Buffalo Bulls 2026 Season Preview

Year Three for Lembo

Buffalo closed 2025 at 5-7 despite going 4-4 inside the Mid-American, the kind of split-decision season that leaves a program's national standing looking rougher than its league record, and the No. 113 power rating reflects that gap. Pete Lembo now moves into year three with a roster that has to turn even conference outings into overall wins, not just league ones. The path forward for this staff is straightforward on paper: stack non-conference results on top of that MAC-level competitiveness, because 4-4 against the league did not translate to a winning season last time.

Buffalo's Buy-Low Bounce

A minus-7 turnover margin buried Buffalo at 5-7 last season, and that kind of number rarely repeats, which is the real reason to expect a jump in 2026 even with only 17% of production returning. The offense still has to prove it can finish drives, since it needed 15.1 yards per point last year against a 14.1 league median and left points on the field far too often, while the defense forced opponents to earn theirs at a break-even 14.6. Jason Wright projects as the 2026 quarterback after rushing for 45 yards and no touchdowns a year ago, and with Pete Lembo now in year three, the turnover luck flipping in Buffalo's favor could be worth more than anything new on the roster.

Ta'Quan Roberson's 2,520 yards and 17 touchdowns walk out the door, and Buffalo replaces that production with an open camp battle led by Jason Wright, who managed just 45 rushing yards and no scores in limited action last year. Wright takes the first-team reps as the front-runner, but Mason Cumbie and Jake Forburger are both in the mix, and neither has a pass attempt on record. That uncertainty lands on an offense that already ranked 109th in success rate and 103rd on third down, so whoever wins the job inherits a unit that needs far more efficiency than 2025 produced.

Al-Jay Henderson's 755 yards and Lamar Sperling's 234 both left with them, and nobody on the returning depth chart sniffed those totals. Terrance Shelton Jr. managed just 244 yards a year ago, with James McNeil Jr. (67) and Messiah Burch (41) trailing well behind, so this becomes a committee patched together rather than a handoff to an heir apparent. A rushing attack that already ranked 97th in yards per game now leans on that trio plus unproven Nino Hill and 3-star Chase Enlow, and there's little in the numbers to suggest the ground game improves before the passing attack does.

Buffalo just lost its top two producers at receiver, Nik McMillan (61 catches, 975 yards) and Victor Snow (62 catches, 815 yards, 8 TD), gutting a passing attack that already ranked 109th in offensive success rate. Jasaiah Gathings, who managed just 410 yards on 36 catches, is now the clear top target, with Chance Morrow and Patrick Clacks III needing to turn modest 2025 workloads into real volume. Three-star Springside Chestnut Hill product Aaron Clark arrives with no proven college competition around him, meaning this room's 2026 identity gets built largely from unproven pieces rather than replaced production.

Buffalo effectively imported this room. None of the returning four (Michael Gelatko, Nick Leonard, Stone Rozak, Clint Walker) carry a catch on file, and the departed group led by Marcus Velez left almost nothing behind either, so the production has to come from outside. Trevor Wilson arrives from Campbell with 22 catches and 193 yards, the only tight end in this group with a real box score, and he projects as the clear starter over freshmen Aiden Howard and TJ Sabatucci. That's a lot to ask of one transfer for an offense that ranked 109th in success rate and struggled badly on third down, but Wilson at least gives Buffalo a proven target the incumbents never provided.

Pete Lembo has to rebuild the trenches almost from scratch, with five departed linemen including Tyler Doty and Henry Tabansi clearing out and a stat line last fall that was already ugly, 133 rushing yards per game and a 38.8% success rate ranking 109th nationally. Gabriel Arena, Thomas Barr, Jackson Bellamy, Paul Clark and Jackson Davenport sit atop the depth chart, but Buffalo layered in five transfers and freshmen, led by Baylor's Joe Crocker and Miami's Nino Francavilla, to compete for jobs up front. This is a group in flux, not a returning strength, and until it proves otherwise the run game and third-down offense (35.8%, 103rd) figure to stay the problem they were in 2025.

