Nevada Wolf Pack 2026 Season Preview

Choate's Third Year

Nevada limped through 2026 setup with a 3-9 record and a 2-6 mark in conference play, the kind of season that leaves a power rating of 116th and not much cover. Jeff Choate heads into year three still searching for the on-field jump that separates a rebuild from a stall, and last season's league record gives him little benefit of the doubt heading into 2026. The program's trajectory, not any single player, is the story here.

Points Were the Problem

A -12 turnover margin and 2.67 points per scoring opportunity explain how Nevada scored 17.6 a game despite grinding out 155 rushing yards, and that finishing failure is exactly what UCLA transfer Luke Duncan was brought in to fix. Duncan takes over an offense that ranked 127th in third down rate and 124th in success rate, so his job is less about big-play juice and more about simply keeping drives alive and turnovers off the board. If Nevada just converts red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of empty possessions, the offense looks radically different in 2026 without the defense needing to improve at all.

Nevada's passing game finished 127th nationally last season, and Carter Jones' 8 interceptions against 6 touchdowns explains why. The fix is UCLA transfer Luke Duncan, who steps in as the 2026 starter after throwing 2 touchdowns with zero picks in limited work, a clean-ball approach this offense badly needs after ranking 133rd in points per scoring opportunity. Jones and AJ Bianco return as insurance, but the job belongs to Duncan, and Nevada's ceiling depends on him turning red-zone trips into points rather than empty possessions.

Caleb Ramseur's 683 yards walk out the door, leaving a room of complementary pieces rather than a proven lead back. Herschel Turner (353 yards) figures to get the first crack at volume, with Ky Woods and Dominic Kelley, who scored the group's only touchdown, spelling him behind a line that already allowed just 18 sacks. Nevada signed three-star Bronwyn Rios out of Reed, but asking a true freshman to fix a run game averaging 155 yards a game inside an offense that finished 133rd in points per scoring opportunity is a lot to bank on right away.

Nevada's leading returning wideout, Marshaun Brown, caught just 16 passes for 164 yards last year, which tells the real story: this passing game was practically nonexistent before Jeff Choate went to the portal for answers. Donnie Cheers (44 catches, 585 yards, 5 TD at Southeast Missouri State) and Jaceon Doss (29 catches, 657 yards, 5 TD at Towson) arrive with more combined production than the entire departed group of Marcus Bellon, Dakota Thomas and Jordan Brown put together, and both should start immediately. That kind of transfer investment only matters if it fixes a passing attack that ranked 127th in yards per game, and Cheers and Doss now carry the burden of proving it can.

Jett Carpenter's 35 catches for 374 yards walk out the door with nothing close to it behind him, since Jayden O'Rourke (2 catches, 25 yards) and DJ Asiasi (1 catch, 5 yards) combined for barely a quarter of what Carpenter did alone, and Carter Eck arrives with no statistical track record at all. That's a real problem for an offense that already ranked 127th in passing yards per game and 133rd in points per scoring opportunity, since a passing attack that inefficient in the red zone can't afford to lose its most productive pass-catching tight end without a proven answer in place. Until O'Rourke or Eck shows he can approach Carpenter's production, Nevada's offense has one fewer weapon to work with in an already stretched passing game.

Nevada's offense scraped out just 5.02 yards per play and a 36.6% success rate in 2025, and the line responsible for that lands a nearly fresh cast for 2026 with eight departures clearing out, including Josh Grabowski, Andrew Madrigal and John Bolles. What's left leans young, with Dylan Lopez, Snoop Leota-Amaama and RJ Esmon among the most experienced by class year, and Jeff Choate is filling the rest with a five-man recruiting haul headlined by tackles Terrence Johnson, Colton Hogge and Max Zuro alongside interior additions Ethan Newman and Justin Blakeley. Pass protection wasn't the problem, since Nevada's 18 sacks allowed ranked 21st nationally, but until this remade group proves it can move people, the 147 passing yards per game and 32.1% third-down rate look like the more likely inheritance.

