Boise State Broncos 2026 Season Preview

The Efficiency Gap

Spencer Danielson's fourth team beat UNLV 38-21 for the conference title before Washington rolled Boise State 10-38 in the bowl, a split that hints at real cracks under the 9-5 finish. The yardage margin in league play actually implied a lower win rate than Boise State posted, and the offense needed 14.2 yards per point against a 14.1 league median while the defense let opponents score too cheaply at 14.0 yards per point, so the record flattered a team that wasn't dominating the details. With 61% of its production back, Danielson's first act in the Pac-12 is tightening a unit that talked its way to 9-5 more than it earned it.

Madsen's Ceiling Problem

Maddux Madsen is back for another year running Spencer Danielson's offense, but 2333 yards and 18 touchdowns against 9 picks came with an offense that ranked just 77th in success rate and 73rd in points per scoring opportunity, a unit that moved the ball without cashing in. The talent and the yardage were never the issue at 424 yards a game; the 26 sacks allowed and inability to stay ahead of the chains explain why a 9-5 team left points on the field. Madsen's floor is proven, but Boise's 2026 offensive identity depends on tightening that gap between yards gained and points scored, not on finding a new arm.

Maddux Madsen returns as the unquestioned starter after throwing for 2333 yards and 18 touchdowns, and his continuity is the reason Boise State's offense should keep humming behind a unit that already ranked 24th nationally in total yards. The nine interceptions and 26 sacks allowed are the real ceiling on this group, not the quarterback spot itself, since Madsen already has the job locked down. Max Cutforth gives Spencer Danielson a proven backup arm, while three-star arrivals Jackson Taylor and Cash Herrera are developmental additions rather than threats to the starting job.

Dylan Riley (1125 yards, 10 TD) and Sire Gaines (812 yards, 8 TD) both return, giving Boise State the rare luxury of a proven one-two punch while most of the room around them turns over. Malik Sherrod's 418 yards are gone, but the addition of Juelz Goff, who ran for 270 yards and 5 scores at Pittsburgh, gives Spencer Danielson a third option who has already produced against college competition rather than a total unknown. With Riley and Gaines shouldering the load, Keilan Chavies and Harry Stewart III can be eased in behind two backs who already carried this offense to a 179-yard rushing average.

No Boise State receiver topped 21 catches last season, and the room's top producer, Chase Penry, is gone, so the Broncos went shopping. Darren Morris arrives from Southern already possessing a 508-yard season, instantly the most proven target on the roster, while Ben Ford (325 yards, 5 TD) and Cameron Bates provide the returning floor around him. The bet here is that Morris' volume from Southern translates against tougher competition, because behind him this group is mostly unproven names hoping to turn a run-heavy, 179-yard rushing attack into more explosive passing downs.

Matt Lauter's 37 catches walk out the door, but Matt Wagner already outproduced him in touchdowns last fall and now becomes the clear top target after his 23-catch season. Troy Grizzle's lone catch went for a score, a sign there's a role for a second body in that offense beyond just Wagner. Three incoming three-stars, led by Keawe Browne, arrive with zero college production, which means Boise's ground-heavy attack (179 rushing yards per game, 38th nationally) will lean on Wagner as a blocker and safety-valve receiver while the newcomers develop behind him.

Boise State allowed 26 sacks and posted a middling 41.8% success rate up front last season, and the room now turns over almost entirely with 9 linemen gone, including Kage Casey, Tyler Keinath and Eyitayo Omotinugbon. Spencer Danielson is filling the gaps with a four-man high school haul at tackle in Kole Cronin, Hakeim Smalls, Connor LaGrow and Iosua Faleagafua, plus Oregon State transfer Zander Esty at guard, none of whom carry any prior stats. With no reliable way to know who actually started last fall, seniors Daylon Metoyer, Jake Steele and Roger Carreon are the safest bets to anchor a line that reads more like a rebuild than a returning strength.

Braxton Fely's 5.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss walk out the door, and no returning lineman comes close to that production, with Lopez Sanusi's 13 tackles and David Latu's 3 TFL topping the depth chart. Boise State answers with bodies rather than a proven pass rusher, adding five three-star linemen including edges Gustaf Henriks Ras and Corey Webb Jr. alongside Paz St. John, Deuce Alailefaleula and Rowan Rupp, none of whom have played a snap yet. A defense that already ranked 55th in sacks needs Michael Madrie and that incoming class to generate pressure that simply was not there on paper last season.

Jayden Virgin-Morgan is the anchor here, coming off 56 tackles, 6 sacks and 13 TFL, and his ability to disrupt behind the line matters more now that Marco Notarainni's 77 tackles are gone. Boen Phelps (66 tackles) and Jake Ripp (43 tackles) give Boise State a returning core that already produced 84 team tackles for loss, 22nd nationally, a big reason the pass defense ranked 14th in yards allowed per game. Kansas transfer Logan Brantley adds depth after logging 7 tackles and 1.5 TFL last season, but the run defense sat at 86th in rushing yards allowed, and fixing that falls on Virgin-Morgan and Phelps setting the edge rather than any newcomer.

Boise State loses three of its top tacklers in the secondary, Jeremiah Earby, Zion Washington and A'Marion McCoy, gutting a pass defense that ranked 14th nationally in yards allowed per game. Jaden Mickey is the anchor left standing, coming off 38 tackles and 7 TFL, and the staff is filling the rest with youth and portal pieces rather than proven production, none bigger than JeRico Washington Jr., who posted 43 tackles at Kennesaw State. With Sherrod Smith and Derek Ganter Jr. the only other returners with real snaps, this group's ability to keep protecting a defense that struggled against the run (86th) will decide whether that pass efficiency holds up.

Colton Boomer made 11 of 15 field goals and piled up 79 points last fall, and with Canaan Moore back as the only real competition after going 1 of 2, the placekicking job stays Boomer's to run away with. Oscar Doyle returns to punt after averaging 43.6 yards on 56 boots, giving Boise State steady, established legs at both spots rather than a rebuild. The one true unknown is long snapper, where incumbent Caden Kellow and freshman addition Tyler Himebauch sort out a job that lost both Mason Hutton and Hunter Higham.

Rebuilding Around Madsen

Boise State's skill-position overhaul is stark: Malik Sherrod, Latrell Caples, Chris Marshall and Chase Penry are all gone, stripping away nearly every meaningful touch outside the backfield. Maddux Madsen returns to run it, but he's throwing to a rebuilt receiving corps led by transfer Darren Morris (508 yards at Southern) and handing off to portal backs Juelz Goff and Harry Stewart III rather than any holdover. With a 51st-ranked class and 19 outgoing transfers against 11 arrivals, the Broncos are betting Madsen's continuity covers for a genuinely different cast around him.

Dylan Riley's workload

Boise State already has its ceiling-raiser in Dylan Riley, who ran for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns behind Madsen last season, and now inherits Malik Sherrod's carries with Sire Gaines and Pittsburgh transfer Juelz Goff spelling him rather than pushing him. If Riley shoulders that expanded load without wearing down, Maddux Madsen gets to operate off play-action instead of bailing out a shaky protection, and this offense stays the version that went 6-2 in conference rather than the one that threw 9 interceptions.

Bronco Backers Cash at Home

Boise State bettors made money simply by staying home, with Spencer Danielson's team going 6-1 against the spread there, including 6-1 as a home favorite. The road was a different story entirely, a 2-3-1 mark that flips to 1-1 covering as an underdog away from Albertsons Stadium. That gap sets up 2026 as another year where the value is backing the Broncos in Boise and looking elsewhere on the road.