Buffalo's front produced 34 sacks and ranked 22nd nationally in that category last year, but the players who got there are gone: Malin White (55 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 4 sacks), Kobe Stewart (43 tackles, 7 TFL) and Devin Morgan (5.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) all departed. What comes back is mostly unproven, Cornell Evans logged just 14 tackles and 1.5 TFL, while Christopher Climes, Charlton Goodell and Mason Naple carry no statistical track record at all. Florida A&M transfer Stantavious Smith arrives with 3 tackles of experience and joins a wave of three-star freshmen in Malachi Ervin, Aiden Anderson, Royce Rogers and William Reed, meaning Buffalo is rebuilding its pass rush from recruiting stars rather than proven college snaps.

Red Murdock's 142 tackles and 13.5 TFL walk out the door along with Mitchell Gonser's 70 stops, gutting a group that helped Buffalo hold opponents to 186 passing yards per game, 23rd nationally. What replaces that production is a blank page: George Hill, DJ Mangan, Jordan Owens, Bradley Ilunga-Bisselele, Mathew Hilty and Drake Saltarelli all return with no prior statistics logged, and the reinforcements arrive not from the portal but from high school in Na'Rod Jarvis, Matthew Heininger and Anwar Witherspoon Jr. Buffalo's defense was already thin at the line of scrimmage, ranking 94th in run-stuff rate, and asking unproven bodies to replace 13.5 tackles for loss worth of disruption is the real swing factor for 2026.

Buffalo's pass defense ranked 23rd nationally in yards allowed per game, and the bulk of that group returns, led by Miles Greer's 74 tackles and 2.5 sacks from the safety spot alongside corner Keontez Bradley. The losses are modest, Marquis Cooper's 30 tackles the only real dent, which means Kobi Blackwell and Oliver Bridges simply pick up more snaps rather than replace a lost starter. Sayre Smothers arrives from The Citadel to add corner depth, but this unit's identity was already set by the coverage numbers, not by what changed this offseason.

Jack Howes made 14 of 17 field goals and Dylan Drennan averaged 44.8 yards a punt last season, and both are gone, leaving Buffalo to pick a placekicker from a group of three with zero recorded attempts between Oliver Hautanen, Zach McGowan and Blake Sholder. Andrew VanSlyke arrives from James Madison to compete with incumbents Evan Pfeifer and Ethan Stumpf at punter, another spot with no returning production to lean on. Georgia Tech transfer Joseph Stoever steps in at long snapper for departed Carson Selee and Andrew Schnackenberg, meaning every specialist job Pete Lembo fills in 2026 will be built from scratch rather than handed to a proven college kicker or punter.

Rebuilding Almost Everywhere

Buffalo's turnover margin sat at minus-7 over 12 games, the kind of number that tends to swing back the other way, and that alone argues the 5-7 mark undersold this team. But the losses are real: Ta'Quan Roberson, Nik McMillan and Victor Snow are all gone from the passing game, Al-Jay Henderson took his 755 rushing yards with him, and the front seven loses Red Murdock's 142 tackles and 13.5 TFL. Jason Wright is projected to run the offense after rushing for 45 yards a year ago, while transfers like Trevor Wilson and Stantavious Smith arrive as one-year contributors rather than proven stars, so the story of 2026 is a defense and offense both leaning on inefficient, hard-earned points while Pete Lembo bets the turnover luck evens out.

Wright's Turnover-Prone Offense

Everything for Buffalo funnels through Jason Wright, projected to take over at quarterback after throwing for essentially nothing on the ground last year (45 yards, 0 TD) and never truly airing it out as Ta'Quan Roberson's backup. He inherits an offense that already needed 15.1 yards per point scored against a 14.1 league median, meaning it left points on the field even before losing its leading passer, and a defense that only bent (14.6 yards/pt, matching the median) rather than broke. If Wright can turn Jasaiah Gathings (36 catches, 410 yards) and new tight end Trevor Wilson into real scoring efficiency instead of empty yardage, the minus-7 turnover margin that sank Buffalo in 2025 has real room to swing back in their favor.

Bad Home Bets

Buffalo's number tells a split story: as a road underdog under Pete Lembo, the Bulls covered 67% of the time, but installed as home favorites they covered just once in four tries. That home letdown compounded in league games, where Buffalo went 2-6 against the spread despite a 4-4 straight-up conference mark, meaning the Bulls were consistently overpriced by bettors on their own field. Until that home-favorite number flips, backing Buffalo as the chalk in Amherst is the losing side of the ledger.