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Ravens playoff chances

Ravens playoff chances

Ravens playoff chances: 55%

The Ravens (4-2) make the playoffs in 55% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 25% of the time and finish about 9.8-7.2 on average. A win over the Bengals in Week 7 would put them at 70%; a loss, 38%.

Baltimore Ravens · 4-2

Make the playoffs
55%
Win the AFC North
25%
No. 1 seed and the bye
4%
Reach the Super Bowl
6%
Win the Super Bowl
3%
Average final record
9.8-7.2

Week 7: vs. the Bengals

With a win70%
With a loss38%

The model gives the Ravens a 51% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Ravens fans should root for in Week 7

The Saints over the Steelers57% vs 53%
The Titans over the Browns57% vs 53%
The Rams at the Raiders56% vs 53%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed4%
No. 2 seed8%
No. 3 seed8%
No. 4 seed5%
No. 5 seed (wild card)9%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)10%
Miss the playoffs45%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Bengals52%
Wk 8at Bills42%
Wk 9vs. Jaguars46%
Wk 10vs. Chargers75%
Wk 11at Panthers43%
Wk 12at Texans51%
Wk 14vs. Buccaneers63%
Wk 15at Steelers46%
Wk 16vs. Browns61%
Wk 17at Bengals43%
Wk 18vs. Steelers55%

The AFC North race

Bengals3-2Div.27%Playoffs56%
Steelers4-2Div.27%Playoffs57%
Ravens4-2Div.25%Playoffs55%
Browns4-2Div.21%Playoffs48%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Ravens' chances of making the playoffs?

The Ravens (4-2) make the playoffs in 55% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 25% of the time and finish about 9.8-7.2 on average. A win over the Bengals in Week 7 would put them at 70%; a loss, 38%.

Can the Ravens still win the Super Bowl?

In 3% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 6%.

How much does the Ravens' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 70%; lose and it is 38%. The model gives them a 51% chance to win it.

Who should Ravens fans root for this week?

The Saints in Steelers at Saints; the Titans in Browns at Titans; the Rams in Rams at Raiders.