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Saints playoff chances

Saints playoff chances

Saints playoff chances: 17%

The Saints (2-4) make the playoffs in 17% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win over the Steelers in Week 7 would put them at 26%; a loss, 11%.

New Orleans Saints · 2-4

Make the playoffs
17%
Win the NFC South
12%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
6.8-10.2

Week 7: vs. the Steelers

With a win26%
With a loss11%

The model gives the Saints a 41% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Saints fans should root for in Week 7

The 49ers at the Falcons19% vs 15%
The Buccaneers at the Panthers19% vs 17%
The Patriots at the Bears19% vs 17%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed6%
No. 4 seed5%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)2%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs83%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Steelers40%
Wk 9vs. Browns50%
Wk 10vs. Panthers42%
Wk 11at Bears28%
Wk 12at Bengals33%
Wk 13vs. Packers46%
Wk 14at Panthers33%
Wk 15at Buccaneers44%
Wk 16vs. Cardinals63%
Wk 17at Falcons37%
Wk 18vs. Buccaneers53%

The NFC South race

Panthers3-2Div.62%Playoffs70%
Falcons2-4Div.18%Playoffs30%
Saints2-4Div.12%Playoffs17%
Buccaneers1-5Div.8%Playoffs12%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Saints' chances of making the playoffs?

The Saints (2-4) make the playoffs in 17% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win over the Steelers in Week 7 would put them at 26%; a loss, 11%.

Can the Saints still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 1%.

How much does the Saints' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 26%; lose and it is 11%. The model gives them a 41% chance to win it.

Who should Saints fans root for this week?

The 49ers in 49ers at Falcons; the Buccaneers in Buccaneers at Panthers; the Patriots in Patriots at Bears.