask for in the Big 12.

Bryson Washington's 788 yards and 6 scores are gone, and nobody left in the room has ever been the guy. Caden Knighten (469 yards) and Michael Turner (320 yards) split carries behind him last fall and now inherit a backfield that ranked just 83rd in rushing yards per game while Sawyer Robertson-led passing sat 4th nationally, so Baylor's ground game was already an afterthought before the leading rusher left. Wilson Eseme III and Dawson Pendergrass have no stat history to lean on, which means this stays a pass-first offense out of necessity, not preference, until Knighten or Turner proves he can carry a real workload.

Baylor's passing game ranked 4th nationally in yards per game last season, but almost none of the production that got it there is walking back through the door. Ashtyn Hawkins, Kobe Prentice and Kole Wilson combined for the bulk of the catches and touchdowns and are all gone, leaving Jadon Porter's 9 grabs as the top returning workload at the position. Dave Aranda answered with the portal rather than hope, landing Gavin Freeman (53 catches, 481 yards at Oklahoma State) and Hardley Gilmore IV (28 catches, 313 yards at Kentucky) to anchor a room that will look almost entirely different in 2026.

Michael Trigg's 50 catches and 694 yards walk out the door, leaving Matthew Klopfenstein, who caught just 8 passes for 73 yards, as the only proven pass-catching tight end on the roster. Baylor plugs the gap with Tony Livingston from Florida, who posted 11 catches for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns and projects as the immediate replacement for Trigg's production. That's a real talent downgrade at a position that fed a passing attack ranked 4th nationally in yards per game, and Cody Mladenka, Hawkins Polley and Brody Wilhelm all arrive with no catches on record, so Dave Aranda is betting on Livingston to keep the position from becoming a liability in year seven.

Baylor's passing game hummed at 310 yards per game (4th nationally) behind protection that allowed 22 sacks, but that group is being rebuilt from the ground up for 2026 with eight linemen gone, including Omar Aigbedion, Ryan Lengyel and Wes Tucker. Dave Aranda restocked with three-star transfers Nate Kibble, Cole Rhett, Cooper Lovelace and Yakiri Walker, plus four-star high school signee Donel Robinson, none of whom have snapped a college play yet. The ground game was already the softer half of this offense at 142 rushing yards per game (83rd), and with juniors Ka'Marii Landers and Kaden Sieracki among the most experienced returners by class alone, this is a line searching for continuity rather than a proven strength.

A line that managed just 12 sacks and 48 tackles for loss (132nd and 127th nationally) lost its two most productive tacklers in Cooper Lanz and Jackie Marshall, so Baylor went to the portal rather than the returning group to fix it. Hosea Wheeler arrives from Indiana with 31 tackles and 4 TFL, while Garrick Ponder brings 37 tackles and 4.5 sacks from Southern Miss to lead an edge rotation that also adds Ryan Davis from Kansas State. Devonte Tezino is the only proven returning piece with real production, which means this front's ceiling in 2026 rests almost entirely on how fast the transfers translate to a Big 12 line that ranked 122nd stopping the run.

Keaton Thomas's 99 tackles and 7 TFL walk out the door along with Emar'rion Winston's disruptive edge production, gutting a front seven that already ranked 127th in tackles for loss and 132nd in sacks. Kyland Reed's 50 tackles make him the clear returning anchor, but Baylor went looking outside for juice, and Georgia State transfer Kedrick Walker brings the exact traits missing last fall, 6.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks worth of backfield disruption. If Walker's college production translates against Big 12 lines, this group finally hits the backfield instead of just showing up 197 rushing yards deep.

Devyn Bobby, DJ Coleman and Kendrick Simpkins all leaving the safety room would be a problem for most units, but Baylor's back end was already the softer half of a defense that gave up 197 rushing yards a game (122nd) and rarely got off the field, with a 12.3% havoc rate that ranked 126th. Jacob Redding (53 tackles) and Tyler Turner return to anchor the safeties, while Kansas State imports Daniel Cobbs and Colby McCalister and corner Jayden Rowe join Devon Jordan in from Oklahoma to restock a group that lost 11 defensive backs. Passing yards allowed actually ranked a respectable 31st in 2025, so the real fix Dave Aranda needs from this reshuffled secondary is tackling in the box, not coverage.

Connor Hawkins made 18 of 22 field goals and left as the one true known commodity on this unit, and neither Rhett Armstrong nor Hayden Arnold has a single logged kick to show he can fill that role. Palmer Williams gives Baylor a stable leg at punter, averaging 46.9 yards on 27 attempts, but a placekicking job with zero returning production is a real problem for a team that finished 5-7 and lost close conference games. Dave Aranda's staff cannot afford another shaky specialist situation in year seven, and this position needs to sort itself out fast for Baylor to flip close Big 12 outcomes in 2026.

Lagway's New Weapons

Baylor gutted its receiving corps, losing Josh Cameron, Michael Trigg, Ashtyn Hawkins and Kole Wilson, and replaced Sawyer Robertson under center with DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer now firmly in place as QB1. The offense around him is largely rebuilt through the portal, with Gavin Freeman (53 catches, 481 yards at Oklahoma State) and Hardley Gilmore IV joining Tony Livingston at tight end. Defensively, Georgia State's Kedrick Walker and Southern Miss edge Garrick Ponder arrive to replace Keaton Thomas and Devyn Bobby, and with 31 new faces in, this is functionally a new roster learning Aranda's system together.

DJ Lagway

Sawyer Robertson's 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns walk out the door, and Baylor hands the offense to DJ Lagway, in from Florida after a 2264-yard, 16-touchdown season there. His 14 interceptions in that same span are the number that actually decides Baylor's 2026, since Aranda's offense cannot survive turnover swings after a 3-6 conference finish. Caden Knighten and Michael Turner give Lagway a run game to lean on, but this season rises or falls on whether he plays cleaner than his Florida tape suggested.

Baylor Never Covers

Dave Aranda's team failed bettors in almost every conceivable split last year, going 2-10 against the spread overall and a brutal 1-8 in conference games. Home favorites offered no refuge either, covering just 1-4, and even as home dogs or road dogs the Bears found ways to miss the number. With a 5-7 season now behind this program heading into year seven, backing Baylor to cover in 2026 requires ignoring a full season of evidence that this team plays down to its number.