Dylan Labarbera's 88 tackles and 6.5 sacks were the rare bright spot on a front that finished 108th in sacks and 110th in run-stuff rate, and Nevada is betting its entire pass rush plan on him doing it again with far less proven help around him. Jonathan Maldonado's 9 TFL and Nelson Ropati's production both walked out the door, so a wave of unproven three-star freshmen (Sam Davidson IV, Jeremiah Nonu, Pita Takafua) and EDGE addition Matt Perez have to grow up fast just to keep the run defense respectable. Indiana State transfer Brandon Amaniampong arrives with modest production, but this group's floor in 2026 is whatever Labarbera can generate on his own snaps.

Stone Combs (72 tackles) and Sam Cook (6.5 TFL) are both gone, and nothing on the returning list comes close to replicating that production, EJ Smith's 28 tackles is the high mark among Nevada holdovers at the position. That gap gets filled by transfers rather than internal promotion, with Poasa Utu arriving from Oklahoma State carrying 8 tackles, 1.5 sacks and 1.5 TFL, plus Jeremy Naborne-Owens in from Colorado State. Given a defense that ranked 108th in sacks and 110th in run-stuff rate last season, Utu's disruption skills matter more to Nevada's 2026 outlook than any name still on the roster.

Nevada didn't just lose tackle production in AJ Odums and Hayden McDonald, it lost its top two tacklers in the back end, and Jeff Choate answered by importing a near-total new cornerback room. Joshua Scott arrives from Eastern Michigan with 29 tackles of starting experience, four-star Arkansas transfer Selman Bridges brings a talent jump the position hasn't seen, and Jaylen Webb comes over from Boise State to man safety. That's a lot of new faces replacing departed production at once, but the unit they're joining ranked 100th in havoc rate and 110th in run-stuff rate last season, so the newcomers aren't stepping into a finished product, they're the whole renovation.

Joe McFadden already banked 19 of 25 field goals with a 50-yarder on his resume, yet Nevada still brought in Kyle Nelson from Bishop Manogue and returns Tyler Manship, so Jeff Choate is stacking the kicking room rather than trusting one leg to carry it. That crowding suggests McFadden's job is not guaranteed by name alone, even with production already on the board. Bailey Ettridge is the sure thing here, back after 45 punts at a 45.1 average, giving a 3-9 team at least one settled leg while the placekicking picture sorts itself out.

Wholesale Reconstruction

Nevada churned out 21 players and brought in 14, and the offense is rebuilding almost from scratch behind Luke Duncan, the UCLA transfer who takes over at quarterback after throwing for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in limited action. He inherits a receiving corps stocked with imports Jaceon Doss (29 catches, 657 yards, 5 TD at Towson) and Donnie Cheers (44 catches, 585 yards, 5 TD at Southeast Missouri State), replacing the production of departed rusher Caleb Ramseur and tight end Jett Carpenter. A 98th-ranked recruiting class means Jeff Choate is leaning on the portal rather than high school talent to turn things around after a 3-9 season, and how fast Duncan and his new weapons mesh will shape whether that bet pays off.

Luke Duncan's arm

Nevada handed the job to Luke Duncan, the UCLA transfer, over Carter Jones, who threw eight interceptions against six touchdowns a year ago and clearly needs to sit as the safer option. Duncan's modest sample of 235 yards and two scores has to grow fast, and his answer determines whether Jaceon Doss, the Towson transfer who caught 29 balls for 657 yards, becomes a real weapon or wasted target share in Jeff Choate's third year.

Road Warriors, Home Frauds

Nevada's number tells a split story that has nothing to do with its 3-9 finish. On the road, this team covered at a 67% clip and actually beat the spread as a home dog too, the kind of profile that says bettors kept overrating whoever Jeff Choate's Wolf Pack were facing. At home, though, Nevada cratered to a 20% cover rate and went winless against the spread as a favorite in its own building, a genuine red flag for a program that needs Mackay Stadium to mean something in year three. Whatever fixes that split, home comfort or away-game freedom, decides whether the market keeps sleeping on this team in 2026.