Tarleton State Texans 2026 Season Preview

Whitten's Machine Keeps Humming

A 12-2 finish and a 7-1 mark in league play is not a fluke for Todd Whitten, it is the baseline. Tarleton State sits at No. 4 in the power ratings entering 2026, and that kind of standing for a program at this level speaks to a staff that reloads rather than rebuilds. With an experienced secondary anchoring the roster and the incoming pieces still filling in, the expectation locally is not whether Tarleton State competes for the UAC again, but by how much.

Rebuilding a Nation's Best Offense

Tarleton State scored more than anyone in the country a year ago, but the offense that led the sport at 42.4 points per game now hands the keys to Kaden Anderson, a Wyoming transfer who threw for 1,971 yards with a 12-10 touchdown-to-interception split in his last stop. That's a lateral move at best, and it puts real pressure on an explosive scheme (10th nationally, 1.40 per successful play) to mask a passer who turned it over almost as often as he scored. The defense that backstopped last year's 12-2 run, built on takeaways and third-down disruption, gives this staff room to let Anderson grow into the job rather than carry it.

Victor Gabalis is gone after throwing for 2897 yards and 30 touchdowns on a Todd Whitten offense that led the nation in scoring at 42.4 points per game, and none of the three transfers brought in to replace him have matched that ceiling. Kaden Anderson arrives from Wyoming with a 1971-yard, 12-touchdown season but also 10 interceptions, while Jackson Gilkey (Weber State) and Braedyn Locke (Arizona) bring far thinner résumés, including Gilkey's 9 picks against just 4 scores. Anderson's volume and starting experience make him the best bet to run this attack, but replicating last year's efficiency (45.2% success rate, 1.40 explosiveness) with a downgrade at the position is the real question here, not whether a starter emerges.

Tre Page III and Caleb Lewis combined to shoulder most of the load behind a scoring attack that led the country at 42.4 points per game, and both are gone, along with Deangelo Rosemond. That leaves the rushing production, a unit that finished 16th nationally at 194 yards per game, needing a new identity, and Todd Whitten brings in Miequle Brock Jr. from Nicholls to help find it. Brock arrives without a stat line to lean on, so how quickly he reads the same explosive scheme that ranked 10th in the country in play value will decide whether that ground game keeps pace with the passing attack.

Peyton Kramer and Trevon West are both gone, taking the bulk of a passing game that helped Tarleton State score 42.4 points per game a year ago, the top mark nationally. Camdon Frier arrives from Florida State without a college stat line, and Jaxson Lavender comes over from SMU as a rushing threat out of the receiver spot rather than a proven pass catcher. Todd Whitten built his attack on explosive plays, ranking 10th nationally in explosiveness, and the burden now falls on the transfers and an experienced group already on campus to keep that identity intact without Kramer's 1,024 yards or West's 749.

Dawson Hearne's departure erases the tight end room's top scoring threat, a player who turned just 10 catches into 6 touchdowns for an offense that led the country in points per game at 42.4. That kind of red-zone efficiency from the position is exactly what Todd Whitten's attack has to replicate without him, since the ground-and-air balance (194 rushing, 264 passing yards per game) leaned on that kind of high-value target working the middle of the field. Whoever inherits those touches inherits a proven scoring role, not just a roster spot.

Todd Whitten's offense scored at a national-best 42.4 points per game behind a line that paved the way for 458 total yards, but eight offensive linemen are gone from that group, including Braden Smith, Alec Ambrosia, Jack Gallagher, Nick Green and Artis Hall. The rebuild along the front leans on the transfer portal, with Terrance Saunders (Eastern Michigan) and Derek Joiner (Houston) brought in to fill the interior, while Braylon Reado arrives as a high school signee out of Brookshire Royal to address tackle. None of the three carry prior college stats, so the burden falls on them to protect a scheme that already ranked 10th nationally in explosiveness even though its rushing (194 yards per game, 16th) and third-down conversion (41.6%, 37th) numbers left room to grow.

Tarleton State's defense allowed just 18.6 points a game in 2025, built on a line that kept opponents off schedule, but nine linemen from that unit are gone, including Brandon Tolvert and Josh Griffis, the group's most productive disruptors up front. Kenyon Partridge arrives from Western Carolina to help fill that void, though the pass-rush production Griffis provided is the hardest piece to simply replace. The rush defense already sat at 75th in yards allowed per game last season, so any regression up front would hit the weakest link in an otherwise stout Todd Whitten defense.

Tarleton State's defense held opponents to 18.6 points and 164 passing yards a game in 2025, but almost none of the linebackers responsible are still around, with AJ Owens, Devin Sterling, Omar Emmons, Bam Smith and Ty Rawls all gone from a group that saw 11 departures in total. Memphis transfer Kenyon Rivera arrives as the headline addition, walking into a wide-open room with no returning production to lean on. The pass defense numbers were elite enough to survive some rebuilding, but replacing that much tackle volume at once means Rivera and whoever lines up next to him will be asked to grow up fast against a rushing defense that was already just 75th in yards allowed per game.

Tarleton State's secondary was the backbone of a 12-2 team, ranking 6th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (164) and 8th in points allowed, but nine defensive backs are gone from that group, including Blake Smith and Kasyus Kurns. Todd Whitten rebuilds the room through the portal rather than a rookie class, bringing in corner Fredd Adams from Coastal Carolina, corner Ja'Mareion Gipson from Nebraska Kearney and safety Kenyan Kelly from UTSA. The pass defense numbers set a high bar, but replacing that much production at once likely nudges Tarleton State's coverage back toward the pack even if the scheme stays sound.

Brad Larson's departure is the number that matters here: 13 of 14 field goals and 106 points off the books for Todd Whitten, a kicking leg that rarely missed and now has to be replaced without a name on the depth chart yet. Add in the losses of long snapper Matt Bosset and punter Wheeler Bowron, and Tarleton State is turning over all three specialist jobs from a 12-2, 7-1 league season at once. Whoever wins the placekicking job inherits a program that just won a lot of close games, so the margin for a shaky first month is thin.

Kaden Anderson's Adjustment

Tarleton State went 12-2 behind Victor Gabalis throwing for 2897 yards and 30 touchdowns, and replacing that production now falls to Kaden Anderson, a Wyoming transfer who threw for 1971 yards with 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions in his prior stop. That interception rate is the swing factor: a 211-ranked class and a heavy 13-player transfer haul suggest Tarleton retooled around him rather than banking on returning depth, so how Anderson cuts down the turnovers determines whether this offense still functions like last year's or takes a step back.

Backed, and Beating the Line

A 12-2 season did not just cash straight up, it turned Tarleton State into a market darling that still found value, covering at a 58% clip overall with a 60% cover rate on the road. The conference slate is the tell: Todd Whitten's club went 7-1 straight up in UAC play but only 3-4-1 against the number, meaning bettors priced in the dominance and the Texans still had to sweat the margin most weeks. As a road underdog Tarleton covered every time out, a sign the number outside conference often undersold this team even as home favorites cashed at a modest 57%.