SMU Mustangs 2026 Season Preview

Lashlee's Numbers Don't Add Up

SMU won at a 75.0% clip in conference play last year against a yardage margin that only projects to 53.9%, and that gap sits alongside a plus-9 turnover margin, both classic signs of a record propped up by things that rarely repeat. The offense also needed just 12.9 yards per point against a 14.1 league median, meaning Rhett Lashlee's group finished drives more efficiently than it is likely to again, while the defense let opponents cover 19.2 yards per point, bending without breaking in a way defenses seldom sustain. None of this touches Lashlee's standing, but it does mean the No. 24 rating and 9-4 record are set up for a pullback in 2026 even before accounting for roster turnover.

Jennings, Unblocked

Kevin Jennings is back after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns, and with a passing attack that ranked 14th nationally in yards per game, SMU's ceiling runs through his arm rather than a ground game that sat 95th in rushing yards per game. The bigger swing sits on defense, where 36 sacks and a havoc rate ranked 15th nationally show a front that wrecks plays behind the line, yet a pass defense allowing 283 yards per game (135th) is the soft spot opponents will target to slow Jennings down. If that back end tightens even marginally, the turnover margin of +9 and an explosive, efficient passing game make this a team built to win track meets rather than grind them out.

Tyler Van Dyke is gone, but SMU never has to answer a quarterback question because Kevin Jennings is back after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns, numbers that back up a passing attack ranked 14th nationally. The interceptions (13) are the real number to watch, and cutting those down is what turns this offense from explosive (15th) into efficient, since third-down conversion (56th) and success rate (64th) both lag the big-play production. Sam Houston transfer Mabrey Mettauer gives Rhett Lashlee a proven arm in reserve, but this is Jennings' offense to sharpen, not share.

SMU is replacing nearly the entire room that produced its ground game, with T.J. Harden's 787 yards and Chris Johnson Jr.'s 479 both off the roster, and the answer arrived from California in four-star transfer Kendrick Raphael, who ran for 952 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. That workload dwarfs anything on hand, with Dramekco Green (90 yards) the only returner with any real carries, so Raphael projects as the immediate starter rather than a committee piece. With four-star freshmen Christian Rhodes and EJ Kelly still unproven, this backfield's ceiling rides almost entirely on how fast Raphael's production translates against ACC fronts, a real swing factor for an offense that ranked just 95th in rushing yards per game a year ago.

SMU's passing attack ranked 14th nationally a year ago, and the Mustangs didn't just protect that strength, they upgraded it, adding East Carolina transfer Yannick Smith, who caught 44 balls for 583 yards and 5 scores last season, to pair with Yamir Knight's 54-catch, 637-yard production. Jalen Cooper adds a proven third option, and none of the departures (Cooper Reed, Dylan Goffney, Keaton Cheves) combined for meaningful production, so this room loses almost nothing while gaining a plug-and-play starter in Smith. With Rhett Lashlee's offense already generating explosive plays at a top-15 clip, the receiver corps looks built to push that passing game from good to a genuine national strength.

SMU gutted its tight end production, losing Matthew Hibner (31 catches, 436 yards) and RJ Maryland (27 catches, 322 yards) from a passing attack that ranked 14th nationally in yards per game. The fix came through the portal in Theo Melin Ohrstrom, a former Texas A&M target with 19 catches and 168 yards last season, plus Randy Pittman Jr. joining incumbent Randy Pittman, who caught 23 balls for 208 yards in 2025. With Melin Ohrstrom slotting in as the proven veteran and Pittman back to anchor the room, the position group looks retooled rather than rebuilt for Rhett Lashlee's explosive passing scheme.

SMU's line gave up just 19 sacks and helped push 283 passing yards per game a season ago, but the ground game lagged at 134 yards per game, 95th nationally, and that gap is the room's real question in 2026. Most of the group is back, led by seniors Addison Nichols, Andrew Chamblee, Hunter Ryan and PJ Williams plus junior Alex Woods, and Rhett Lashlee added four-star signees Drew Evers, Evan Goodwin and Sam Utu to push the interior and tackle spots. With 14 linemen returning against 7 departures, the pass protection numbers should hold, but fixing that rushing rank is what determines whether this offense takes the next step.

