
Every FCS team gets a page: last season’s results, returning production, and the schedule with a win probability on every game. Plus the projected 24-team bracket, conference orders of finish, and where our number disagrees with the market.
UAC · 9-5 in 2025Abilene Christian Wildcats7-5 projected · srs #9 · 26% returningKeith Patterson
SWAC · 4-8 in 2025Alabama A&M Bulldogs4-8 projected · srs #112 · 66% returningSam Shade
SWAC · 10-2 in 2025Alabama State Hornets8-4 projected · srs #28 · 55% returningEddie Robinson Jr.
SWAC · 5-7 in 2025Alcorn State Braves5-7 projected · srs #103 · 54% returningCedric Thomas
SWAC · 3-8 in 2025Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions3-8 projected · srs #117 · 60% returningAlonzo Hampton
UAC · 7-5 in 2025Austin Peay Governors7-5 projected · srs #16 · 57% returningJeff Faris
SWAC · 6-6 in 2025Bethune-Cookman Wildcats6-6 projected · srs #89 · 36% returningRaymond Woodie Jr.
Ivy · 5-5 in 2025Brown Bears4-6 projected · srs #64 · 78% returningJames Perry
CAA · 3-9 in 2025Bryant Bulldogs4-8 projected · srs #98 · 45% returningChris Merritt
Patriot · 5-7 in 2025Bucknell Bison4-8 projected · srs #102 · 61% returningJeff Behrman
Pioneer · 6-6 in 2025Butler Bulldogs4-8 projected · srs #92 · 92% returningKevin Lynch
Big Sky · 4-8 in 2025Cal Poly Mustangs6-6 projected · srs #27 · 57% returningTim Skipper
CAA · 2-10 in 2025Campbell Fighting Camels5-7 projected · srs #93 · 50% returningBraxton Harris
UAC · 3-9 in 2025Central Arkansas Bears4-8 projected · srs #58 · 46% returningNathan Brown
NEC · 8-5 in 2025Central Connecticut Blue Devils5-6 projected · srs #65 · 43% returningAdam Lechtenberg
OVC-Big South · 5-7 in 2025Charleston Southern Buccaneers5-7 projected · srs #72 · 46% returningGabe Giardina
Southern · 5-7 in 2025Chattanooga Mocs5-7 projected · srs #84 · 46% returningRusty Wright
Patriot · 5-7 in 2025Colgate Raiders5-7 projected · srs #68 · 57% returningCurt Fitzpatrick
Ivy · 2-8 in 2025Columbia Lions4-6 projected · srs #90 · 89% returningJon Poppe
Ivy · 4-6 in 2025Cornell Big Red4-6 projected · srs #83 · 85% returningDan Swanstrom
Ivy · 7-3 in 2025Dartmouth Big Green5-5 projected · srs #37 · 59% returningSammy McCorkle
Pioneer · 2-10 in 2025Davidson Wildcats3-9 projected · srs #123 · 22% returningSaj Thakkar
Pioneer · 7-4 in 2025Dayton Flyers6-5 projected · srs #75 · 92% returningTrevor Andrews
MEAC · 8-4 in 2025Delaware State Hornets6-6 projected · srs #71 · 27% returningDeSean Jackson
Pioneer · 8-4 in 2025Drake Bulldogs7-4 projected · srs #40 · 20% returningMatt Walker
NEC · 7-5 in 2025Duquesne Dukes4-7 projected · srs #76 · 35% returningJerry Schmitt
Southern · 7-5 in 2025East Tennessee State Buccaneers7-5 projected · srs #34 · 33% returningWill Healy
Southland · 3-9 in 2025East Texas A&M Lions4-8 projected · srs #82 · 34% returningClint Dolezel
OVC-Big South · 3-9 in 2025Eastern Illinois Panthers4-8 projected · srs #94 · 55% returningChris Wilkerson
UAC · 5-7 in 2025Eastern Kentucky Colonels5-7 projected · srs #35 · 58% returningWalt Wells
Big Sky · 5-7 in 2025Eastern Washington Eagles5-7 projected · srs #32 · 76% returningAaron Best
CAA · 6-6 in 2025Elon Phoenix7-5 projected · srs #46 · 32% returningTony Trisciani
SWAC · 5-7 in 2025Florida A&M Rattlers4-8 projected · srs #115 · 34% returningQuinn Gray Sr.
