UT Martin Skyhawks 2026 Season Preview

Simpson's Steady Hand

Jason Simpson's crew finished 6-2 in league play, a mark that reads better than the flat 6-6 overall ledger next to it. The gap between that conference form and the middling #54 power rating is the story for 2026: this staff has shown it can win the games that matter most within the Big South-OVC, even when the overall record does not pop. Simpson's league-play form gives UT Martin a real foundation to build on heading into 2026.

Regression Watch in Martin

A 6-2 conference mark hid a group that got outgained by 13.2 yards a game in league play, and a 3-1 record in one-score games papered over the cracks further, so the record was flattering. The offense was the actual problem, needing 16.6 yards per point scored against a 13.9 league median, a sign it left points on the field even while third-down conversions (44.8%) held up. The defense did its part, holding foes to 109 rushing yards a game (9th nationally), but Jason Simpson's team needs the passing offense, 94th at 180 yards a game, to find more explosive plays or last year's conference success does not repeat.

Jase Bauer's 2,002 yards and 10 touchdowns walk out the door, and Tanner Bushee is the front-runner to replace that production after taking the early edge in camp, though Luke Dyer, Hunter Geissinger and Tate Surber are all still in the mix. None of them have thrown a college pass on record, which matters given how modest this attack was last year, 180 passing yards per game ranked 94th nationally and the offense's explosiveness sat at 116th. Whoever wins the job inherits a run-first identity, 163 rushing yards per game and a strong 44.8% third-down rate, so Jason Simpson needs Bushee or one of his challengers to simply not put the offense behind schedule rather than transform it overnight.

Thomas Ansley (565 yards, 2 TD) and Chris Franklin (450 yards, 3 TD) both return to carry a ground game that ranked 49th nationally in rushing yards per game, giving Jason Simpson a proven one-two punch even after John Gentry's 401 yards and a touchdown walked out the door. Boise State transfer Greg Ard adds a power-conference arrival to a backfield that also brings back Moses Adelowo, Javion Goins and Siona Vailahi, none with logged carries yet but all in position to spell Ansley and Franklin. The bigger issue is what surrounds them: this offense ranked 116th in explosiveness, so unless the passing game loosens up, defenses can key on the run and dare UT Martin to hit a big play.

Phaizon Wilson is the one proven target left in this room, coming off 35 catches for 450 yards, and he has to carry a passing game that ranked 94th nationally in yards per game at 180. Bryce Bailey's 37 catches and 5 touchdowns walk out the door along with Scottie Alexander's 284 yards, leaving Shawn Hardy II and Deuce Oliver to grow from bit parts into real complements to Wilson. Signee Tray Moore arrives from Southwind as a three-star addition to the room, but with 1.15 explosiveness ranked 116th, this offense needs Wilson to create the big plays the passing attack lacked in 2025.

Hyatt Timosciek's 18 catches for 181 yards were the room's only real production last fall, and with Drake Martinez's matching 18-catch, 124-yard, one-touchdown line gone, Timosciek now owns the target share at the position outright. Burke Mickelsen, Landon Okla and Christian Stapleton return without a catch on file, so whatever the tight ends add beyond Timosciek in 2026 is unproven rather than replaced. That matters for an offense that ranked 116th in explosiveness and 94th in passing yards per game, since a second tight end who can actually win a matchup is the kind of missing piece that turns some of those third-down conversions into bigger gains.

Nine sacks allowed and a 41.7% success rate tell of a line that kept things moving on the ground (163 yards per game, 49th nationally) without ever threatening anyone through the air, where a 94th-ranked passing attack and a 116th-ranked explosiveness mark point to a group that couldn't consistently create space downfield. That production now has to hold up without Jai'Lun Hampton, Mitchell Appleton, Elijah Bowser, Dolapo Egunjobi and AJ Marquez, part of an eight-man exodus up front. Jason Simpson's offense leaned on its third-down efficiency, 44.8%, good for 21st nationally, to survive a middling ground-and-pound identity, and rebuilding that same push with mostly new faces will determine whether the run game can still bail out a passing attack that ranked 94th in the country.

The run defense stuffed opponents at a 9th-ranked clip in 2025, but that number was built on a front that no longer exists: Jabaree Dawkins, Toby Camp and Polo Mahoni are all gone, taking the bulk of the line's tackle production with them. The bigger issue for Jason Simpson is what was already broken before the losses, a defense that allowed 6.21 yards per play, 99th nationally, with pass protection for opponents holding up far better than the run stop did. Rebuilding the interior push without Camp's presence up front while the back end already leaked yardage through the air is the real problem to solve in 2026, not just replacing bodies.

Jason Simpson's defense stuffed the run to the tune of 109 yards allowed per game (9th nationally) but bled 247 through the air, and now the linebacker corps that helped make that trade-off work is being cleared out entirely. All six contributors at the position are gone, including Shamari Weir and Keyshawn Johnson, who combined for the group's sack production, and Tah Mac Bright Banda, who paced the room in tackles. Whoever steps into those spots inherits a defense that finished 99th in yards per play allowed, meaning the priority is less about run-stuffing pedigree and more about closing the gap in coverage that dragged the whole unit down last season.

The pass defense was the soft spot last season, allowing 247 yards per game through the air and 6.21 yards per play, ranks of 102nd and 99th that stand out against a run defense that held up at 9th nationally. Every name at safety and cornerback who logged tackles a year ago is gone, from Jacob Stevenson and Josh Hastings on the back end to JaMichael McGoy Jr., Chris Rhodes and Doug Newsome outside, so Jason Simpson is rebuilding the coverage pieces almost entirely with an experienced secondary group still on hand and Wayne State transfer corner Wendell Smith folded in to compete on the perimeter. Fixing the yards-per-play number matters more than the raw scoring mark, since Martin's front held teams off schedule only 41.4% of the time and leaned on a defense that still gave up 23.9 points a game despite the run-stopping.

Cade Hechter is gone after hitting 15 of 17 field goals and 72 points, and Jaren Van Winkle's 41.1-yard average on 54 punts walks out the door with him, wiping out both specialist jobs at once. Jason Simpson turns to Ashton Guilbeau and Alex Nolen to settle the placekicking, with Gavin Grant stepping into the punting role, but none of the three carries prior statistics on file, so last season's steady kicking operation is unproven again in 2026. Snapping stays stable behind Hayden King, Jake-Ryan Kruger and Sawyer Phipps, which at least keeps one variable out of the equation while the kicking and punting jobs get sorted.

Tanner Bushee

Jase Bauer's 2002 yards and 10 touchdowns walk out the door with him, and Tanner Bushee steps in with no prior stats on file to prove UT Martin's passing game can hold up. He inherits a real cushion in Thomas Ansley and Chris Franklin behind him and Phaizon Wilson outside, but a 6-2 conference team replacing its whole quarterback resume with an unproven arm is the swing that decides whether 2026 looks like last year or worse.

Jason Simpson's Home Favorite Slump

UT Martin straight-up went 4-1 at home but covered just 2-3 there, and the split gets uglier laying points, going 1-2 as a home favorite. The value has been on the road under Jason Simpson, where the Skyhawks covered 4-3 overall and 3-2 as road underdogs despite a 2-5 straight-up mark away from Martin. Conference games were the profitable lane, a 5-3 ATS mark that outran the 6-2 straight-up record, but a 1-4 cover rate the week after a loss shows this team does not bounce back cleanly for bettors.