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Toledo Rockets 2026 Season Preview

Mid-American · Mike Jacobs, year 1 · 8-5 last season · No. 79 in our FBS ratings

Almost Everyone New

Mike Jacobs inherits a defense that ranked 4th nationally in scoring a year ago but must rebuild it from just 9% returning production, so John Alan Richter running the offense becomes the steadiest thread holding a nearly wholesale roster turnover together.

Richter's Supporting Cast

Can John Alan Richter win games with almost nobody around him who did it in 2025? Toledo returns just 8.3% of its offensive production, meaning the receivers, backs, and blockers Richter leans on are almost entirely unproven together. That gap points to a rocky start while the pieces gel, since it takes more than one steady arm to cover for a whole unit learning on the fly.

Jacobs' Three Real Tests

Mike Jacobs inherits a MAC contender with a schedule ranked 131st in difficulty, and the projected 8-4 mark reflects just how top-heavy this slate is. The season comes down to three games: a trip to Michigan State (36% win), San Diego State at home (45%), and a road date at Ohio (56%), the only real question marks on a card otherwise stacked with should-win spots like Central Connecticut, Massachusetts and Bowling Green. Toledo does not need to sweep those three to validate a strong debut for Jacobs, but stealing even one of them turns 8-4 into something better.

Richter's Floor Is Higher

Toledo went 0-3 in one-score games and still finished 8-5, and the yardage margin in conference play says the Rockets should have won more than the 75.0% they did, not less. John Alan Richter returns to run an offense that scored efficiently on 13.5 yards per point, and under new coach Mike Jacobs the projected 8-4 mark reads like a floor rather than a ceiling. With a schedule ranked 131st and a Mid-American field picked to finish behind them, the path to matching or beating that projection runs through correcting close-game luck that was actually working against them.

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Trust the Process, Not the Score

Mike Jacobs takes over a program whose 8-5 mark and 6-2 conference finish look sturdier than the underlying numbers back up. Toledo went 0-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer and posted a plus-6 turnover margin over 13 games, both signs the record flattered a team that also needed fewer yards per point on offense than the league median while its defense bent without breaking. Against league opponents, though, Toledo's yardage margin implied a win rate well above what it actually posted in conference play, so Jacobs inherits a roster that outperformed its yards on some days and underachieved its own numbers on others, a genuine mixed bag for a first-year staff to sort out.

Richter Inherits a Loaded Defense

Toledo's defense was elite in 2025, finishing 2nd in yards allowed per game and 4th in points allowed, and none of that unit's identity changes the calculus for John Alan Richter, who takes over an offense that ranked a modest 76th in explosiveness. New coach Mike Jacobs does not need a transformation on offense, just competence, because a defense that generated 92 tackles for loss and a 20.2% havoc rate can mask plenty of mistakes. If Richter can push that 40.2% third-down rate into respectable territory, Toledo's ceiling gets a lot higher than last year's 8-5 mark, since the defense is already built to carry a middling attack to a winning record.

Tucker Gleason's 2,515 yards and 21 touchdowns walk out the door, but Toledo hands the offense to John Alan Richter, who already has 153 yards and 3 touchdowns on his ledger from last season. Mike Jacobs takes over an attack that ranked 27th nationally in yards per play and allowed just 17 sacks, giving Richter a clean pocket and an established run game to lean on rather than a rebuild from scratch. Jake DeHaan and Walter Moses provide experienced depth behind him, while Lenoir Rhyne transfer Khamoni Robinson adds a longer-term piece to the room.

Toledo is replacing its entire backfield production, since Chip Trayanum's 1015 yards and Kenji Christian's 528 both walked out the door, and none of the returning backs, Connor Walendzak, Mike Drennen II or Dane Nauman, topped 99 yards last year. The answer arrives via the portal, with CJ Miller importing 953 yards and 14 touchdowns from Mercer to become the presumptive lead back, while Penn State transfer Corey Smith brings a pass-catching element off his 14 catches for 237 yards. That is a near-total overhaul of the room, and it lands behind a line that allowed just 17 sacks, giving Miller a real chance to keep this rushing attack near its 178 yards per game clip under new coach Mike Jacobs.

Toledo's leading returning wideout, Terrell Crosby Jr., caught just 16 passes for 194 yards, a sign of how thoroughly the room turned over after Junior Vandeross III departed with 82 catches and 1,008 yards. The rebuild leans on the portal rather than incumbents: Adjatay Dabbs arrives from Mercer off an 856-yard, 8-touchdown season, and Rico Bond joins from Lindenwood having caught 60 passes for 694 yards, giving new coach Mike Jacobs two proven every-down targets to plug into an offense that ranked 27th nationally in yards per play. With Bryson Hammer, Tashi Braceful and Cooper Rusk combined for only a handful of catches, Dabbs and Bond aren't complementary pieces, they're the offense's new top options.

