UNLV Rebels 2026 Season Preview

Mullen's Margins Won't Repeat

Dan Mullen's second year opens with a record that flattered him more than the tape did. UNLV won at a 75.0% clip in conference play despite a yardage margin against those same league foes that projects closer to 55.2%, and a 5-2 mark in one-score games plus a plus-7 turnover margin over 14 games are exactly the kind of results that tend to even out rather than repeat. None of that erases a 10-4 season and a trip to the conference championship game, but it means Mullen's real test in 2026 is whether UNLV can win more like a team playing to its yardage numbers, not one riding close-game luck again.

Efficient Attack, Leaky Defense

Jackson Arnold takes over an offense that already hummed without him, a unit that ranked 12th nationally in yards per play and 19th in success rate behind a 196-yard rushing attack. The real 2026 question is whether that efficiency can outrun a defense that allowed 6.39 yards per play, 126th nationally, and let opponents stay on schedule 103rd among the field. UNLV's 10-4 season was built on scoring points and winning the turnover battle at +7, and Arnold's job is simply to keep doing both because the defense gave no indication in 2025 it will bail him out.

Anthony Colandrea's 3,459 yards and 23 touchdowns walk out the door, and UNLV replaces him not with a camp battle but with Jackson Arnold, the Auburn transfer stepping into a top-25 scoring offense. His 2025 numbers at Auburn were modest, 1,309 yards with 6 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, but he inherits a machine that ranked 12th nationally in yards per play and 18th in points per scoring opportunity under Dan Mullen. The bigger question is protection, not production, with 25 sacks allowed a year ago, and how well that line shields Arnold will decide whether this offense keeps humming or takes a step back.

Jai'Den Thomas turned 1,034 yards and 12 touchdowns into the foundation of a ground game that ranked 23rd nationally in rushing yards per game, and with Keyvone Lee's 440 yards gone to departure, that workload only concentrates further on Thomas and Jaylon Glover, who chipped in 384 yards of his own. Behind them the depth is unproven: Darrien Jones and Kamran Williams combined for single-digit yardage, and 3-star signee Skylar Lendsey-Vann arrives with no college tape. UNLV's offense hit 6.81 yards per play a year ago, and that number holds only as long as Thomas stays the workhorse and Glover proves he can be more than a change of pace.

Jaden Bradley's 58 catches for 931 yards and Troy Omeire's 521 yards are gone, and none of the returning wideouts, not Taeshaun Lyons (234 yards) nor DeAngelo Irvin Jr. (188 yards), caught more than 18 passes last year, so Dan Mullen went to the portal to fill the gap. Troy Stellato arrives from Kentucky and Taz Reddicks from Oregon State to pair with three-star high school signees Jesse Harden, Tatum Bell Jr. and Vincent Carner, betting that volume of arrivals beats waiting on Lyons or Irvin to become the every-down option. With a passing game that ranked just 42nd nationally in yards per game even with last year's production, the newcomers need to hit the ground faster than the departed group did as sophomores.

UNLV loses its entire production at tight end, with Nick Elksnis (12 catches, 145 yards, 2 TD) and Var'Keyes Gumms (11 catches, 168 yards, 3 TD) both gone. Matt Byrnes returns with only 2 catches for 24 yards, and Arizona transfer Keyan Burnett arrives with a nearly identical line of 2 catches for 11 yards, meaning this group has combined for barely more production than either departed starter posted alone. That leaves Jae Beasley II, Velltray Jefferson and Andrew Savaiinaea as unproven pieces in an offense that ranked 12th nationally in yards per play, putting real weight on the running game and passing attack to cover for a tight end room starting from almost nothing.

A line that helped produce 6.81 yards per play (12th nationally) and only 25 sacks allowed last season now loses six pieces, including Alani Makihele, Nick Scalise, James Faminu, Donavan Manson and Malik McGowan. Dan Mullen restocks with Baylor transfer Colton Thomasson at tackle alongside a haul of high school signees, tackles Malik White and Jesus Garcia II and interior linemen Eli Sanchez and Josh Haney, while juniors Alekai Afoa and Austin Boyd give the room its most experienced returning faces. With none of last year's exact starters confirmed back, this is a rebuild up front, and how fast Thomasson and the freshman tackles blend with Afoa and Boyd will decide whether UNLV can keep protecting the quarterback the way it did in 2025.

