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Chase Spellman inherits a defense that ranked 5th nationally in scoring last year but must now anchor an offense with just 20% production returning, and a Pioneer contender built on stopping people has to relearn how to score with him at the controls.
Can Chase Spellman carry an offense that returns just 20% of its production? Nick Herman's 921 rushing yards walk out the door with almost everyone else, leaving Spellman as the lone proven piece for Matt Walker to build around. Given how thin the cupboard is beyond him, the offense will go as far as Spellman's arm takes it, and that bet looks like Drake's best path back to another 7-1 conference mark.
Coming off a 7-1 conference year under Matt Walker, Drake's 2026 slate ranks 107th in difficulty, but the trip to Montana is the outlier that will define the whole season, a game the projections give the Bulldogs just a 15% shot to win. Sandwiched around that are two more real swing spots, at St. Thomas-Minnesota (42%) and at Northern Iowa (44%), both toss-ups that could easily flip either way. The rest of the board, from home dates with Butler and Marist to a favorable trip to Davidson, sets up a path to the projected 7-4 finish if Drake simply holds serve against everyone else.
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Matt Walker closed 2025 at 8-4 with a 7-1 mark in league play, the kind of conference control that puts Drake at #40 in the power ratings, well above where a Pioneer League team usually sits. That combination of a national ranking most FCS-level peers cannot touch and a one-loss conference slate is the story here, not any storyline about the coach's standing. Drake heads into 2026 as the program other Pioneer League staffs have to catch, built on the identity Walker already has in place.
Drake's identity in 2026 runs through the ground game, not Chase Spellman's arm. The rushing attack finished 10th nationally in yards per game a year ago, and that number matters more now that Spellman, who threw just 2 touchdowns against 2 interceptions in his 489 yards last season, is the settled answer at quarterback. The passing game ranked 114th, so Drake's plan is clear: lean on the run, let the defense that held opponents to 17.7 points per game do the rest, and ask Spellman to avoid mistakes rather than carry the offense himself.
Chase Spellman only threw for 489 yards a year ago, a number that looks thin next to a run-first attack that ranked 10th nationally in rushing yards per game but just 114th in passing. That imbalance is the real story here, not a quarterback battle. Spellman is the established starter for 2026, and the offense he inherits was efficient rather than explosive last season, 33rd in success rate but only 76th in explosiveness, which means his job is to hit the occasional throw that turns a good drive into points rather than reinvent the passing game. Vinny Gianforte and Tate Platte return behind him without game stats on the books, giving Matt Walker experienced continuity at the position even as departed passer Xavier Washington's limited work (86 yards, 2 TD) leaves no real production to replace.
Nick Herman's 921 yards and Luke Woodson's short-yardage production are gone from a rushing attack that ranked 10th nationally in yards per game, leaving Jake Metze as the only back with any carries on record, just 67 yards last fall. Matt Walker has to find that lost production somewhere among Cody Blicharz, Parker Borer, Maksym Makota, Ashton Moreno and Luke Thompson, none of whom have logged a stat yet. Given how little proven juice is behind Metze, Drake's ground game likely takes a real step back from that top-10 rushing mark even if the scheme stays the same.
Hank Foley's 18 catches for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns were solid production in a passing offense that ranked just 114th nationally, but Jackson Voth's 48 grabs for 536 yards walk out the door with him, leaving Foley as the only proven target in the room. Walker Tart and Willis Nofsinger combined for three catches between them last year, so Lincoln Delaere and Sam Johnson, both without prior stats on file, will need to become real threats for Drake to push a passing attack that lagged well behind its 10th-ranked rushing game. This offense won games on the ground and on early downs, not through the air, and until someone beyond Foley proves he can win a route, that identity is not changing in 2026.
Drake's tight ends were never the engine of a run-first attack that finished 10th nationally in rushing yards per game, and that shows in the numbers: Cooper Haswell caught just 2 balls for 32 yards, Jake Scobey added 2 for 9, and the room's only real 2025 production, Tyler Nansel's 5 catches for 50 yards, is now gone. Adam Bogenski, Ryan Donnelly, Spencer Halvorson and Vance Hoffmann all return without a catch on record, so Matt Walker's offense still leans on the ground game and a passing attack that ranked 114th in yards per game rather than asking this group to stretch the field. Haswell's modest target share is the closest thing to continuity here, and that is by design for a team that wins with 205 rushing yards a game.
