VMI Keydets 2026 Season Preview

A season with no cover

Ashley Ingram's staff has no numbers to hide behind after going 1-11 and 0-8 in league play, and the power rating (No. 118) confirms the record was not a fluke of schedule or bounces. There is no returning-production stat or recruiting rank on this card that explains away an eight-game conference losing streak. For 2026, the only story that matters is whether VMI can find a single league win, because the floor has already been tested and held nothing back.

Shannon's Arm, No Shield

Collin Shannon comes back after throwing for 1,982 yards and 13 touchdowns, and his numbers explain why VMI's offense actually flashes explosiveness (15th nationally in that measure) even while ranking 123rd in third-down conversion and success rate. The problem was never really Shannon, it was everything around him, a run game stuck at 92 yards a game and a line that let the offense stay on schedule barely a third of the time. With Shannon back as the settled starter, 2026 hinges less on finding a passer and more on whether VMI can finally protect enough leads to matter, since the defense gave back 37.6 points a game a year ago.

Collin Shannon's 1,982 yards and 13 touchdowns were the rare bright spot in a VMI offense that ranked 123rd in third down rate and 123rd in success rate, and he heads into 2026 as the clear returning starter rather than a name in a competition. The gap between his individual production and the offense's ugly per-play numbers, VMI ran 4.76 yards per play, is the actual story: Shannon can move the ball through the air but the surrounding rushing attack managed only 92 yards per game, leaving him little margin. Nana Utsey and Chandler Wilson return with limited action behind him, but the 2026 offense goes as far as Shannon's arm can drag it.

Leo Boehling's 534 yards were the lone bright spot in a rushing attack that finished 118th in yards per game, and he heads into 2026 as the clear focal point behind Aslin Shipe, who chipped in 270 yards of his own. The bigger issue was never explosiveness, VMI's offense actually ranked 15th nationally in that measure, but a 27.4% third-down rate and 31.1% success rate that sat at 123rd show how little the ground game set up easy yards. Boehling and Shipe combined for the bulk of the backfield's output last year, and until Ashley Ingram's line creates more manageable downs, this room's ceiling is capped no matter how the touches shake out between them and Luke Schalow.

Malik McNeely is the only proven target left after Owen Sweeney and Noah Grevious combined for a huge chunk of last year's production, and his 331 yards on 24 catches now have to anchor a passing game that still managed 200 yards per game through the air despite an offense that ranked 123rd in success rate. Julio Carrecter and Traveion Slaughter each flashed big-play ability on tiny sample sizes, 90 yards on four catches and 87 on three, and VMI's explosiveness mark of 1.39, good for 15th nationally, hints those chunk plays can carry over if quarterback play cooperates. Destin Moore, Halim Hardnett and Ryan Beckman round out a group that has to turn efficiency into volume, because a 27.4% third-down rate leaves little room for anything but explosive throws to McNeely and company.

Cade Cox's 10 catches for 62 yards top the returning tight end production, with Nathan Lhotsky (5 catches, 44 yards) also back after the group lost Morgan McPhaul, whose 15 catches and lone touchdown were the room's most productive line last fall. That gap matters for an offense that ranked 123rd in success rate and 117th in points per game, since VMI's passing attack finished a respectable 73rd nationally and needs Cox or JC Beverly and Dylan Friedman, both unproven but part of a deeper returning group, to give it a reliable underneath target. With Ashley Ingram trying to find explosive plays behind an offense that ranked 15th nationally in explosiveness, the tight ends stepping into bigger receiving roles could decide whether that big-play trait finally shows up on the scoreboard.

Ashley Ingram's offense managed just 92 rushing yards per game and converted a mere 31.1% of snaps into successful plays a year ago, numbers that trace straight back to a line now without William Dixon, Britin Witt and Aiden Jones up front. The eye-popping 1.39 explosiveness mark, 15th nationally, shows this group could spring chunk plays when it worked, but a 27.4% third-down rate says those moments were too rare to sustain drives. Whoever fills those three vacated spots inherits a group that has to find a push in the run game before the passing numbers, a respectable 200 yards per game, mean much in 2026.

Ashley Ingram's front gave up 6.98 yards per play a year ago, a number that had opponents staying on schedule on more than half their snaps and racking up 222 rushing yards a game, and that collapse up front is the root of VMI's 486 yards allowed per contest. John Covert's departure removes a name from that group, but the bigger problem was never one player, it was a line that could not get off blocks or slow anyone on the ground. Fixing the run fits before it fixes the scoreboard, since a defense bleeding 37.6 points a game has no margin left to find on the back end.

Ashley Ingram watched a defense bleed 486 yards a game last season, 123rd nationally, with the rushing lanes (222 yards allowed, 117th) wide open in front of the linebackers. Stephen Dean III, Tyrel Dobson and Bret McClung are all gone from that group, and the tackling issues were never really about one name, it was a defense that let opponents stay on schedule 45.9% of the time, 105th in the country. Fixing the run fits and the missed-tackle rate up front matters more for 2026 than who replaces production that barely showed up on the stat sheet to begin with.

Opposing quarterbacks carved up this secondary for 265 yards a game through the air last fall, a number that sits alongside a defense giving up 486 total yards and 6.98 per play, both marks in the 117-123 range nationally. Kouri Crump and Joe Comello are both gone from that back end, taking whatever open-field tackling stability they provided with them. Ashley Ingram is left leaning on an experienced secondary to tighten those coverage numbers, but until VMI stops letting opponents stay on schedule at a 45.9% clip, the passing yardage figure is unlikely to move much in 2026.

Ben Shrewsbury made just half his field goals, connecting on 5 of 10 with a long of 52 and 30 points, and he still projects as the incumbent leg over Jack Joyce, who hit 3 of 5 with a long of 31 and 15 points. That kind of accuracy on a 1-11 team that went 0-8 in conference explains why close games slipped away, and neither returning snapper, Austin Fletcher or Nathan Payne, changes that math. Zach Bowers and William Lees give Ashley Ingram other leg options, but until Shrewsbury or Joyce tightens up inside makeable range, VMI's margin problem stays where it was.

Collin Shannon's Targets

Noah Grevious took 52 catches and 731 yards out the door with him, leaving Collin Shannon to rebuild his passing game around Malik McNeely, who caught just 24 balls for 331 yards a year ago. VMI added zero players through the portal to fill that gap, so Shannon's 13 touchdown throws in 2025 mean little if McNeely cannot suddenly become a featured target rather than a complementary one. With Leo Boehling drawing extra attention on the ground off his 534 rushing yards, McNeely's jump determines whether Shannon's arm has anywhere left to go.

Ashley Ingram's Conference Cover Split

VMI never won a game straight up in Southern Conference play, going 0-8, yet bettors who backed the Keydets anyway walked away at 4-4 against the number. That gap is the whole story of Ashley Ingram's spread profile: a roster that could not win is one that sportsbooks still had to respect on the number, especially at home where VMI covered 50% despite a 1-4 record on the field. The one spot to avoid is anything involving a ranked opponent, where VMI is 0-1 against the spread and got run off the field to match.