Youngstown State Penguins 2026 Season Preview

Phillips Rides a Lucky Ledger

The record and the No. 13 power rating say Youngstown State arrived, but the underlying numbers tell Doug Phillips to expect a correction. A turnover margin of +11 over 13 games and a 3-2 mark in one-score contests are the kind of edges that rarely repeat, and both flatter the 8-5 finish more than they explain it. Against league competition the yardage margin actually pointed to a stronger winning percentage than the team produced, so the give-back likely comes from the lucky bounces, not from an offense or defense that was overrated to begin with.

Brungard's Ceiling, No Cushion

Beau Brungard, back after throwing for 3,230 yards and 26 touchdowns, gives Youngstown State an offense that ranks 5th in total yards per game and 3rd in yards per play, and that unit is real. What is not real is the margin that got them to 8-5: a plus-11 turnover margin and a 3-2 mark in one-score games are the kind of things that rarely repeat, and their conference win rate actually ran ahead of what their yardage margin in those games would predict. Doug Phillips has a passing attack that can carry this team, but a defense allowing 31.0 points per game means 2026 will be decided by whether Brungard can outscore people without the puddle of turnovers and close-game breaks behind him.

Beau Brungard is the established starter behind an offense that hummed at 6.92 yards per play, third nationally, and averaged 36.6 points a game a year ago. That efficiency didn't come from chunk plays, the offense ranked just 67th in explosiveness, so Brungard's job is running Doug Phillips' system on schedule rather than hunting home runs, and the 47.5% third-down rate says there's room to sharpen that. Medina's Cason Diiulio and Centerville's Shane Cole arrive with no college stats yet, developmental pieces behind a proven starter rather than any threat to the job.

Ta'John Royster arrives from East with no college stat line yet, stepping into a backfield that loses both its rushing and receiving pieces from a year ago in Tahir Mills (46 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Ethan Wright (24 catches, 249 yards, 2 TD). That production is modest on paper, which matters less than the machine around it: this offense ran 6.92 yards per play (3rd nationally) and posted a 48.9% success rate (6th) while ranking just 12th in rushing yards per game at 204. Royster does not need to be a workhorse to keep that engine humming, he needs to hit the same efficient reads that made this ground game a complement to an explosive scheme rather than its centerpiece.

Youngstown State's passing game loses its entire top end: Max Tomczak's 70 catches for 1,021 yards and 8 scores, plus Ky Wilson's 64 grabs for 652 yards, both walk out the door after an offense that ranked 3rd nationally in yards per play. Doug Phillips turns to the portal to answer that, bringing in Grand Valley State's Lynn Wyche-El and Ohio State's Dorian Williams alongside a trio of Ohio high school signees. That group inherits a scheme that moved the ball at 460 yards a game, but its 67th-ranked explosiveness mark means the new receivers need to manufacture more big plays than last year's group did, not just replace the volume.

Austin Bray's 8 catches and 2 touchdowns are gone from the tight end room, but that production barely moved the needle for an offense that ranked 3rd nationally in yards per play and 5th in total yards a season ago. This attack leaned on its ground game and quick-strike passing rather than the tight end as a focal point, so replacing Bray's modest numbers matters less than Doug Phillips keeping the same 6.92 yards per play efficiency intact behind whoever settles in at the position. With the passing game only 17th in yards per game, the tight end spot looks more like a complementary blocking and chain-moving role than a place this offense needs a breakout name to keep scoring at an 8th-ranked clip.

This line produced 6.92 yards per play, third nationally, and cleared room for 204 rushing yards a game behind an offense that scored 36.6 points per contest. Nate Williams is gone from that group, but Doug Phillips brought in Brody Rummler from Stoney Creek and Bo Schaefer from Upper Arlington to fortify the interior. The bigger swing factor is explosiveness, a modest 1.27 mark that ranked just 67th, and whether the rebuilt interior can turn that elite per-play efficiency into more chunk gains rather than steady, unspectacular ones.

Youngstown State's front let the run go reasonably well last year (141 yards allowed per game, 45th nationally) but got shredded through the air behind it, part of a pass defense that finished 109th in yards allowed per game. Six defensive linemen are out the door, headlined by Collin Vaughn and Michael Voitus, so Doug Phillips is turning to Conlan Greene, a Temple transfer who posted 7 tackles and half a sack in 2025, to add rotation pieces up front. The bigger swing move is at the edge, where Will Gorman and AJ Snyder arrive with no prior college numbers to lean on, meaning Youngstown State's pass rush production for 2026 is largely unwritten rather than inherited.

Youngstown State's defense bled yardage through the air last season, ranking 109th in passing yards allowed per game, and the linebacker corps now has to replace Preston Zandier and Chris Sammarone up front against the run, where the unit actually held up at 45th in rushing yards allowed. Danny Inglis arrives from Iowa State to help fill that void, though his 1 tackle from 2025 came in a backup role rather than as a proven answer. The bigger swing factor is whether Doug Phillips' front seven can tighten the 6.12 yards per play allowed mark, because a defense that let 44.1% of opponent snaps stay on schedule cannot keep bailing out a passing game that gave up 252 yards a night.

A passing defense that gave up 252 yards a game through the air, 109th nationally, was the soft spot in an otherwise solid 8-5 season, and Youngstown State went to the portal to patch it. Cam Smith arrives from Iowa State, where he posted 9 tackles and 0.5 sacks last season, joining a high school haul at safety in Bray Adams, Bryant Holland-Snowden and Jack Tarkowski while Brandon Williams comes in at cornerback. With 9 defensive backs gone from a group that also allowed 6.12 yards per play, Doug Phillips is betting Smith's experience at a Power Four program translates faster than the newcomers around him can develop.

Doug Phillips loses the entire specialist operation at once. Brendon Kilpatrick averaged 45.4 yards on 37 punts, Jonathan Schmidt never attempted a field goal, and long snapper Byron Floyd's departure leaves no returning statistical anchor across the punt, place-kick or snap jobs. With none of last year's specialists back on the depth chart, Youngstown State heads into 2026 needing a new punter and kicker to emerge from a group with no established track record at Youngstown State.

Beau Brungard's receiving corps

Beau Brungard threw for 3230 yards and 26 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions last season, so Youngstown State's offense runs through him again in 2026 without question. The swing factor is who catches his throws now that Max Tomczak's 70 catches, 1021 yards and 8 touchdowns are off the roster, and with a 207-ranked recruiting class and a modest transfer haul, that production has to come from whoever steps into that vacated role rather than a big name walking in the door. If Brungard finds a receiver who can approximate Tomczak's workload, the passing game holds.

Live Underdog, Reliable Cover

Youngstown State's book is defined by what happens when nobody expects them to win. As a road underdog, Doug Phillips' team covered 75% of the time (3-1) last season, and against ranked opponents it covered four of six while actually winning just twice outright, evidence this team plays every snap close regardless of the name on the other sideline. That profile made them a live bet even in losses, and with the conference slate producing a 5-3 ATS mark, bettors leaning on Youngstown State as the scrappier side in tight spots got paid far more often than they got burned.