Patriot · 1-11 in 2025Fordham Rams3-9 projected · srs #111 · 64% returningJoe Conlin
Southern · 6-6 in 2025Furman Paladins5-7 projected · srs #81 · 49% returningClay Hendrix
OVC-Big South · 7-5 in 2025Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs6-6 projected · srs #48 · 31% returningKris McCullough
Patriot · 6-6 in 2025Georgetown Hoyas4-7 projected · srs #95 · 24% returningRob Sgarlata
SWAC · 7-5 in 2025Grambling Tigers4-7 projected · srs #99 · 59% returningMickey Joseph
CAA · 2-10 in 2025Hampton Pirates3-9 projected · srs #119 · 76% returningVan Malone
Ivy · 9-2 in 2025Harvard Crimson7-3 projected · srs #19 · 47% returningAndrew Aurich
Patriot · 3-9 in 2025Holy Cross Crusaders5-7 projected · srs #61 · 39% returningDan Curran
Southland · 2-10 in 2025Houston Christian Huskies2-10 projected · srs #107 · 36% returningJason Bachtel
MEAC · 5-7 in 2025Howard Bison4-8 projected · srs #106 · 32% returningTed White
Big Sky · 6-6 in 2025Idaho State Bengals8-4 projected · srs #14 · 96% returningCody Hawkins
Big Sky · 4-8 in 2025Idaho Vandals5-7 projected · srs #26 · 53% returningThomas Ford Jr., Yr 1
MVFC · 12-5 in 2025Illinois State Redbirds8-4 projected · srs #6 · 32% returningBrock Spack
Southland · 5-7 in 2025Incarnate Word Cardinals6-6 projected · srs #33 · 61% returningClint Killough
MVFC · 3-9 in 2025Indiana State Sycamores5-7 projected · srs #59 · 57% returningCurt Mallory
SWAC · 9-3 in 2025Jackson State Tigers7-4 projected · srs #43 · 29% returningT.C. Taylor
Patriot · 8-4 in 2025Lafayette Leopards7-5 projected · srs #38 · 59% returningJohn Troxell
Southland · 8-5 in 2025Lamar Cardinals6-6 projected · srs #31 · 49% returningPete Rossomando
Patriot · 12-1 in 2025Lehigh Mountain Hawks9-3 projected · srs #11 · 67% returningRichard Nagy
OVC-Big South · 6-6 in 2025Lindenwood Lions5-6 projected · srs #56 · 52% returningJed Stugart
NEC · 6-6 in 2025Long Island University Sharks5-7 projected · srs #79 · 75% returningRon Cooper
CAA · 6-6 in 2025Maine Black Bears5-6 projected · srs #57 · 32% returningJordan Stevens
Pioneer · 5-7 in 2025Marist Red Foxes5-7 projected · srs #91 · 74% returningMike Willis
Southland · 5-7 in 2025McNeese Cowboys5-7 projected · srs #66 · 65% returningMatt Viator
Southern · 9-3 in 2025Mercer Bears8-4 projected · srs #24 · 38% returningJoel Taylor
NEC · 5-7 in 2025Mercyhurst Lakers4-8 projected · srs #80 · 27% returningThomas Sydeski
FCS Indep. · 4-8 in 2025Merrimack Warriors3-9 projected · srs #86 · 48% returningMike Gennetti
