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Falcons playoff chances

Falcons playoff chances

Falcons playoff chances: 30%

The Falcons (2-4) make the playoffs in 30% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 18% of the time and finish about 7.4-9.6 on average. A win over the 49ers in Week 7 would put them at 43%; a loss, 19%.

Atlanta Falcons · 2-4

Make the playoffs
30%
Win the NFC South
18%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
3%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.4-9.6

Week 7: vs. the 49ers

With a win43%
With a loss19%

The model gives the Falcons a 42% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Falcons fans should root for in Week 7

The Buccaneers at the Panthers32% vs 28%
The Ravens over the Bengals30% vs 29%
The Steelers at the Saints30% vs 28%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed2%
No. 3 seed8%
No. 4 seed7%
No. 5 seed (wild card)2%
No. 6 seed (wild card)4%
No. 7 seed (wild card)6%
Miss the playoffs70%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. 49ers41%
Wk 8at Buccaneers53%
Wk 9vs. Bengals45%
Wk 10vs. Chiefs41%
Wk 12at Vikings33%
Wk 13vs. Lions52%
Wk 14at Browns50%
Wk 15at Commanders61%
Wk 16vs. Buccaneers61%
Wk 17vs. Saints63%
Wk 18at Panthers41%

The NFC South race

Panthers3-2Div.62%Playoffs70%
Falcons2-4Div.18%Playoffs30%
Saints2-4Div.12%Playoffs17%
Buccaneers1-5Div.8%Playoffs12%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Falcons' chances of making the playoffs?

The Falcons (2-4) make the playoffs in 30% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 18% of the time and finish about 7.4-9.6 on average. A win over the 49ers in Week 7 would put them at 43%; a loss, 19%.

Can the Falcons still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 3%.

How much does the Falcons' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 43%; lose and it is 19%. The model gives them a 42% chance to win it.

Who should Falcons fans root for this week?

The Buccaneers in Buccaneers at Panthers; the Ravens in Bengals at Ravens; the Steelers in Steelers at Saints.