Drake's ground game hummed behind this front, ranking 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (205) even with the passing attack stuck at 114th, and that split tells the story of what this line has to protect for 2026. Four contributors up front are gone, including Kaiden Parrish, Hunter Seelye, Nathan VanDeWoestyne and Nate Henry, so Chase Schutty, Ian Bickert, Travis Gutierrez, Drew Heiss and Will Hendricks carry the load of proving the rushing identity survives that turnover. Matt Walker's offense doesn't need to reinvent itself, it needs this rebuilt group to run-block at the same level while the passing game finally catches up.
Drake's defense held opponents to 17.7 points a game last season, good for 5th nationally, but the line that helped generate that number loses five contributors in Trystan Anderson, Jacob Auen, Collin Schremp, Duke Frye and Shaku Sangarie. Matt Walker rebuilds the trenches around Gene Blalock, Ayden Chabak, Joseph Chavez, Mitchell Grider, Brody Harriff and Hadley Holmes, none of whom carry prior statistics on file, which makes this a projection built on trust rather than track record. The bigger worry sits behind them: Drake ranked just 49th in keeping opponents off schedule, and until this retooled front proves it can win first downs consistently, that number is more telling than the scoring average.
Drake's front seven held up its end of an 8-4 run, ranking 5th nationally in points allowed per game and 13th in yards allowed, even though the linebacker corps that gets rebuilt this offseason loses J.R. Flood, Boyce McIntosh, Tom Shefte and Sean Allison. Zach Adamo, Christian Aguilar, Reed Anderson, Derrick Bunkelman, Louden Huisenga and Chase Lamb all return to carry that production forward, but none arrives with a statistical track record, so Matt Walker is trusting a group that has to prove it can replicate last year's numbers rather than simply inherit them. The rush defense (23rd) and pass defense (25th) were solid rather than dominant, and how these six sort out run fits will decide whether Drake's defense stays in that same range or slips.
Drake's secondary held up its end of a defense that gave up just 17.7 points a game, 5th nationally, even as the pass defense sat a modest 25th in yards allowed. Garrison Codde, Cameron Cunningham, Andrew Eastman, Nicholas Humphries, Karson Kindred and Chase Kluver all return to anchor that group, giving Matt Walker a secondary with real continuity even though none carry logged stats from a unit that stayed more reactive than dominant, sitting 49th in keeping opponents off schedule. Isaiah Bragg's departure clears out the only production on the books, but with six bodies back the ceiling here is less about replacing numbers and more about this group finally forcing the splash plays that turned schedule-staying downs into stops.
Harry Balke made 14 of 16 field goals and racked up 74 points last season, and that production walks out the door along with punter Ryan Schroeder's 36.4-yard average. What Drake keeps is Sam Bruno, whose 41.6-yard average on just 13 punts suggests he can handle a bigger workload if Matt Walker leans on him. The placekicking job is a blank slate between Ben Jameson and Griffin Kollhoff, neither with any game statistics on file, which makes the kicking net the biggest swing factor for a team that went 7-1 in conference play.
Drake went 8-4 last year without needing much from its passing game, but that cover is gone with Nick Herman's 921 rushing yards out the door and Jake Metze the top returning back off just 67. That shifts the load onto Chase Spellman, who threw for only 489 yards with 2 touchdowns against 2 interceptions a year ago, now paired with Hank Foley's 18 catches as his clearest weapon behind Chase Schutty up front. With zero portal additions to lean on, Spellman's development from spot starter to full-time answer is the difference between Drake repeating its conference success and taking a step back.
Drake bettors made money following Matt Walker's team away from home, where a 4-2-1 straight-up mark came with a 67% cover rate, including a 67% clip as road underdogs. That road profile stands out against a shakier home slate, where Drake covered just 50% despite going 4-1 straight up. The one soft spot is against ranked competition, an 0-3 straight-up, 1-1-1 against the spread stretch that shows the gap between Drake's conference success and its ceiling against the top of the schedule.
14 more sections in the full Drake Bulldogs preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.
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