SWAC · 2-10 in 2025Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils2-10 projected · srs #120 · 56% returningTerrell Buckley
CAA · 9-3 in 2025Monmouth Hawks8-4 projected · srs #29 · 35% returningJeff Gallo
Big Sky · 13-2 in 2025Montana Grizzlies9-3 projected · srs #2 · 47% returningBobby Kennedy
Big Sky · 14-2 in 2025Montana State Bobcats10-2 projected · srs #1 · 76% returningBrent Vigen
Pioneer · 6-6 in 2025Morehead State Eagles4-8 projected · srs #110 · 49% returningJason Woodman
MEAC · 4-8 in 2025Morgan State Bears5-7 projected · srs #100 · 48% returningDamon Wilson
MVFC · 1-11 in 2025Murray State Racers3-9 projected · srs #87 · 58% returningJody Wright
CAA · 8-5 in 2025New Hampshire Wildcats7-5 projected · srs #30 · 27% returningSean Goldrich
Southland · 4-8 in 2025Nicholls Colonels6-6 projected · srs #60 · 56% returningTommy Rybacki
MEAC · 1-11 in 2025Norfolk State Spartans3-9 projected · srs #116 · 28% returningMike Vick
UAC · 2-10 in 2025North Alabama Lions4-8 projected · srs #77 · 53% returningBrent Dearmon
CAA · 2-10 in 2025North Carolina A&T Aggies3-9 projected · srs #113 · 65% returningShawn Gibbs
MEAC · 8-4 in 2025North Carolina Central Eagles6-6 projected · srs #67 · 80% returningTrei Oliver
MVFC · 8-6 in 2025North Dakota Fighting Hawks9-3 projected · srs #3 · 46% returningEric Schmidt
Big Sky · 7-5 in 2025Northern Arizona Lumberjacks6-6 projected · srs #22 · 42% returningBrian Wright
Big Sky · 4-8 in 2025Northern Colorado Bears4-8 projected · srs #39 · 57% returningEd Lamb
MVFC · 3-9 in 2025Northern Iowa Panthers4-7 projected · srs #44 · 53% returningTodd Stepsis
Southland · 1-11 in 2025Northwestern State Demons2-10 projected · srs #114 · 65% returningBlaine McCorkle
Ivy · 6-4 in 2025Pennsylvania Quakers5-5 projected · srs #50 · 16% returningRick Santos
Big Sky · 1-11 in 2025Portland State Vikings3-9 projected · srs #85 · 87% returningChris Fisk
SWAC · 10-4 in 2025Prairie View A&M Panthers7-5 projected · srs #55 · 32% returningTremaine Jackson
Pioneer · 10-2 in 2025Presbyterian Blue Hose7-4 projected · srs #52 · 26% returningMatt Rahl
Ivy · 3-7 in 2025Princeton Tigers5-5 projected · srs #62 · 53% returningBob Surace
CAA · 11-3 in 2025Rhode Island Rams8-4 projected · srs #25 · 66% returningJim Fleming
Patriot · 7-5 in 2025Richmond Spiders6-6 projected · srs #70 · 39% returningRuss Huesman
NEC · 3-9 in 2025Robert Morris Colonials4-8 projected · srs #105 · 48% returningBernard Clark Jr.
