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Scotty Walden is betting a roster that returns just 19% of its production and ranks 101st in accumulated talent can still climb out of the Mountain West basement, which makes 2026 less about last year's 2-10 mark than about whether a near-total roster overhaul closes the gap between a 132nd-ranked power rating and Walden's third-year ambitions.
Can UTEP surround EJ Colson with enough returning pieces to keep him upright? With just 9.3% of offensive production back, Colson will be throwing to mostly unfamiliar targets and working behind a retooled line, and that lack of continuity is more likely to show up as early-season turnovers and sacks than instant chemistry. The most probable outcome is a rough first half of the schedule as the pieces around him catch up to what he already showed at Incarnate Word.
The trips to Oklahoma and Michigan are placeholders on the schedule, not tests, so UTEP's actual season lives in the muddle of home dates with Nevada, San José State and Wyoming, none of which project as better than a coin flip. That cluster, along with a road trip to New Mexico that projects as the toughest true conference test, will decide whether Scotty Walden's team climbs out of a 2-10 season or repeats it. A schedule ranked 83rd in difficulty and a projected 4-8 mark suggest this group is built to scrap for bowl eligibility in November, not chase statement wins in September.
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Scotty Walden's third season follows a 2-10 finish that included a 1-7 mark in conference play, and the power ratings back up how rough it was, slotting UTEP at #132 nationally. That kind of season-long slide, not one bad week, is what shapes the backdrop for 2026. The record and the rating tell the same story from two angles, and neither leaves much room for a rosy read heading into year three.
UTEP's offense finished 135th in success rate but still ranked 2nd nationally in explosiveness, a split that says the Miners couldn't stay on schedule but could strike when they broke free. EJ Colson, in from Incarnate Word after throwing for 2,142 yards and 16 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, takes over an attack that averaged only 5.07 yards per play and converted a brutal 30.3% of third downs. If Colson can turn those explosive shots into sustained drives instead of college football's most inconsistent offense, the 23.3 points per game mark should climb.
UTEP's quarterback room got a total overhaul, and the answer arrived from Incarnate Word in EJ Colson, who threw for 2,142 yards and 16 touchdowns and now takes over an offense that managed just 23.3 points and a 30.3% third-down rate a year ago. That's not a fluke of scheme, either, since Scotty Walden's attack ranked 2nd nationally in explosiveness on successful plays, meaning Colson inherits a unit built to hit chunk gains but that stalled out constantly on money downs. With Shay Smith and Chad Warner carrying no real passing résumé and both departed passers leaving behind punting stats rather than production, Colson isn't fighting for the job, he's the whole plan for fixing a passing attack that finished 84th in yards per game.
UTEP is rebuilding its backfield almost from scratch after Ashten Emory (569 yards, 4 TD) and Hahsaun Wilson (225 yards, 1 TD) both left, gutting a run game that was already 117th nationally in rushing yards per game. Elijah McCoy and Josh Bell return with only 47 and 4 yards on the ground, so the real hope arrives via transfer in Lamar Sperling, who ran for 234 yards and a score at Buffalo, and Missouri's Tavorus Jones. Sperling projects as the lead back in Scotty Walden's offense, and given how explosive UTEP's occasional successful plays already were (2nd nationally in explosiveness), a back who can consistently hit those cracks matters more than the ugly 33.0% success rate suggests.
UTEP's leading returning receiver caught 21 passes last year, which tells the real story: Kenny Odom (62 catches, 582 yards, 6 TD) and Wondame Davis Jr. (25 catches, 604 yards, 6 TD) are both gone, wiping out most of the room's production. Josh Schuchts (21-232-3) becomes the clear top target by default, with Jaylan Brown a distant complementary piece, so Scotty Walden went to the portal for Royal Capell, who arrives from Oklahoma State with only 10 catches for 47 yards himself. That leaves a passing offense that already ranked 84th in yards per game leaning on unproven names like JD Wallace and Daveon Singleton to find snaps fast.
UTEP's tight end room produced almost nothing to build on in 2025, Judah Ezinwa's 4 catches for 76 yards the only real receiving line in the group, and the position barely touched the ball in an offense that ranked 133rd in third down rate and 135th in success rate. Three-star signees Benny Okwura, Jackson Stoner and Johan Camacho arrive with no college stats yet but give Scotty Walden fresh bodies to throw into a room that returns Cash Cheeks and Luka Matamoros without a catch between them. If this offense is going to find the explosive plays it flashed last year, it will need Ezinwa or one of those incoming freshmen to become an actual weapon, not just a blocker.
