UC Davis Aggies 2026 Season Preview

Building on a Big Sky run

Tim Plough took UC Davis to 9-4 and a 6-2 league mark in 2025, and the power ratings back it up with the Aggies sitting at No. 10 nationally. The roster picture for 2026 is unsettled with the transfer and signing classes not yet reflected, but the foundation is a program that already plays at that level in the Big Sky. An experienced secondary and a staff that just produced a top-10 rating give this group a real ceiling if the newcomers fill the right gaps.

Efficient Offense, Leaky Defense

UC Davis piled up 455 yards a game and ranked 5th nationally in offensive success rate, but a defense that gave up 428 yards and 30.2 points per game (109th and 87th, respectively) papered over the record with a 3-1 mark in one-score games. That gap between the eye-popping yardage margin in conference play and the actual win rate is the real 2025 story, and it points to regression, not a repeat 9-4. With 33% of production back and none of last year's names verified as returners, Tim Plough needs the offense's efficiency to carry a defense that stayed on schedule at just 44.9% clip and never solved the run.

Caden Pinnick's 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns walk out the door with him, and that production doesn't get replaced by internal continuity, it gets replaced by a total unknown. Tim Plough goes to the portal and high school ranks for answers, landing Jackson Kollock from Minnesota and Jack Brant out of Timberline, neither of whom has thrown a college pass. That's a real gamble behind an offense that ran at 6.88 yards per play (5th nationally) and posted a 48.9% success rate, the kind of efficient attack that can paper over an inexperienced arm if the ground game and system carry it early.

Carter Vargas and his 445 rushing yards are gone, and so is the rest of last year's carries, so the ground game Tim Plough hands off in 2026 is essentially a new build around Chauncey Sylvester, a transfer in from Weber State who ran for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns there. That backfield sits behind an offense that was already elite in space, ranking 5th nationally in success rate and 5th in yards per play, so Sylvester does not need to be a workhorse so much as a reliable piece in a system that was averaging 6.88 yards a snap. Coby Herman arrives with no prior college stats, meaning Sylvester's Big Sky production is the only proven commodity in the room and the closest thing to a known quantity at the position.

Samuel Gbatu Jr.'s 70 catches, 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns walk out the door, and nothing in this incoming group replaces that on paper since Chaz Gilbreath, Jackson Fay, Nikolas Blocker and Koen Parnell all arrive without a single college catch between them. That is a real problem for an offense that averaged 6.88 yards per play, fifth nationally, largely by hitting explosive shots through the air, and it lands on Tim Plough to find a passing-game weapon out of an unproven group. The floor here is an experienced quarterback and line still moving the ball at 271 yards passing a game, but the ceiling plays lower until one of these four freshmen proves he can be more than a name on the two-deep.

Tim Plough's passing attack, 12th nationally a year ago, loses every catch its tight ends produced, with Ian Simpson's 31 grabs for 425 yards and 3 scores gone along with Mitchell Dixon's 18-catch, 2-touchdown production. The fix arrives via transfer in Jacob Houseworth, a three-star pickup from California who carries no college statistics yet and will have to grow into that vacated role fast. UC Davis ran the nation's 5th-most efficient offense by success rate last season, and how quickly Houseworth or others develop as a receiving threat will decide whether that efficiency survives the position turnover.

Tim Plough's offense ran at a 6.88 yards-per-play clip and a 48.9% success rate last season, both top-five nationally, but the group that paved those lanes is almost entirely gone, with Mike Fesili, David Main, Ernesto Nava and Eli Simonson all off the roster. Rebuilding tackle depth falls to three newcomers, Robert Beverly, Lucas Winkler and Anthony Rodriguez, none of whom has logged a college snap, which makes the run game, already just 23rd in rushing yards per game, the shakier half of that equation early in 2026. The passing attack's rhythm, built on 271 yards a game through the air, will only hold up if that trio protects well enough to keep the explosive-play numbers from slipping further than the current 54th-ranked mark.

UC Davis gave up 6.21 yards per play last season, a number that traces straight to a line that could not keep opponents off schedule (44.9%, 96th nationally) and could not stop the run (188 yards allowed per game, 104th). Instead of a transfer influx, the fix arrives from high school signees Corbin Wade, Benjamin Honebein and Sam Haener, three edge prospects brought in to add juice off the corner as the room absorbs the departures of Derrell Porter, Joey Carrillo, Clayton Lynam and Jacob Psyk. Tim Plough is betting those three freshmen can get on the field fast, because last year's front did not generate enough disruption to keep the passing yardage numbers respectable either (240 yards allowed per game, 92nd).

Tim Plough loses six linebackers off a defense that let opponents stay on schedule at a 96th-ranked clip and coughed up 428 yards a game, with Nate Rutchena's 11 tackles and Macray Madruga's 9 the largest chunks of production walking out the door. Nothing behind them carries any prior stats, including incoming Donnie Vercher III, so 2026 is a bet that whoever settles in at the second level tackles more consistently than last year's group, which ranked 104th against the run. Given how thin that production trail is, expect the defense to lean on scheme and its back end before the linebackers look settled.

A defense that let opponents move the chains on more than half of their snaps last season now has to replace its whole back end, with Cole Batson, Khalani Riddick, Rex Connors, Ty Richardson and Jayden Stanley all out the door among seven departed defensive backs. That group allowed 240 yards a game through the air and 6.21 yards per play, numbers Tim Plough needs to see move even with an experienced secondary still in the fold. Jeremiah G Brown arrives out of San Jacinto as a high school signee with no college stats yet, a project piece rather than an immediate fix for a pass defense that ranked 92nd in yards allowed per game.

Robert Meyer arrives from Missouri to take over the placekicking job outright, and the numbers say UC Davis upgrades rather than patches a hole. Hunter Ridley hit 14 of 20 field goals with a 46-yard long and 89 points last season, while Cade Cox handled punts at a 45-yard average, but neither is back for 2026. Meyer went 10 of 14 with a 40-yard long and 66 points at Missouri, and if he settles in quickly, the Aggies keep their special teams as a strength rather than a rebuild project.

Replacing Pinnick's arm

UC Davis has to find 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns worth of quarterback play with Caden Pinnick gone, and no name in the current picture answers that question yet. The offense cannot lean on the ground game to cover for it either, since Weber State transfer Chauncey Sylvester arrives off a modest 305-yard, 4-touchdown season, meaning whoever wins the job under center has to produce right away for the Aggies to stay near last year's 9-4 mark.

Tim Plough's Road Trap

UC Davis went 9-4 straight up, but the market has this team pegged closer than the record suggests, and bettors backing Tim Plough's crew on the road as underdogs got burned every time, 0-2 against the spread. Home favorites were a coin flip at 3-3, and the same split evenness shows up overall at 5-6 against the spread. The one real signal is conference play, where a 4-3 cover mark against a 6-2 record against the spread says this team is live in Big Sky lines even when the number looks tight.