Southern Utah Thunderbirds 2026 Season Preview

Southam's Winning Formula

Southam took Southern Utah to 7-5 overall and 6-2 in Big Sky play last season, and the No. 18 power rating heading into 2026 says that was no fluke. A winning record paired with that league mark and national standing points to a program that has settled into a groove rather than one searching for answers. The results speak plainly enough that the story here is continuity, not upheaval.

Burns Takes Over a Ground-First Machine

Southern Utah's offense was built on legs, not arm strength, ranking 11th in rushing yards per game and 9th in success rate while the passing game sat a modest 52nd nationally. That balance now shifts to Will Burns, who threw for just 252 yards with a 1-1 touchdown-to-interception mark in his snaps last year but inherits a run-heavy scheme that does not need him to be spectacular through the air to keep the offense's 33.8 points per game humming. The bigger question is whether a defense that allowed 182 rushing yards per game and let opponents stay on schedule 44.2% of the time can keep pace, because right now this offense is doing the heavy lifting.

Bronson Barron's 2,135 yards and the arm behind a 33.8-point attack are gone, and Will Burns is the front-runner to replace him after completing just 252 yards a year ago, not a settled incumbent. Burns takes the first-team reps into camp, but Michael Cruz and UTSA transfer Noah Lugo are both in the mix, so this stays a genuine competition rather than a formality. Whoever wins it inherits a run-first machine that ranked 11th nationally on the ground and 9th in success rate, meaning the job is more about managing a good offense than rebuilding one.

Joshua Dye's departure leaves a void no single number on this roster comes close to filling, after his 1660-yard, 24-touchdown season anchored a rushing attack that hit 204 yards per game on the ground. Braedon Wissler is also gone, and none of the returning backs, Niko Alailefaleula, Ran Sawyer, Khameron Athy, Isaiah Hemmings, Jaxson Percoats or AJ Tillman, carries any rushing production on file, with Alailefaleula's 5 catches for 35 yards and Sawyer's 3 catches for 84 yards the only receiving numbers to build on. That gap sits squarely on an offense that ranked 9th nationally in success rate, so whoever emerges from this group inherits a scheme that was already working, not one that needs reinventing.

Southern Utah's passing game produced 655 and 647 yards apiece from Shane Carr and Gabe Nunez a year ago, and neither is walking back into that room in 2026. What's left is Devin Downing, who caught 23 balls for 281 yards without finding the end zone, now the clear top target in an offense that leaned on the ground game (204 rushing yards per game, 11th nationally) far more than the arm (218 passing yards, 52nd). BYU transfer Lamason Waller III arrives with no stat history here, but given how modest the returning production is beyond Downing and Anson Kraut's 113 yards, he projects as an immediate factor in whatever vertical shot-taking this offense wants to add to its efficient, run-heavy identity.

Hayden George's 13 catches for 120 yards were the modest ceiling for this position group last year, and he's back as the clear veteran presence in a run-driven attack that leaned on 204 rushing yards per game rather than its tight ends. Mason Thueson returns after a token two-catch season, while Gabe Ashworth, Joey Garza, Connor May and Ashton Wysokinski all come back without a statistical track record to lean on. The passing game ranked just 52nd nationally in yards per game, so George's role expanding beyond a complementary target could be the difference between this offense staying balanced and becoming purely a ground-and-pound operation.

Southern Utah ran for 204 yards a game and posted a 48.3% success rate, the ninth-best mark in the country, but five linemen who helped build that push, Lookman Balogun, Loimata Mauga, Edward Riley, Lee Sampson and Sione Tai, are all gone. Jack Beardall, Colton Campbell, Nesta Crowell, AJ Dutchover and Sirri Kandiyeli are the names left at the top of the depth chart, and how much of that ground game carries over rests on whether that group can replicate the push the departed group provided. The passing game was already the softer side, 218 yards a game and 52nd nationally, so if this rebuilt front slows the run, there is no easy fallback.

Southern Utah's front let opponents stay on schedule 44.2% of the time and gave up 182 rushing yards a game, numbers that trace right back to a line now missing Lando Brown, Joe Tongamoa and Seni Tuiaki up front. What's back is a full six-man group with actual reps: Julian Amituanai and Parker Andrus inside, Myles Amey, Henry Harper, Kavyion Hicks and Jacob Kalolo off the edge. None of them carry gaudy stat lines from 2025, but continuity itself is the story here, this group played through a 7-5 season and now gets to build on that rather than start from scratch against Big Sky rushing attacks that gashed the old front.

Sal Avila, Cole Clifton, Logalima Lesa, Manasa Pela and Mason Stromstad all return to a front that let opponents stay on schedule 44.2% of the time and gave up 182 rushing yards a game, a middling 96th nationally. That run defense number matters more this fall with Sebastian Adamski, Josh Dunn, Ricky Rich and Matt Whitcomb all gone, so the tackle production this group produced last season leaves with them even though the names on the depth chart look familiar. Southern Utah held up better on the back end, ranking 35th against the pass, and the five returning linebackers now carry the job of tightening a run fit that was the clear soft spot of a 7-5 defense.

Southern Utah's pass defense held up fine last year, 35th in the country in yards allowed per game, and the group tasked with keeping that going is almost entirely intact. Cade Bowring, Cooper Cowan, Tavian Edwards and Izzy Foz all return at safety, with Sean Brooks and Tim Christian back at corner, none of them with a snapshot stat line but all with 2025 game reps banked. The bigger issue for this defense was against the run, 96th nationally in rushing yards allowed, so the payoff from this secondary's continuity only shows up if the front finally slows people down before the ball gets to the back seven.

Jayden Rogers hit 11 of 13 field-goal tries and racked up 74 points, and he is back to handle placekicking duties again, giving Southern Utah a proven leg it does not have to replace. The bigger hole is at punter, where Alyas Vigil's 38.8-yard average walks out the door with him, and Santiago Amezcua and Parker Kucifer arrive as kicking options without any prior stats on the books to lean on. Losing long snapper Gavin Lipkin adds another new piece to the operation, but with Rogers anchoring the scoring end of the field, the punt job is the actual swing spot for 2026.

Will Burns at quarterback

Joshua Dye's 1660 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns walk out the door, and that shifts the whole offensive burden onto Will Burns, who threw for just 252 yards, one touchdown and one interception a year ago. Devin Downing and Anson Kraut give him proven targets outside, but with only two portal additions replacing five departures, Southern Utah has no fallback plan if Burns cannot grow into a bigger role fast.

Bettors Undervalue Southern Utah

Southern Utah went 6-2 straight up in Big Sky play but only 5-3 against the spread within the league, evidence the market caught up to a team that quietly kept covering. The real signal is against ranked competition, where the Thunderbirds went just 2-4 straight up yet covered four of six, meaning they hung around in games oddsmakers expected them to lose outright. That pattern, a team overachieving the number more than the scoreboard, is the profile to track into 2026 rather than the raw 7-5 finish.