CAA · 8-4 in 2025Sacred Heart Pioneers5-6 projected · srs #74 · 76% returningMark Nofri
Southern · 1-11 in 2025Samford Bulldogs3-9 projected · srs #109 · 43% returningJohn Grass
Pioneer · 8-4 in 2025San Diego Toreros6-5 projected · srs #53 · 44% returningBrandon Moore
Southland · 9-4 in 2025SE Louisiana Lions7-5 projected · srs #20 · 40% returningFrank Scelfo
MEAC · 10-3 in 2025South Carolina State Bulldogs7-5 projected · srs #41 · 80% returningChennis Berry
MVFC · 10-5 in 2025South Dakota Coyotes7-5 projected · srs #12 · 28% returningMatt Vitzthum
MVFC · 9-5 in 2025South Dakota State Jackrabbits8-4 projected · srs #8 · 36% returningDan Jackson
OVC-Big South · 4-8 in 2025Southeast Missouri State Redhawks5-7 projected · srs #73 · 35% returningTom Matukewicz
MVFC · 7-5 in 2025Southern Illinois Salukis8-4 projected · srs #7 · 21% returningNick Hill
SWAC · 2-10 in 2025Southern Jaguars2-10 projected · srs #122 · 91% returningMarshall Faulk
Big Sky · 7-5 in 2025Southern Utah Thunderbirds7-5 projected · srs #18 · 19% returning
Pioneer · 7-5 in 2025St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies7-5 projected · srs #36 · 40% returningGlenn Caruso
Southland · 11-3 in 2025Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks9-3 projected · srs #5 · 34% returningColby Carthel
Pioneer · 3-9 in 2025Stetson Hatters2-10 projected · srs #124 · 99% returningMike Jasper
NEC · 4-8 in 2025Stonehill Skyhawks4-8 projected · srs #101 · 22% returningEli Gardner
CAA · 6-6 in 2025Stony Brook Seawolves7-5 projected · srs #49 · 38% returningBilly Cosh
UAC · 12-2 in 2025Tarleton State Texans9-3 projected · srs #4 · 20% returningTodd Whitten
OVC-Big South · 2-10 in 2025Tennessee State Tigers4-8 projected · srs #108 · 71% returningReggie Barlow
Southern · 11-2 in 2025Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles8-4 projected · srs #21 · 29% returningBobby Wilder
SWAC · 6-5 in 2025Texas Southern Tigers5-6 projected · srs #97 · 50% returningCris Dishman
Southern · 4-8 in 2025The Citadel Bulldogs5-7 projected · srs #69 · 51% returningMaurice Drayton
CAA · 6-6 in 2025Towson Tigers6-6 projected · srs #63 · 41% returningPete Shinnick
CAA · 2-10 in 2025UAlbany Great Danes4-8 projected · srs #96 · 42% returningTom Perkovich
Big Sky · 9-4 in 2025UC Davis Aggies8-4 projected · srs #10 · 33% returningTim Plough
OVC-Big South · 6-6 in 2025UT Martin Skyhawks6-6 projected · srs #54 · 30% returningJason Simpson
Big Sky · 2-10 in 2025Utah Tech Trailblazers3-9 projected · srs #78 · 67% returningLance Anderson
Pioneer · 2-10 in 2025Valparaiso Beacons2-9 projected · srs #121 · 73% returningAndy Waddle
Patriot · 12-3 in 2025Villanova Wildcats9-3 projected · srs #17 · 26% returningMark Ferrante
Southern · 1-11 in 2025VMI Keydets3-9 projected · srs #118 · 72% returningAshley Ingram
NEC · 5-7 in 2025Wagner Seahawks4-8 projected · srs #104 · 70% returningTom Masella
Big Sky · 4-8 in 2025Weber State Wildcats5-7 projected · srs #51 · 47% returningEric Kjar
UAC · 8-3 in 2025West Georgia Wolves6-6 projected · srs #23 · 8% returningSteve Englehart
Southern · 7-5 in 2025Western Carolina Catamounts6-6 projected · srs #42 · 31% returning
OVC-Big South · 4-8 in 2025Western Illinois Leathernecks5-7 projected · srs #88 · 38% returningJoe Davis
Patriot · 7-5 in 2025William & Mary Tribe6-6 projected · srs #47 · 39% returningMike London
Southern · 6-6 in 2025Wofford Terriers6-6 projected · srs #45 · 81% returningShawn Watson
Ivy · 9-3 in 2025Yale Bulldogs7-3 projected · srs #15 · 50% returningKevin Cahill
MVFC · 8-5 in 2025Youngstown State Penguins7-4 projected · srs #13 · 51% returningDoug PhillipsPioneer · Andy Waddle · 2-10 last season · No. 121 in our FCS ratings
Rowan Keefe returns as the answer at quarterback for a team that ranks 121st in the power ratings, but 73% returning production means Valparaiso is mostly bringing back the same group that finished 95th in scoring offense and 107th in scoring defense.
