Northern Iowa Panthers 2026 Season Preview

Results Versus Reality

Todd Stepsis oversaw a 3-9 season that bottomed out at 1-7 in the MVFC, the kind of league mark that reads worse than the tape looked. Northern Iowa still checked in at No. 44 in the power ratings, a gap between how the Panthers played and how they finished that points to close losses rather than a program in decline. The number to watch in 2026 is whether Stepsis can turn that underlying quality into league wins instead of near-misses.

The Record Lies

Northern Iowa went 3-9 and 1-7 in conference, but the underlying numbers say that record was a mirage: the yardage margin in league play implied a win rate nearly triple what the Panthers actually posted, and a -8 turnover margin plus a 1-2 mark in one-score games both point to bad luck rather than bad football. The offense burned 18.2 yards for every point it scored against a league median of 13.9, leaving points on the field behind Matthew Schecklman, the projected starter after throwing for 1,389 yards, 9 TD and 7 INT in 2025. If Schecklman and this offense simply convert at a normal rate in 2026, Todd Stepsis has a team built to climb well past its 2025 finish.

Matthew Schecklman threw for 1,389 yards with 9 touchdowns against 7 interceptions last season, and he heads into 2026 as the settled answer at quarterback rather than one half of a competition. The bigger issue for Todd Stepsis is what happens around him: an offense that ranked 119th nationally in explosiveness and finished 109th in scoring at 17.3 points per game gave Schecklman little margin for those turnovers. Jaxon Dailey provides experienced depth behind him after throwing 7 touchdowns of his own in relief work, but the path back for Northern Iowa runs through Schecklman tightening the ball security, not through a new arm.

Bill Jackson (455 yards, 3 TD) and Harrison Bey-Buie (487 yards, 5 TD) combined for nearly all of last year's rushing production, and neither is back, leaving Christian Collins (70 yards) and Titus Cram (29 yards) as the only returnees with any carries on record. That production gap is why Florida Atlantic transfer Xavier Terrell, who ran for 161 yards and a score, projects as the clear lead back walking into 2026. Given a rushing attack that ranked 93rd nationally in yards per game and 119th in explosiveness, Terrell's ability to create something beyond what Jackson and Bey-Buie left behind will decide whether Todd Stepsis's offense moves the ball on the ground at all.

JC Roque Jr. anchors this group after a 56-catch, 595-yard season, and he no longer has to do it with an explosive passing game around him, given an offense that ranked 119th in explosiveness a year ago. The bigger swing is at the margins: Tysen Kershaw's 454 yards are gone, but Drake transfer Taj Hughes arrives with 39 catches and 406 yards of his own, and Ayden Price's 20 catches and 365 yards give Todd Stepsis a second proven target. If Hughes slots in quickly, this passing game has more established production returning than its 86th-ranked yardage output last season would suggest.

Briggs Hughston is the only tight end in this room with a catch on his résumé, and his 7 grabs for 75 yards and 2 scores now have to stretch further with Derek Anderson's 20 catches and 184 yards gone. Kaleb Diers, Brady McCullough, Brady McDonald, Parker Sutherland and Tiernan Vokes are all back, but none has logged a stat yet, which means Hughston is the only proven answer in an offense that ranked 119th nationally in explosiveness and needs more from its underneath game than a bare 38.5% third-down rate. If this passing attack is going to climb from 86th in yards per game, it runs through Hughston until one of those unproven names forces his way onto the stat sheet.

Todd Stepsis inherits a line that could not create explosive plays a year ago, ranking 119th in explosiveness while the ground game managed just 126 yards per game. Five departures with names on file, Blake Anderson, Keean Kamerling, Kyle Kelly, Jordan Ver Meer and Josh Volk among six total losses up front, wipe out most of the group that produced that stagnant 5.10 yards per play. Whatever combination Stepsis assembles has to find movement in the run game before the passing attack, which managed a respectable 188 yards per game, can threaten anyone downfield.

Northern Iowa's front let opponents stay on schedule at a rate that ranked 98th nationally, and last year's rush defense (176 yards allowed per game, 84th) reflects a line that couldn't consistently win first down. Owen Ostroski and Jack Kriebs, the departing tackle-for-loss producers, are gone, and the fix comes via the portal in Wyoming edge Axel Ramazani, a 3-star addition brought in to give Todd Stepsis a disruptive presence off the edge. The passing downs numbers (204 yards allowed per game, 42nd) suggest the back end held up better than the front, so Ramazani's impact on early downs and the pass rush will decide whether that 5.92 yards per play mark climbs or repeats.

Kolben Miller's lone tackle for loss was the modest statistical high-water mark for a linebacker corps that watched Caleb Frazer, Ryan Crandall and Tucker Langenberg all depart after producing the bulk of the position's tackles in 2025. That trio's absence lands on a defense that already ranked 84th against the run and let 45.1% of opponent plays stay on schedule, so Miller, Braden McShane and John Powers inherit run-fits without much of a track record behind them. Todd Stepsis has Tyson Cooreman, Aidan Ducharme and Connor Kayser in the mix too, but until one of these names starts stacking tackles, the front seven's rush defense figures to be the soft spot again.

Northern Iowa's secondary bled explosive plays last year, allowing 204 passing yards a game while opponents stayed ahead of the chains on 98th-ranked down-and-distance efficiency, a combination that points to a group giving up chunks rather than tackling in space. Safety Mo Olowo and corners Jonathan Cabral-Martin and Fletcher Marshall Jr. are all gone, taking their tackle production with them, along with safety Dillon Marshall. With those four departures clearing out the back end, an experienced secondary returns to anchor things while Todd Stepsis leans on that group to tighten a pass defense that already ranked 42nd nationally against the throw, even as the run defense at 176 yards allowed per game remains the bigger problem to fix.

Max Bartachek's leg is the one proven piece here, and it is a good one: 10 of 13 field goals with a 46-yarder and 53 points last fall give Northern Iowa a placekicker who does not need replacing. The bigger question is who takes over the punting job with Noah Pettinger and his 41.9-yard average gone, since no returning punter carries stats on file. Long snapper is settled between Gavin Averbeck and Kyle Kopczynski, so Todd Stepsis can focus his attention on finding a leg to handle the punting load Bartachek does not.

Matthew Schecklman's ball security

Matthew Schecklman threw for 1,389 yards and 9 touchdowns last season but also 7 interceptions, and that ratio is the swing factor for a team that went 1-7 in the MVFC. With JC Roque Jr. back after a 56-catch, 7-touchdown season and Xavier Terrell arriving from Florida Atlantic to replace Bill Jackson's ground production, Schecklman has the weapons to move the offense; whether Northern Iowa climbs out of the conference basement comes down to him cutting down the turnovers that sank last year's team.

Todd Stepsis's Conference Cover Gap

Northern Iowa went 1-7 in MVFC play but covered six of eight of those conference games, a gap that says more about 2026 than the record does. Todd Stepsis's team was competitive enough to stay live against the number even while losing on the road every single time, going 0-6 straight up away from home despite a 3-3 mark against the spread there. That split, close in the loss column but live on the number, is the identity to bet into again unless the road results themselves finally turn.