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Jaguars playoff chances

Jaguars playoff chances

Jaguars playoff chances: 86%

The Jaguars (4-2) make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 78% of the time and finish about 11.2-5.8 on average. A win over the Colts in Week 8 would put them at 92%; a loss, 71%.

Jacksonville Jaguars · 4-2

Make the playoffs
86%
Win the AFC South
78%
No. 1 seed and the bye
13%
Reach the Super Bowl
17%
Win the Super Bowl
9%
Average final record
11.2-5.8

Week 8: vs. the Colts

With a win92%
With a loss71%

The model gives the Jaguars a 73% chance to win on Sun, Nov 1.

Who Jaguars fans should root for in Week 7

The Vikings over the Colts87% vs 83%
The Giants at the Texans88% vs 85%
The Browns at the Titans87% vs 85%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed13%
No. 2 seed20%
No. 3 seed21%
No. 4 seed24%
No. 5 seed (wild card)2%
No. 6 seed (wild card)3%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs14%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 8vs. Colts74%
Wk 9at Ravens54%
Wk 10at Titans74%
Wk 11at Giants67%
Wk 12vs. Titans81%
Wk 13at Bears46%
Wk 14vs. Steelers64%
Wk 15at Texans60%
Wk 16at Cowboys63%
Wk 17vs. Commanders79%
Wk 18at Colts66%

The AFC South race

Jaguars4-2Div.78%Playoffs86%
Texans2-4Div.14%Playoffs25%
Colts2-4Div.6%Playoffs11%
Titans1-5Div.1%Playoffs2%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Jaguars' chances of making the playoffs?

The Jaguars (4-2) make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 78% of the time and finish about 11.2-5.8 on average. A win over the Colts in Week 8 would put them at 92%; a loss, 71%.

Can the Jaguars still win the Super Bowl?

In 9% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 17%.

How much does the Jaguars' next game matter?

Win in Week 8 and their playoff chance is 92%; lose and it is 71%. The model gives them a 73% chance to win it.

Who should Jaguars fans root for this week?

The Vikings in Colts at Vikings; the Giants in Giants at Texans; the Browns in Browns at Titans.