Can Rowan Keefe turn a 2-10 offense into something more than what it was a year ago now that he owns the job outright? With 73.2% of the offensive production back around him but no Ricketti to target, Keefe is more likely to spread the ball around and grind out modest gains than to replicate last year's downfield numbers. The most probable outcome is incremental growth rather than a leap, since the pieces returning are the same ones that struggled to move the ball in 2025.
Andy Waddle's group is projected at 2-9 against a slate ranked 106th in difficulty, and the only game on the board with a real edge is at Stetson, a near coin-flip at 49%. Everything else trends against Valparaiso, with road trips to San Diego and Indiana State sitting at 13% and 14% respectively, and a home date with St. Thomas-Minnesota barely better at 18%. This is a program still hunting its first real signature win rather than one positioned to make a run, and Stetson is the game that decides whether 2026 looks any different than the 2-10 finish that preceded it.
Every team in the FCS book. Each one has its own preview: projected finish, what the roster returns, and the games that decide the season.
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Andy Waddle's Pioneer squad closed 2025 having won a single Pioneer League game, and the on-field product backed that up with a national power rating stuck at No. 121. That kind of output, a 2-10 season with just one league win, means 2026 is about building a floor rather than chasing a leap. Nothing in the results says this program is close to competitive in its own conference yet.
Rowan Keefe returns as the settled starter, but that continuity did nothing for an offense that managed just 20.3 points and 4.78 yards per play a year ago. The bigger drag is the minus-14 turnover margin, 121st nationally, which turned a bad offense into an unwatchable one and buried Valparaiso at 1-7 in Pioneer play. Keefe cleaning up the ball security is the whole story here, not a scheme tweak or a new face at quarterback.
Rowan Keefe is the settled answer at quarterback, but the numbers around him last season explain why Valparaiso scored just 20.3 points a game. Caron Tyler's 400 yards with 2 touchdowns against 2 interceptions were the extent of the passing production in 2025, in an offense that ranked 108th in passing yards per game and 100th in success rate. Keefe takes over an attack that needs to find explosive plays beyond its 78th-ranked explosiveness mark, and there is little returning passing volume behind him to lean on if he struggles early.
Noah Long paced Valparaiso's backs with 310 yards and 2 scores a year ago, but the more productive pair, Michael Mansaray and Dawaiian McNeely, who combined for seven touchdowns, are both gone. That leaves Long as the clear early-down option alongside Michael Rumoro, who managed just 137 yards on a rushing attack that ranked 109th nationally and averaged only 4.78 yards per play. Amir Simmons offers a wrinkle as a pass-catching back with 90 yards on just three grabs, but until Andy Waddle's offense finds more explosive plays than last year's 78th-ranked mark, this group is fighting the same efficiency problems that capped Valparaiso's ground game in 2025.
Chris Gundy's 18 catches for 270 yards and Micah Mackay's 12 grabs for 196 yards were modest complementary numbers behind Jay Melchiori and Ryan Ricketti, who combined for the bulk of Valparaiso's production before departing. Now Gundy and Mackay become the top returning options for a passing game that ranked 108th in the country in yards per game, with Marty O'Keeffe and Jack Elgin needing to turn a handful of catches into real volume. Andy Waddle's offense was already limited through the air last season, and replacing 78 combined catches with two lightly-tested holdovers is a step down before it can be a step forward.
Colin Hayes was the closest thing to a reliable target Valparaiso had at tight end last season, turning 11 catches into 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he anchors a room that returns fully intact into 2026. Brayden Welch flashed with a touchdown on just 2 catches, and Jackson Crawford and Dom DiNuzzo return without a stat line to lean on, giving Andy Waddle experienced bodies but not much proven production behind Hayes. That matters because this offense finished 108th in passing yards per game and 100th in success rate, so any real jump in the passing attack likely runs through Hayes claiming a bigger share of the targets.
