































































































































American Athletic · Tre Lamb, year 2 · 4-8 last season · No. 105 in our FBS ratings
Baylor Hayes returns as the settled answer at quarterback for a roster that ranks 85th nationally in accumulated talent but finished 105th in the power ratings, and with just 41% of production back, Tulsa is betting that Hayes alone can close a gap Tre Lamb's roster hasn't closed on paper.
Can Tre Lamb build continuity when both sides of the ball are almost entirely rebuilt? With offensive returning production at 42.5% and defense even thinner at 39.8%, Baylor Hayes will be throwing to and handing off to a cast that barely resembles last year's 4-8 group, and the defense that finished 1-7 in conference play now has less returning experience than the offense it faces in practice. Expect the growing pains to show up early, since a defense rebuilding from that thin a returning core in the American rarely stabilizes by October.
Tulsa's projected 6-6 climb from a 1-7 conference floor runs through a brutal road stretch at Arkansas (16%), at Tulane (20%) and at Navy (25%), the trio that will decide whether Tre Lamb's second year clears bowl territory. The rest of the slate breaks favorably, with a home stretch against North Texas, Army, Florida Atlantic and Charlotte all sitting near or above a coin flip, giving Tulsa a plausible path to six wins without needing an upset in those three road tests. Split even at Sam Houston (67%) and at Rice (55%) and the margin for error against Arkansas, Tulane and Navy nearly disappears.
Every Premium Issue is included with Major League, or you can buy one on its own. Same treatment as the book you just read: a page for every team, the projections behind it, and the games that decide the season.
Tre Lamb's first year produced a 1-7 league mark and a No. 105 power rating, the kind of results that put a program firmly in rebuild mode rather than one riding momentum into 2026. The case for patience is simple: this is only year two, and a staff rarely gets fairly judged off a single 4-8 sample. The tape from that season, though, says the on-field product has to look different fast, since the league record was the story more than the overall total.
The number that actually explains a 4-8 season sits at 106th in points per scoring opportunity, a Tulsa offense that moved the ball at a middling clip but bled points every time it got close, then handed extra chances back with a turnover margin of minus-8. Baylor Hayes is the established 2026 starter, and fixing that red-zone math and ball security falls on him more than any scheme tweak. The defense was mediocre rather than broken, 90th in yards allowed, but a 121st-ranked havoc rate meant nobody was creating the extra possessions Hayes will need if Tulsa is going to turn stalled drives into points instead of empty trips.
Baylor Hayes moves from punter to the starting quarterback job for 2026, a strange but real transition for a Tulsa offense that finished 106th in points per scoring opportunity and 97th in success rate last season. The passing production Tulsa lost, Kirk Francis's 493 yards and Stephen Kittleman's limited snaps, was never much to replace, and the more meaningful addition is Dexter Williams II, who threw for 787 yards and 6 touchdowns at Kennesaw State and gives Tre Lamb a transfer with actual game tape at the position. With Hayes penciled in as QB1 and Williams and true freshman Kyden Barker behind him, Tulsa's 176 rushing yards per game (48th) and 399 total yards per game (57th) suggest the ground game, not a suddenly potent passing attack, still carries this offense.
Tulsa is replacing its top three rushers from a year ago, and every one of them is gone: Dominic Richardson (1065 yards), Ajay Allen (497) and Braylin Presley (215) all departed, leaving Kelvin Washington's 21 yards as the only returning production on the roster. The answer came entirely through the portal, with Trequan Jones (792 yards, 6 TD at Old Dominion) and DJ McKinney (464 yards, 7 TD at New Mexico) brought in to headline the room, plus Damari Alston and Seth Davis adding more proven carries. This is a full transplant rather than a reload, and with a rushing attack that already ranked 48th in yards per game, Jones and McKinney taking over the workload should keep the ground game as the offense's steadier identity while the passing game sorts itself out.
No returning wideout topped 272 yards last season, so Tulsa went shopping in the portal for proven hands, landing David Wells Jr. from Oregon State (44 catches, 466 yards, 4 TD) and Javon Ross from Bethune-Cookman (50 catches, 603 yards, 3 TD). That duo instantly outproduces the returning group of Grayson Tempest, Micah Tease and Josh Smith, and slots in as the new top targets for a passing game that ranked 71st in yards per game. With Calvin Johnson II and Mekhi Miller gone, Wells and Ross are not depth additions, they are the answer to who actually catches the ball in 2026.
Brody Foley's 36 catches, 521 yards and 7 touchdowns walked out the door, and so did Landen Lucas, leaving Tulsa's tight end room with a combined 3 catches back on campus. Jewlyen Roberts is the only returner with any receiving history at all, and Chris Gacayan II, Jackson Shockley and Luke Tevis all arrive at 2026 without a single logged stat. Grant McAtee comes in from North Central College as a low-profile addition rather than a plug-and-play answer, so an offense that already ranked 106th in points per scoring opportunity is replacing its most productive pass-catching tight end with unproven bodies.
