Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 2026 Season Preview

Regression Watch

Brian Wright's 7-5 season leaned on things that rarely repeat twice: a plus-4 turnover margin and a 2-1 mark in one-score games both point to a Northern Arizona team that caught breaks more than it dominated. Against league opponents the yardage margin actually implied a stronger winning rate than the Lumberjacks posted, which cuts against any easy "they were better than their record" read. Expect the 2026 win total to look more like a true talent level than last year's ledger did.

Pennington's Show Now

Ty Pennington's 2705 yards and 16 touchdowns already made him the engine of a passing attack that ranked 21st nationally, and with the job settled entering 2026, Northern Arizona's offense should keep humming even as the roster around him churns through the portal cycle. The bigger issue is what happens without the ball in his hands: a defense that allowed 31.3 points and 6.22 yards per play, both outside the top 80 nationally, has to find takeaways to match last year's plus-4 turnover margin, because Pennington's efficiency can only cover for so many long touchdown drives allowed. The formula for 7-5 was score enough through the air to outrun a leaky defense, and that math only holds if the pass game carries even more weight in 2026.

Ty Pennington is locked in as the starter, and that stability matters after an offense that pushed 31.7 points and 251 passing yards per game, good marks of 26th and 21st nationally. The bigger question is whether Pennington and this attack can start finishing drives, since that 401-yard, 5.90-yards-per-play offense stalled to a 34.2% third-down rate, 91st nationally. Cactus Shadows three-star Donivan Dixon arrives as a developmental piece behind him, but 2026 is Pennington's offense to run, and the ceiling depends on cleaning up third downs more than finding a new arm.

Northern Arizona's ground game produced 150 rushing yards per game a year ago, a modest complement to a passing attack that ranked 21st nationally, and now the two backs who combined for the bulk of that production, Darvon Hubbard and Seth Cromwell, are both off the roster. That leaves Brian Wright leaning on an experienced backfield to soak up Cromwell's 559 yards and 7 touchdowns, with incoming three-star Lindsey Graves out of Clovis East added to the room as an unproven piece with no college stats yet. The passing game carried this offense to 31.7 points per game last season, and until the rushing production is re-established, that balance figures to tilt further through the air in 2026.

Northern Arizona's passing game ranked 21st nationally in yards per game last fall, but the production behind that number is scattered to the wind: Isaiah Eastman (35 catches, 444 yards), Jayson Raines (31 catches, 399 yards, 2 TD) and Ethen Cluff are all gone. Brian Wright has no proven name to plug into that void, turning instead to true freshmen Zeb White and Josiah Andrews, neither with a college catch on record. That is a steep bet for an offense that leaned on the pass at a 251-yard clip, and it means whichever experienced arm quarterbacks this attack will be throwing to a room that has to learn on the job in real time.

Isaiah Gerena's departure leaves a void at tight end for an offense that pushed 251 yards a game through the air and hit 5.90 yards per play a season ago, numbers that lean on the position doing its job in protection and the route tree. Gabe Sema arrives from Erie to compete for that role, an unproven piece stepping into a passing attack that already ranked 21st nationally without much explosive help underneath. Brian Wright's group scored 31.7 points a game in 2025, but a 34.2% third-down rate hints at missed chances on money downs, exactly the kind of gap a reliable tight end target can close.

Northern Arizona put up 401 yards a game and ranked 21st in passing offense a year ago, but the group that protected it is almost entirely turned over, with Terrance Caldwell, Ryan Cheesman, Connor DePrez, Steven Eakins and Jeremiah Katt among seven departures up front. Brian Wright rebuilt the room through the portal rather than the high school ranks, bringing in tackles Evan Haines and Carter Lavrusky, the latter arriving from Kansas, alongside interior additions Jakob McKindley, Dristan Williams and Jackson Venator. None of them carries prior stats on file, so the line's ability to sustain a run game that managed just 150 yards per game and a 34.2% third-down conversion rate will decide whether last season's offensive success rate (43.7%, 34th) holds up in 2026.

Northern Arizona's front allowed 6.22 yards per play (100th nationally) and 152 rushing yards a game last season, and the fix comes almost entirely from outside. Ziggy Loa arrives after collecting 6 tackles and a sack at UL Monroe, joined by Aisa Lopati and Jonas Kanyanga, who bring no prior stat lines but give Brian Wright fresh bodies at the edge to replace departed tackles Alani Ma'afu, Carlos Rivera and Tausagafou Ho Ching. None of that trio piled up big numbers a year ago, so the real swing factor for 2026 is whether Loa can turn modest 2025 production into a disruptive edge role behind a defense that still finished 56th against the run.

Northern Arizona's front seven allowed 152 rushing yards a game and 6.22 yards per play (100th nationally) last fall, and the group that produced it is scattering: Ramere Davis, Quinlan Popham and Travis Arena combined for the bulk of the tackle production departing linebackers, along with Trey Brown III and Brandon Wong. Matthew Cooks arrives from Texas Southern as a three-star transfer to help rebuild the room, joined by incoming signee Cannon Garday. With no returning production to point to by name, Brian Wright is betting Cooks and Garday can tighten a defense that let 42.7% of opponent plays stay on schedule, one of the softer marks in the Big Sky picture.

Passing defense allowed 238 yards a game and 6.22 yards per play (100th nationally) last season, and Brian Wright answered that with volume in the secondary rather than a single fix. Aundre Gibson arrives from Kansas to play corner alongside Hamilton product Xavion Brazil, while Isaiah Sensabaugh (Notre Dame), Nemo Fungula (Amador Valley) and Shoes Brinkley (McNeese) all come in at safety to pair with an experienced group already in the room. None of the four departed defensive backs topped four tackles, so the bigger swing for 2026 is whether the new arrivals can turn 42.7% of opponent plays staying on schedule into a number that actually trends down.

Samuel Hunsaker's departure erases a kicker who hit 11 of 15 field goals with a 50-yard long and 72 points, while Ben D'Aquila's exit takes away a punter who averaged 47.9 yards on 42 boots. Add in the loss of long snapper Logan MacGregor and Brian Wright has to piece together every specialist spot on the field goal, punt, and snap operations at once, none of it settled by returning production alone. That kind of across-the-board turnover in the kicking game is the sort of thing that swings close Big Sky games, and Northern Arizona's margin for error there just got smaller.

Ty Pennington's arm

Northern Arizona's season rides on Ty Pennington, who already threw for 2,705 yards and 16 touchdowns last fall but just lost his top target in Kolbe Katsis, an 881-yard, 8-touchdown producer. With a 138th-ranked recruiting class and a portal ledger that shipped out more than it brought in, this offense has no margin for Pennington to take a step back, he has to manufacture a new passing game with unproven targets almost entirely on his own reads and legs. If he does, the Lumberjacks stay competitive in the Big Sky; if the receiver room can't replace Katsis's production, the whole offense stalls behind him.

Backers keep losing money

Northern Arizona won seven games straight up in 2025 but covered just four of twelve tries, and the conference slate was the worst of it at 2-6 against the spread despite a 4-4 mark on the field. That gap between winning and covering points to a team that closes games out ugly, grinding to the finish line rather than blowing anyone out, which is exactly why bettors keep getting burned laying points with Brian Wright's group. Until Northern Arizona starts padding leads instead of just protecting them, the number is the safer side than the team.