A line that allowed 26 sacks and posted a 33.0% success rate last season is getting an overhaul, not a patch job. Ten linemen are out the door, including Tyrone McDuffie and Jake Utley, and Scotty Walden went out and signed a five-man haul to answer it: Chase Elrod and Jaymon Lamb at tackle, Brian Williams Jr. and Pryce McClanahan inside, and high school signee Eddie Lartigue up front. With more gone than back and no clear returning starters to point to among Juan Camacho Jr., Rolando Beltran, Diego De La Cruz, Maddox Huber, Tyrone McDuffie III and Preston Perkins, this room is being built new around whichever of those newcomers wins jobs, and UTEP's offense cannot climb out of the bottom third nationally in yards per play until it does.
UTEP's front loses its entire production base up top: KD Johnson's 55 tackles and 10 TFL, Elijah Baldwin's 3.5 sacks and Ashaad Hall's 4 TFL all walk out the door, leaving Shakaun Bowser (23 tackles, 2 sacks) as the only proven interior presence. The rebuild leans hard on the portal, with Eastern Michigan's Sterling Miles (34 tackles, 4 TFL) plugged in at EDGE and Northwestern State's Preston Hickey adding another body up front, while a cluster of unproven names, Ryland Bradford, Derek Burns, Kelton Farmer and Oryend Fisher, fill out a line with almost no returning stat sheet behind Bowser. A group that finished 26th in tackles for loss and 21st in run-stuff rate has the scheme fit and the havoc traits, but replacing that much sack production with transfers and unproven pieces makes points allowed, not TFL numbers, the thing to watch in 2026.
Jayden Wilson's 92 tackles and 8 TFL were the one consistent force in a linebacker corps that lost its second-leading hitter, Micah Davey, and his 114 tackles to departure. UTEP didn't replace that production with a marquee transfer but with volume, adding Japrei Wafer and Jalen Hamilton out of high school plus Texas Southern's Isaiah Bogerty, none of whom carry meaningful college tackle numbers yet. That leaves Wilson to anchor a front that already finished 26th in tackles for loss and 21st in run-stuff rate, a disruptive group whose 111th-ranked scoring defense says the bigger issues sit elsewhere, likely in coverage and finishing drives.
Xavier Smith's 60 tackles anchor a secondary that gave up 30.4 points a game, and the bigger loss is Neil Campbell's 56 tackles and 6 TFL at corner. Ekow Taylor, who chipped in 2 sacks last year, and TJ Tillman inherit the corner spots, while East Texas A&M transfer Kaleb Miles arrives with 15 tackles of his own experience to push for early snaps. The safety room gets a youth influx with four 3-star freshmen, but none carry any prior stats, so Kode Lowe's 34 tackles and 4 TFL have to carry the back end while that group develops.
UTEP didn't trust its 2025 kicking answers enough to run it back, and the portal haul makes that plain. Carlos Arreola made just 3 of 6 field goals last year, so Scotty Walden went out and got Cade Hechter from UT Martin, who hit 15 of 17 with a 41-yard long, and he should simply take the job. Brady Braun arrives from Gardner-Webb averaging 48.1 yards a punt to replace Noah Botsford's departed 45.6 mark, an upgrade at a position that quietly sank a two-win team last season.
UTEP rebuilt its offense wholesale after a 2-10 season, and the whole thing now runs through EJ Colson, who arrives from Incarnate Word after throwing for 2,142 yards and 16 touchdowns and steps straight into the starting job. The bigger problem is who he throws to: Kenny Odom (62 catches, 582 yards) and Wondame Davis Jr. (604 yards, 6 TD) both left, and the only portal answer at receiver, Royal Capell, caught just 10 passes at Oklahoma State. With Ashten Emory's 569 rushing yards also gone and replaced by lower-volume backs in Lamar Sperling and Tavorus Jones, Colson's efficiency numbers from the Southland have to scale up fast or this offense stalls again.
UTEP handed its offense to EJ Colson, a transfer from Incarnate Word who threw for 2,142 yards and 16 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, and everything Scotty Walden builds in year three runs through whether that efficiency travels to the Mountain West. A 2-10 team does not need Colson to be spectacular, it needs him to protect the ball behind a supporting cast led by Josh Schuchts and Lamar Sperling while the defense, anchored by Jayden Wilson, figures out how to hold leads instead of chasing them.
UTEP didn't just lose games last year, it lost bettors' money doing it, covering just once in seven conference tries and going 1-5 against the number at home. The most damning number is the 2-7 mark against the spread the week after a loss, proof this program had no answer for adversity under Scotty Walden and no reason for the market to expect one. Until that in-conference number moves, expect Vegas to keep setting lines that dare UTEP backers to walk away.
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