Jacob Petersen's 25 catches walked out the door, and Toledo rebuilt this room almost entirely through the portal rather than handing it to an incumbent. Ethan Malafa arrives from Butler with modest but real production (6 catches, 66 yards, a touchdown), while Jake Newell (Akron) and Tucker Kelleher (BYU) bring blue-collar 3-star pedigree without a catch between them on record. Sam Lee is the only returning tight end with any receiving stats, just 2 catches for 40 yards, which means new coach Mike Jacobs is betting on Malafa to be the steadying veteran presence in a group that otherwise has to prove itself from scratch.

Mike Jacobs inherits an offensive line that allowed just 17 sacks and pushed Toledo to 6.21 yards per play last season, but nine linemen from that group are gone and the room now leans on class seniority rather than proven starting spots. Jake Grimm, Jonathan Harder, Brian Keane, Matt Hofer, Jacob Kropchak and Christian Medlock all return, yet none carry a defined starting track record, and juniors Ethan Spoth and senior Ibrahim Traore give Jacobs his most experienced bodies to build around. Three-star tackles Jake Palucki, Vincenzo Pizzo and Nick Thomas arrive alongside interior additions Preston Dazey and Ahmad Carwise, and this unit reads as a genuine rebuild rather than a strength carried over from 2025.

Toledo's front produced 37 sacks and ranked 4th nationally in points allowed a year ago, but the two players who made it go, Martez Poynter (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 10 TFL) and Malachi Davis (35 tackles, 5.5 sacks), are both gone, along with Doran Ray Jr. and Louce Julien. What's left is Travion Ford with 5 tackles and a group of unproven names like Jordin Farrow and Cameron Gwinn, so new coach Mike Jacobs is leaning on the portal to fill the gap, bringing in UAB edge Ezra Odinjor (28 tackles, 3 TFL) and Mercer's Andrew Zock. That's a lot of production to replace with two mid-tier transfers and zero proven returning pass rushers, and this line looks built to take a step back before it takes another forward.

Toledo's linebacker room got gutted, not tweaked. K'Von Sherman (93 tackles, 14.5 TFL) and Chris D'Appolonia (59 tackles) are gone, and the only proven returning piece is Langston Long, who managed just 33 tackles and 4.5 TFL as a complementary piece last year, not a lead run-stopper. Mike Jacobs is filling the gap with volume over pedigree, five incoming three-star linebackers led by Kari Jackson out of Penn State, none of whom have logged a snap. A defense that ranked 2nd in yards allowed per game last season is betting that scheme and depth up front can mask a linebacker corps rebuilding almost entirely from scratch.

Toledo's secondary allowed just 156 passing yards per game a year ago, but the two corners who anchored that group, Andre Fuller and Nasir Bowers, along with leading tackler Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, are all gone. The rebuild leans on transfers Armorion Smith from Michigan State, who racked up 36 tackles a season ago, and a pair of Mercer corners in KJ Thomas and Donovan Watkins, while Nicholas Thompson (24 tackles) is the lone returning safety with real production. That is a lot of new faces replacing 77 tackles worth of experience at safety alone, and this unit will look different in coverage even if the scheme keeps forcing the same tackles-for-loss numbers up front.

Toledo gutted its specialists room and rebuilt it almost entirely out of Mercer's pipeline. Reice Griffith arrives having gone 14 of 16 with a 51-yard long and 96 points, a clear upgrade over departed kicker Dylan Cunanan's 8-of-10 mark, and he brings Mercer teammates Max Allen (long snapper) and Markus Meincke (punter) with him to fill jobs vacated by Matthew Bailey and James Roe. Emilio Duran stays on as the incumbent punter off a 40.6-yard average, but new coach Mike Jacobs is otherwise betting on a transfer trio he coached up together rather than in-house options like Anthony Ruggles, who has yet to attempt a field goal.

A New Offense, Ground-Up

Toledo replaces almost its entire offensive engine, with Tucker Gleason's 2,515 yards, Chip Trayanum's 1,015 rushing yards and Junior Vandeross III's 82 catches all gone, and hands the keys to John Alan Richter, whose 153 yards and 3 touchdowns are the only returning quarterback production on the roster. Mike Jacobs leans on the portal to rebuild around him, importing CJ Miller (953 yards, 14 TD at Mercer) and Adjatay Dabbs (856 yards, 8 TD) to restock the skill spots practically from scratch. With a recruiting class ranked 121st, this roster overhaul through the portal, not high school talent, determines whether Toledo's offense finds its footing in 2026.

CJ Miller

Toledo handed the backfield to CJ Miller, who rushed for 953 yards and 14 touchdowns at Mercer, and his ability to punch above that level of competition is the swing factor for a new staff breaking in John Alan Richter at quarterback. With Richter carrying just 153 passing yards into the job and Tucker Gleason's 2515 yards gone, Miller has to be the offense's engine rather than a complement, and Connor Walendzak's modest 99 yards behind him mean there is no proven fallback if he does not hit.

Jacobs Inherits a Home Cash Cow

Toledo went 6-0 straight up at home last season and covered 83% of the time as a home favorite, a trend Mike Jacobs takes over rather than builds from scratch. The road numbers tell a different story, just 2-4 straight up and a 50% cover rate away from the Glass Bowl, so bettors backing this team need to know the split is real. Toledo also covered every time out following a loss, 4-0, suggesting a program that responds well under Jacobs once things go sideways.