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Steelers playoff chances

Steelers playoff chances

Steelers playoff chances: 57%

The Steelers (4-2) make the playoffs in 57% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 27% of the time and finish about 9.9-7.1 on average. A win at the Saints in Week 7 would put them at 66%; a loss, 45%.

Pittsburgh Steelers · 4-2

Make the playoffs
57%
Win the AFC North
27%
No. 1 seed and the bye
4%
Reach the Super Bowl
7%
Win the Super Bowl
3%
Average final record
9.9-7.1

Week 7: at the Saints

With a win66%
With a loss45%

The model gives the Steelers a 59% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Steelers fans should root for in Week 7

The Cardinals over the Broncos60% vs 56%
The Rams at the Raiders59% vs 56%
The Titans over the Browns59% vs 56%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed4%
No. 2 seed8%
No. 3 seed8%
No. 4 seed6%
No. 5 seed (wild card)10%
No. 6 seed (wild card)11%
No. 7 seed (wild card)10%
Miss the playoffs43%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Saints60%
Wk 8vs. Browns60%
Wk 10at Bengals42%
Wk 11at Eagles60%
Wk 12vs. Broncos58%
Wk 13vs. Texans59%
Wk 14at Jaguars36%
Wk 15vs. Ravens54%
Wk 16vs. Panthers52%
Wk 17at Titans66%
Wk 18at Ravens45%

The AFC North race

Bengals3-2Div.27%Playoffs56%
Steelers4-2Div.27%Playoffs57%
Ravens4-2Div.25%Playoffs55%
Browns4-2Div.21%Playoffs48%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Steelers' chances of making the playoffs?

The Steelers (4-2) make the playoffs in 57% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 27% of the time and finish about 9.9-7.1 on average. A win at the Saints in Week 7 would put them at 66%; a loss, 45%.

Can the Steelers still win the Super Bowl?

In 3% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 7%.

How much does the Steelers' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 66%; lose and it is 45%. The model gives them a 59% chance to win it.

Who should Steelers fans root for this week?

The Cardinals in Broncos at Cardinals; the Rams in Rams at Raiders; the Titans in Browns at Titans.