Valparaiso's line put a rushing attack that managed only 113 yards per game and 4.78 yards per play, numbers that ranked 109th and 106th nationally, and that offense scored just 20.3 points a game. Jorge Benavente, Michael Biesboer, Cooper Bothwell, Mathew Gasior and Jacob Gorberg are back up front, with Justin Hemmersbach also in the mix, but the loss of Niko Paic removes a name who anchored the group's continuity. Andy Waddle needs that returning core to actually gel into a cohesive front, because last year's version could not consistently move anyone off the ball.
Valparaiso's front allowed 182 rushing yards a game and 6.07 yards per play last season, numbers that had opposing offenses staying on schedule more often than not against a line that produced almost nothing statistically. De'Andre Wilborn, whose 28 rushing yards were the only box-score trace this group left behind, is gone along with Shawn Fester, Jacardon Hardemon and George Trojanek. Andy Waddle now hands the room to Caleb Baczek, Gabriel Batres, Jonathan Bauzon, Bertrand Berry II, Kamren Bryant and Nathan Fletcher, none of whom have logged prior stats, which means 2026 is less a continuation than a clean look at whether this front can actually get off blocks.
Valparaiso surrendered 35.6 points a game a year ago, a number that landed the defense 107th nationally in that category, and the linebacker corps returning intact this fall is the group tasked with cleaning that up. Anthony Feltrinelli, Nathan Harris, Easton Hill, Justin Jurmu, Micah Markley and Tyler McBride are all back, with Hunter Nabers and Carsen Burckhardt the only losses at the position, so continuity of bodies is not the issue. The issue is whether that returning group can close the gap on the ground, where Valparaiso allowed 182 rushing yards a game, 95th nationally, and turn familiarity into fewer schemes stopping them cold.
Points allowed cratered to 35.6 a game last fall, a number that had as much to do with a secondary that let opponents stay on schedule 42.7% of the time as anything up front. Colin Abercrombie, David Akinbosoye, Frank Bartell, Nick Beidl, Aaron Briggs and Donovan Brown are all back to take another swing at it, with Tavion Grant and Uriel Richardson gone from that group. The pass defense actually held up relatively well at 208 yards allowed per game, so the path to fixing Andy Waddle's defense in 2026 runs through this same core group tightening the details rather than replacing talent.
Luke Scoma converted just 4 of 7 field goals last season, but a 43-yard long and the departure of Liam Shepherd's scoreless kicking line leave him as the clear incumbent with room to sharpen his percentage. The bigger swing is at punter, where Nate Hillenburg's 49 boots at a 40-yard average are gone and Zander Lankford, who averaged 33 yards on just five attempts, has to prove that workload was a fluke rather than a preview. Morgan Smith arrives with no prior statistics to lean on, so Valparaiso's net punting in 2026 rests almost entirely on whether Lankford can scale up his sample size without his average sinking further behind what Hillenburg produced.
Valparaiso lost its top target in Ryan Ricketti, and with zero transfer additions arriving to soften the blow, Rowan Keefe has to build chemistry with Chris Gundy, who caught 18 passes for 270 yards last season, to keep the passing game functional. Noah Long's 310 rushing yards give Keefe a ground-game outlet, but after a 1-7 conference finish this offense only turns the corner if Keefe and Gundy click as a real 1-2 punch.
Valparaiso backers who chase the number on the road have been burned every time, going 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread as visitors, with the road-underdog mark sitting at that same 2-4. Home is where Andy Waddle's group has actually been playable, splitting 2-2 against the number and covering half its conference games at 4-4, even while going 1-7 on the field in league play. The gap between that flat conference cover rate and the road collapse is the whole story for bettors in 2026, not the 2-10 record itself.
14 more sections in the full Valparaiso Beacons preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.