SMU's front produced 36 sacks and ranked 14th in sacks nationally, but the two players who made that happen, Isaiah Smith (9 sacks, 18 TFL) and Terry Webb (5.5 sacks, 7 TFL), are both gone, along with Jeffrey M'ba's 5.5 sacks up front. Jahkai Lang returns off just 25 tackles, so the pass rush gets reloaded through the portal, with Marques White (5 sacks, 10.5 TFL at Massachusetts) and Ira Singleton (2.5 sacks at South Florida) brought in to replace that lost production off the edge. Given a pass defense that already allowed 283 yards per game (135th), White and Singleton need to hit the ground rushing or SMU's havoc numbers slide backward even as the run defense stays stout.

Brandon Booker (69 tackles) and Alexander Kilgore (3.5 TFL) return to anchor a group that helped SMU stuff the run at 19th nationally, and the addition of Clemson transfer Jamal Anderson and Bowling Green's Caden Marshall gives Rhett Lashlee more bodies who can shed blocks near the line. The real question is what these linebackers can do in coverage, since the Mustangs ranked 135th in passing yards allowed a year ago, and Brandon Miyazono's 4.5 TFL suggest a group built to attack the backfield more than sit in zone drops. If Marshall and Anderson can hold up matching tight ends and backs out of the backfield, the front seven's havoc numbers carry the whole defense forward.

The problem last season was obvious: SMU stuffed the run at a top-20 clip but got torched through the air, ranking 135th in passing yards allowed. Rhett Lashlee's answer is a near-total overhaul at cornerback, importing UTSA safety Jimmy Wyrick (62 tackles) alongside three-star corners Deuce Gilbert, Jayvon Thomas and Jarvis Lee, while William Nettles (37 tackles) and Marcellus Barnes Jr. (32 tackles, 2 TFL) hold over as the only proven coverage pieces. Losing Isaiah Nwokobia's 80 tackles and Kyron Chambers stings, but with Tyren Polley and Jaden Milliner-Jones back at safety, the bigger swing factor is whether Wyrick and the transfer corners can actually fix the coverage issues that a strong front couldn't mask in 2025.

Nick Reed already did the job in 2025, hitting 25 of 30 field goals with a long of 55 and piling up 105 points, and every bit of that production is back for 2026 while Sam Keltner and his 78 points are the ones who left. That leaves SMU with a proven closer rather than a battle to replace him, a rarity at a position most ACC teams are still auditioning for. Wade McSparron returning after a 42.5-yard average gives Rhett Lashlee a specialist corps that needs no rebuilding, just more of the same.

New Backfield, Same Jennings

SMU shipped out 25 portal players including its top two backs, T.J. Harden and Chris Johnson Jr., and both outside receiving threats in Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson, but Kevin Jennings is back after throwing for 3,641 yards, and that continuity at quarterback changes how the rest of the churn should read. Kendrick Raphael arrives from California off a 952-yard, 13-touchdown season to replace the lost rushing production outright, while Yannick Smith comes in from East Carolina with 44 catches and 583 yards to fill the void at receiver. The bigger swing is on defense, where Ahmaad Moses and his 104 tackles are gone and the incoming crop, led by edge rushers Marques White and Ira Singleton, arrives with modest college production to replace a proven safety.

Kendrick Raphael

T.J. Harden's 787 yards and 9 scores are gone, and SMU handed the backfield to Kendrick Raphael, a 4-star import from California who ran for 952 yards and 13 touchdowns before ever putting on a Mustangs jersey. Kevin Jennings is a proven, settled answer at quarterback after throwing for 3641 yards, but he has 13 interceptions on his ledger, and a run game that can finish drives around the goal line takes pressure off him to force throws. If Raphael produces at his prior level, SMU's offense stays balanced enough to hold serve in the ACC again.

Backers cashed in ACC play

SMU won straight up almost everywhere last season, but the number often had them covered anyway, a 46% overall cover rate against a 9-4 record. The exception was inside conference play, where Rhett Lashlee's team went 6-2 on the field and 5-3 against the number, and against ranked opponents, where SMU covered both times it played straight up. Bettors leaned on those Mustangs the wrong way as home favorites, going just 2-3 against the spread, a gap that points to lines catching up to SMU's floor before its ceiling.