UNLV's line put up 30 sacks a year ago, but the two biggest names behind that number, Tunmise Adeleye (48 tackles, 6 sacks) and Lucas Conti (2.5 sacks, 4 TFL), are both gone, and nobody returning approaches that production, Cohen Fuller's 27 tackles and 3.5 TFL is the high mark left on the depth chart. Dan Mullen answered with a five-man high school haul headlined by Aveon Williams, Prin Fox and Bryce Robinson, plus Poe Purcell out of Eldorado, none of whom have logged a college snap, while Tennessee transfer Herb Gray arrives with just 1 tackle to his name. That is a lot of unproven bodies replacing real production up front, and it lines up with a run defense that already ranked 105th in rushing yards allowed and 126th in yards per play allowed a year ago.

UNLV's defense already leaked yards at 419 per game and 6.39 per play (126th) last season, and now the group replacing that production loses Marsel McDuffie's 112 tackles along with Isaiah Patterson, Chief Borders, Donovan Spellman and Bryce Edmondson. Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu, who racked up 61 tackles and 5 TFL, is the lone proven every-down piece left, flanked by Kamuela Ka'aihue and Elias Rudolph in more limited roles. Dan Mullen leaned on the portal to patch the gap, bringing in Cam Santee, Mark Iheanachor and Dee Crayton, but none arrive with the tackle numbers McDuffie is leaving behind.

A defense that gave up 6.39 yards per play (126th) loses its top tackler in Jaheem Joseph and disruptors in Aamaris Brown and Andrew Powdrell, but Jake Pope, who piled up 80 tackles with 2.5 TFL last year, stays put as the steadying piece. Tre Fulton, Mumu Bin-Wahad and Laterrance Welch return with modest tackle numbers, while the fixes arrive by transfer, Landyn Cleveland from Oklahoma State (33 tackles, 1.5 TFL) and Kyron Chambers from SMU (30 tackles, 2.5 TFL) both project as instant starters alongside Pope. That group has to tighten a pass defense that allowed 242 yards per game (111th) even as the pass rush behind them held up at 30 sacks (42nd), so the newcomers' ball skills matter more than their raw tackle counts.

The kicking battle is already decided: Ramon Villela hit 15 of 20 field goals with a long of 50 and racked up 103 points, and he heads into 2026 as the clear boot. Cam Brown returns after averaging 43.8 yards on 46 punts, giving UNLV rare continuity at both specialist spots while Kennesaw State transfer Matthew Choules waits in reserve. The turnover is up front on the snapping unit, where Andrew O'Reilly takes over long-snapping duties after both Andrew McIlquham and Sam Wolfenden departed.

Trading Volume for Turnover

Anthony Colandrea's 3,459 yards and 23 touchdowns walk out the door, along with Jaden Bradley's 58 catches and Marsel McDuffie's 112 tackles, so Jackson Arnold arrives from Auburn to run an offense that lost four of its top pass catchers in Troy Omeire, Daejon Reynolds, JoJo Earle and Bradley combined. Amorion Walker and tight end Keyan Burnett give Arnold new targets, but with only 1,309 yards and 6 touchdowns on his own résumé, the passing game trades a proven volume producer for an unproven arm and a rebuilt receiver room. On defense, Landyn Cleveland, Kyron Chambers and Mark Iheanachor were brought in to replace Jaheem Joseph's 73 tackles and McDuffie's production, and how quickly that group jells will shape whether this defense holds up as well as last year's did.

Jackson Arnold

Anthony Colandrea threw for 3459 yards and 23 touchdowns running this offense, and UNLV handed the job to Jackson Arnold, an Auburn transfer whose own numbers, 1309 yards, 6 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, come nowhere close to that workload. Jai'Den Thomas gives him a proven 1034-yard runner to lean on, but this offense goes only as far as Arnold can produce as a passer in a league he has yet to prove himself in.

Favorites Falling Flat

UNLV won 10 games straight up in 2025 but covered as a home favorite just once in five tries, a gap that had nothing to do with talent and everything to do with margin. The Rebels were sharper when nobody expected them to be, going 4-2 against the spread on the road while going just 2-4 at home, and that split is the real story heading into Dan Mullen's second year. Books have adjusted to last season's breakout, so 2026 will test whether UNLV can win comfortably as the hunted instead of needing road anonymity to cover.