2026 FBS Preview

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Western Michigan Broncos 2026 Season Preview

Mid-American · Lance Taylor, year 4 · 10-4 last season · No. 82 in our FBS ratings

Taylor's Defense Outkicks the Talent

Lance Taylor has built a program that ranks 82nd in power rating and 105th in roster talent nationally yet still went 10-4 last fall, and that gap only widens the case that his defense, which held opponents to 17.4 points per game, is the real engine of this roster heading into 2026.

A Defense Being Rebuilt From Scratch

Can a defense that returns just 34.5% of its production hold up while Broc Lowry and an offense bringing back 73.4% of its production carry the load? The bigger issue is that last year's 10-4 mark flattered this program across the board, from the yardage margin in conference play to the turnover luck to the close-game record, so the defensive turnover alone does not explain why 2026 is set up to be a tougher climb. Expect the offense with Lowry at the controls to stay steady while a nearly overhauled defense absorbs the regression the model already sees coming.

Taylor's MAC Gauntlet

The MAC slate is loaded with should-win games against Kent State, Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green, but Lance Taylor's fourth season gets defined by three specific tests: the trip to Michigan, a home date with Boise State, and a road trip to Toledo where Western Michigan sits as an underdog. A 119th-ranked schedule otherwise sets up a path to another bowl, projected at 8-4, but going 1-2 or 2-1 in that stretch is what separates a repeat of last year's 10-4 conference run from a step back. Toledo on the road at 41% is the game inside the MAC that actually decides whether this team is contending or just bowling.

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Ten wins papered over a team that survived on turnover luck and close-game finishes that rarely repeat, and the model's projected 8-4 mark for 2026 reads like the correction, not a letdown. Broc Lowry is the projected starter running an offense that scored efficiently in 2025 but is unlikely to be that sharp again, while a defense that made opponents earn every point has more staying power. Expect the record to settle back toward the field, with Western Michigan still a projected league contender but no longer the outlier its 2025 finish suggested.

Lance Taylor's Mirage Season

Lance Taylor's Broncos won the Mid-American title and rolled Kennesaw State in the bowl, but the underlying math says the 10-4 record oversold this group. A 3-1 mark in one-score games and a plus turnover margin were the kind of breaks that rarely repeat, and in conference play the win rate ran well ahead of what the yardage margin against those foes actually supported. The offense also scored more efficiently than league median, another line unlikely to hold, so 2026 reads less like a team taking the next step and more like one due to come back to the field.

Lowry's Ceiling Problem

Broc Lowry is back after throwing for 1,803 yards with 9 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions, and the run game around him stays loaded given a rushing attack that ranked 16th nationally in yards per game. But 2026 has to fix what the ball through the air could not solve last year, an offense that ranked 130th in passing yards per game and 136th in explosiveness, the kind of numbers that cap a team even when the defense is elite. That defense, which held opponents to 17.4 points per game (9th nationally) behind 43 sacks, bought Western Michigan a 10-4 season despite the offense stalling out at 3.35 points per scoring opportunity, and it will have to do the heavy lifting again unless Lowry turns that efficient turnover margin into more explosive plays.

Broc Lowry threw for 1803 yards and 9 touchdowns last season, and the job stays his in an offense that ran far better than it threw, ranking 16th in rushing yards per game but 130th in passing. That gap is the real story for 2026, since a run-heavy attack got Western Michigan to a Mid-American title, but 139 yards a game through the air and 105th in points per scoring opportunity leaves little margin if Lowry does not push the ball downfield more consistently. Lance Taylor added high school signee Jaxson Dosh and Illinois transfer Trey Petty behind him, depth moves rather than a threat to Lowry's job, while departed passer Brady Jones (136 yards, 3 INT) leaves no real competition for the reps Lowry already owns.

Jalen Buckley is the story here, a 1003-yard, 9-touchdown workhorse who returns to anchor a ground game that ranked 16th nationally in rushing yards per game despite an offense that stalled through the air (130th in passing yards per game). The bigger swing is a lopsided passing attack forcing the run to carry the offense again, and with Devin Miles gone, Ofa Mataele's 252 yards give Lance Taylor a proven complement behind Buckley rather than an unknown. Arkansas transfer AJ Green arrives with modest production so far, but this room's success in 2026 still runs through how much defenses have to load up against Buckley.

Western Michigan's leading returning target caught 27 balls for 372 yards, which tells the real story: this passing game was already thin before Talique Williams (35 catches, 478 yards) and Christian Leary left. Baylin Brooks and Aveion Chenault are the only proven hands back, and a group of three-star freshmen (Harper Hughes, Angelo Chapman, Philip Johnson, Elijah Lucas) plus South Carolina transfer Emazon Littlejohn arrive with zero college production to fill the gap. A rushing attack that ranked 16th nationally masked a passing offense that finished 130th in yards per game, and until this rebuilt receiver room proves otherwise, that same run-heavy formula looks like the plan again in 2026.

