Idaho State Bengals 2026 Season Preview

Hawkins Building Something Steady

A .500 record undersells what Cody Hawkins actually built in 2025, a Big Sky team that went 5-3 in league play and graded out at No. 14 nationally in power rating, well ahead of its overall win-loss line. That gap between raw record and how the team actually rated matters more heading into 2026 than the 6-6 mark does, since it points to a program playing better than its results showed down the stretch. With the transfer and signing classes still filling in behind last year's group, the story for Idaho State is whether Hawkins can close that gap between performance and outcome rather than simply repeat it.

Hawkins Inherits an Efficient Machine

A 6-6 finish sold this offense short. Idaho State ranked 6th nationally in total yards and 4th in passing yards, and needed just 13.9 yards per point scored against a league median of 13.9, meaning nothing wasted, nothing left on the field. The bigger flag is the record itself: at 1-2 in one-score games and a turnover margin of -1, Cody Hawkins' group lost close ones it was efficient enough to win, while a defense that made opponents earn 15.4 yards per point allowed bent without breaking. Expect the record to catch up to the operation in 2026.

Idaho State's passing attack ranked 4th nationally in yards per game a year ago, part of an offense that moved the ball at 6.64 yards per play, and none of that came with a proven quarterback name attached in the data available. Cody Hawkins now hands the reins to Kepa Niumeitolu, a three-star arrival from Lone Peak with no prior college statistics on file, asking a true unknown to run a system that was already elite through the air and merely middling on the ground at 156 yards per game. The bet is that Idaho State's passing infrastructure carries a first-time starter rather than the other way around, and given how explosive the ground game was not (80th in explosiveness), Niumeitolu's efficiency through the air will decide whether that 33.0-points-per-game pace holds.

Idaho State's ground game was the quiet piece of a top-six total offense, chewing out 156 yards per game while Cody Hawkins leaned on a passing attack that ranked 4th nationally in yardage. That imbalance is the real story for 2026: the Bengals scored at an 18th-ranked clip and posted a 48.3% success rate largely through the air, and unless the rushing production climbs out of the 55th-ranked range, defenses can keep selling out on the pass. An offense already averaging 6.64 yards per play has margin to get more explosive (80th) if the run game finally pulls its weight.

Idaho State's passing game put up 304 yards per game through the air, fourth-best nationally, and Chedon James arrives from Incarnate Word to keep that machine humming after catching 42 passes for 494 yards and 4 touchdowns there. Nevada transfer Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio and Coastal Carolina transfer Eli Aragon add more portal firepower, while Anthony Harrington joins as a high school signee out of Amador Valley. Jonah Burton's 21 catches and 233 yards walk out the door, but with an offense that ranked 8th in success rate and 18th in third-down conversion, Cody Hawkins has the pieces on hand to keep that passing attack near the top of the country.

Idaho State's passing attack put up 304 yards per game a season ago, and Cody Hawkins adds Chedon James and Titan Saxton to the tight end room to keep stretching defenses through the air. Neither posted gaudy numbers at his previous stop, but both slot into an offense that ranked 8th nationally in success rate and 4th in passing yards, giving them a real chance to produce in a scheme that already knows how to move the ball. The bigger swing factor is whether either can add a vertical element, since this attack ranked just 80th in explosiveness, a gap a seam-stretching tight end could help close.

Idaho State's offense put up 459 yards a game, 6th nationally, and threw for 304 a game behind a line that gave its quarterback time to push the ball downfield, even if the explosiveness number (80th) shows the big plays did not always follow. That production has to hold up with a retooled front, and Cody Hawkins added Zoom Esplin, a transfer tackle from Weber State, to protect the edges while high school signee Luke Kingman comes in as an interior piece. Neither has a snap of college production on record yet, so the passing infrastructure that made Idaho State's offense one of the country's most prolific through the air is the standard the new pieces have to match, not just approach.

Idaho State gave up 6.20 yards per play and 186 rushing yards a game in 2025, numbers that put the front on notice heading into 2026. Cody Hawkins went to the portal and to the prep ranks to address it, landing BYU transfer Sani Tuala up front, Mead product Garrett Miller off the edge, and Sky View signee Sitili Palmer along the interior. None of the three carries prior college stats, so the early read on whether this group tightens up the run defense comes from fall camp, not last year's box score.

Idaho State's front seven let opponents stay on schedule at a 43.7% clip and gave up 186 rushing yards a game, numbers that put the run defense 99th nationally and made second-and-manageable a rarity for Cody Hawkins' defense. The lone linebacker addition on record is Trehsyn Fesili, a three-star from Mililani with no prior college stats to lean on, so the improvement in that yards-per-play figure (6.20 allowed, 97th) has to come from an experienced group already in the building rather than a splashy transfer fix. Cleaning up the rushing numbers is the whole ballgame here, since the passing defense at 233 yards a game was the more respectable side of the ledger in 2025.

Idaho State's back end gave up 233 yards a game through the air last season, a middling number that masked a run defense bleeding 186 yards a game on the ground, and the fix arrives via the portal rather than internal development. Titan Saxton, who logged 8 tackles at Utah State, steps into the safety room alongside an experienced secondary, joined by Cienega's Jaden Rodgers and Basha's Kaedyn Smith. None of that trio inherits Jonathan Watts' old spot by default, but Saxton's game snaps at the FBS level make him the safety most likely to stabilize a defense that finished 97th in yards per play allowed.

Gabe Russo's departure leaves a real void, a punter who averaged 46.4 yards on 38 attempts a year ago and gave Idaho State a field-position weapon most Big Sky teams could not match. Cody Hawkins has no returning production to point to at the spot, so whoever takes over duties in 2026 has to answer for that average almost from the first snap. Until a name emerges, treat the punting job as the swing factor in a special teams unit that otherwise has experienced pieces around it.

Chedon James

Idaho State's passing game rides on Chedon James, the Incarnate Word transfer who arrives with 42 catches, 494 yards and 4 touchdowns, numbers that dwarf what departed wideout Jonah Burton's 21 catches and 233 yards ever provided. A 3-star pickup landing on a roster with a 171st-ranked signing class is exactly the kind of jump that moves a receiving corps, and if James produces at his Incarnate Word rate, Idaho State's offense gets a legitimate outside threat it lacked in 2025.

Bet Idaho State, Not the Line

A 6-6 record undersells what Idaho State actually did to bettors last year, covering 8-3 overall and 6-2 in Big Sky play. Cody Hawkins' teams have hit as road underdogs (4-2) and gone a perfect 2-0 when installed as home favorites, the profile of a team that plays harder than its record suggests. The one soft spot is bouncing back after a loss, where the Bengals covered just twice in five tries, so backing them off a defeat requires more caution than backing them anywhere else.