Tulsa's line allowed 24 sacks and helped produce a 40.4% success rate (97th) a year ago, numbers that explain why Tre Lamb went shopping in both the portal and the high school ranks up front. The room actually brings back the bulk of its bodies, with juniors Cam East and Hunter Erb among the most experienced returners, but Lamb still added four interior linemen, Malachi Preciado, Deminio Patterson, Dawson Matthews and Ryley Kester, plus tackle Nick Anciaux, betting that fresh competition fixes what continuity alone did not. With 176 rushing yards per game (48th) already respectable, the real swing factor is whether this deeper, retooled group can cut down the sack total and turn moving the ball into finishing drives, since Tulsa's 3.34 points per scoring opportunity ranked 106th.
Tulsa's line lost virtually all its production up front, with Nahki Johnson, Ty Cooper and Byron Turner Jr. combining for the bulk of last year's sacks and tackles for loss out the door, leaving Hudson Ball's modest 41 tackles as the top returning mark. Tre Lamb rebuilt the edge through the portal, bringing in Thomas Davis from App State (25 tackles, 3 sacks, 5.5 TFL) and Kyran Duhon from Oklahoma State to plug the pass-rush gap that already ranked 85th nationally in sacks. With a run defense that finished 113th against the rush, the real burden falls on newcomers like Carson Dempsey and Jayden Madkins to hold up inside, and until that group proves it can, Tulsa's front looks more patched together than fixed.
Tulsa loses the 128-tackle centerpiece of its front seven in Ray Coney, and Devin Robinson's 50 tackles and 6 TFL make him the only proven answer left on campus. UAB transfer Devin Hightower, who piled up 81 tackles and 3 TFL last season, arrives to plug the void at the other spot, while incoming freshman Raymir Coney joins as a high school signee rather than a ready-made replacement for his departed namesake. With run defense already a problem at 183 yards allowed per game (113th nationally) and havoc rate down at 121st, this group needs Hightower playing early snaps, not developing behind Robinson.
Tulsa's secondary loses Lento Smith Jr.'s 79 tackles but keeps its actual tone-setters, with Zach Williams (73 tackles) and Elijah Green (59 tackles) both back after carrying the back end through a defense that ranked 121st in havoc rate. That number, not the 28.9 points allowed per game, is the real problem to fix, and it falls on Ashton Williams, Dax Collins and NuNu Campbell to turn more of those 397 yards allowed per game into disruptive plays rather than tackles after the catch. The help arrives on the ground: Caldra Williford transfers in from Baylor with 16 tackles and a TFL already on his résumé, while high school signees Keynan Farley, Julian Byrd and Carter Langenderfer add competition behind a defense that still ranked 58th against the pass.
Seth Morgan's 17 of 21 kicking and 78 points walk out the door, and Tulsa answers by importing competition rather than trusting an unproven incumbent: Marlon Hauck arrives from Mississippi State and Owen Carey from Beachside, with returning kicker Evan Guenthner still on the roster but without a game log to lean on. The punting swap looks like a clear upgrade on paper, as Max Tulen's 43.8 yard average from Bethune-Cookman edges what Angus Davies posted a year ago, though incumbent Henry Simon remains in the room too. With long snapper Aidan Fedigan back and Joel Bazinet joining from Oakleaf, the operation behind Tulsa's kicking game is getting rebuilt from the ground up for 2026.
Tulsa gutted its backfield and receiving room this offseason, losing Dominic Richardson's 1,065 rushing yards and Ajay Allen's 497 alongside Brody Foley's 521 receiving yards, and answered by importing bulk rather than a single headliner. Trequan Jones arrives from Old Dominion off a 792-yard season and DJ McKinney adds 464 yards and 7 touchdowns from New Mexico, giving Tulsa a committee that has actually produced elsewhere rather than a name promoted from within. Baylor Hayes runs the offense in 2026, and with Javon Ross (50 catches, 603 yards at Bethune-Cookman) and David Wells Jr. (44 catches, 466 yards at Oregon State) now catching passes, the question is whether that much outside production can gel faster than the 93rd-ranked class suggests it should.
Dominic Richardson's 1065 yards walk out the door, and Tulsa didn't fill that hole with a camp battle, it went to Old Dominion and bought Trequan Jones, who ran for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. Baylor Hayes gives the offense stability at quarterback, but Jones has to approximate Richardson's workload immediately or Tulsa's ground game regresses before Hayes and Grayson Tempest ever get comfortable throwing it.
Tulsa was dead even against the number overall in Tre Lamb's first year, but the split tells the real story: bettors could trust the Golden Hurricane as a home favorite (2-1) and as a road underdog (3-2), yet conference games were a trap at 3-5 against the spread while going 1-7 straight up in the American. That gap between competitive non-league markets and a 1-7 league record defines the number to watch entering year two, whether Lamb's group can turn those league lines from a fade into a wager. A 4-3 mark against the spread after a loss shows this team did not fold after bad weeks, and that resilience matters more than any single result heading into 2026.
15 more sections in the full Tulsa Golden Hurricane preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.
Scores, schedules, rosters and statistics come from public sports data feeds and are for information only. Odds, projections and win probabilities are for entertainment only and are not betting advice. Team names and marks belong to their owners and identify the clubs we cover. © 2026 MainMarket.com. All rights reserved.