Western Michigan's tight end room loses its top three pass catchers from a year ago, including Blake Bosma's 27 catches and Michael Brescia's two touchdowns, leaving Cade Conley (8 catches, 55 yards) as the only proven receiving option at the position. That matters for an offense that already ranked 130th in passing yards per game, and Conley's modest numbers suggest the position will lean on blocking more than the ball being thrown his way. New Mexico State transfer Adam Parks arrives with just 1 catch for 7 yards, so the more likely path is Western Michigan riding its 16th-ranked rushing attack while the tight ends work in a support role rather than as difference-makers through the air.

Western Michigan ran for 205 yards a game last season but managed only 139 through the air and a 5.20 mark per snap, and the fixes up front lean heavily on continuity. Jack Parker, Gavin Dabo and Conor Kenzinger headline a group where most of the room comes back, giving Lance Taylor a line that should keep grinding out rushing lanes even after losing five contributors including Raheem Anderson II and Trevor Shaw. The bigger question is whether that push in the run game finally drags the passing production out of the bottom tier nationally, and Michigan transfer Ben Roebuck arrives to add interior depth to a group that already knows how to move people off the ball.

The production that fueled a 10-win season and 43 sacks (4th nationally) is largely gone, with Mustafi Al-Garawi, Kershawn Fisher and Marcel Tyler combining to walk out the door as the top tacklers up front. What's left is a group of role players, not stars, led by Dakari Frazier and Will Gerig, who managed 10 and 9 tackles respectively last fall, plus three-star North Carolina transfer Austin Alexander stepping in at EDGE off just 3 tackles. Lance Taylor is patching a front that ranked 4th in sacks with volume rather than proven difference-makers, and with the run defense already 96th in stuff rate, this line looks built to hold the line rather than wreck backfields in 2026.

Western Michigan's front seven loses its two most productive tacklers, James Camden (85 tackles, 4 sacks, 5 TFL) and Sefa Saipaia Jr. (77 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL), and nobody left on the roster comes close to replacing that volume. Domanick Moon (23 tackles) and Dillon Moore (19 tackles, 2 TFL) are the top returning tallies, a steep drop that leaves real snaps up for grabs. Ball State transfer DeJuan Echoles Jr. and Tennessee transfer Brenden Anes arrive to compete for that void, while three-star signee Breck Mallory joins straight out of high school at Lawrence North, but the group inherits a defense that finished 9th in points allowed per game largely on the strength of the players now gone.

Western Michigan's back end stays largely intact after a defense that ranked 9th nationally in points allowed per game, and that continuity is the story. Jarvarius Sims (61 tackles) and Joshua Franklin (53 tackles, 5.5 TFL) anchor the corner spots, while Micah Davis and Joey Pope return at safety to soften the loss of Tate Hallock's 67 tackles. The reinforcements are modest by design, with VMI transfer Kouri Crump and three-star safety Tahj Owens added as depth rather than replacements, so this group's ceiling in 2026 rides on Sims and Franklin taking on bigger roles in coverage.

Palmer Domschke is the projected placekicker again after hitting 13 of 19 field goals with a 50-yarder last season, giving Western Michigan a proven leg even as Loyola Academy product Zak Zeman arrives as a long-term option. The bigger swing factor is Ryan Millmore, who punted 57 times at a 42.4-yard clip and now handles the job alone with Anthony Beacom gone. Snap duties stay steady with RJ Todd and Will Peterson back, while Virginia Tech transfer Drew Doyle adds depth at long snapper.

Lowry Inherits a Gutted Front Seven

A 112th-ranked class and a modest 14-for-13 portal haul mean little when the two names that mattered most on defense, Nadame Tucker (14.5 sacks) and James Camden (85 tackles, 4 sacks), are both gone, along with Sefa Saipaia Jr.'s 77 tackles. That leaves Broc Lowry, back after throwing for 1803 yards and 9 touchdowns, as the steadying force for a Western Michigan attack that has to outscore some uncomfortable defensive math while Lance Taylor's staff patches the front with unproven names like Austin Alexander and Brenden Anes. The offense also loses its top skill pieces in Talique Williams (478 yards) and Devin Miles (425 rushing yards, 3 TD), so Lowry is not just holding the job, he is the whole plan.

Jalen Buckley's Workload

Broc Lowry is settled at quarterback, but Talique Williams' departure strips out the passing game's top target, which means Jalen Buckley has to be the offense rather than a complement to it. He ran for 1003 yards and 9 touchdowns last season behind a Lowry-led attack that could still throw it around; with Arkansas import AJ Green unproven at this level, Buckley absorbing an even heavier share is what keeps Western Michigan's offense functional in 2026.

Bronco Bettors Cash In

Western Michigan didn't just win in 2025, it printed money, covering at a 77% clip and going 10-3-1 against the spread while running up a 7-1 mark straight up in conference play. Home was the sweet spot, with Lance Taylor's club covering 83% of the time at home and going 3-1 against the number as a home favorite. The one soft spot bettors should note is on the road as underdogs, where the Broncos covered just once in three tries, a gap worth watching if 2026 puts them back in that spot against MAC favorites.