My teams
Jets playoff chances

Jets playoff chances

Jets playoff chances: 22%

The Jets (2-4) make the playoffs in 22% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 7% of the time and finish about 7.5-9.5 on average. A win over the Dolphins in Week 7 would put them at 28%; a loss, 9%.

New York Jets · 2-4

Make the playoffs
22%
Win the AFC East
7%
No. 1 seed and the bye
1%
Reach the Super Bowl
2%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.5-9.5

Week 7: vs. the Dolphins

With a win28%
With a loss9%

The model gives the Jets a 67% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Jets fans should root for in Week 7

The Bears over the Patriots23% vs 20%
The Rams at the Raiders23% vs 20%
The Seahawks over the Chiefs23% vs 20%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed1%
No. 2 seed1%
No. 3 seed2%
No. 4 seed3%
No. 5 seed (wild card)3%
No. 6 seed (wild card)5%
No. 7 seed (wild card)7%
Miss the playoffs78%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Dolphins68%
Wk 8vs. Raiders52%
Wk 9at Chiefs30%
Wk 10vs. Bills45%
Wk 11at Chargers63%
Wk 12at Dolphins59%
Wk 14vs. Broncos54%
Wk 15at Cardinals59%
Wk 16vs. Patriots42%
Wk 17vs. Vikings38%
Wk 18at Bills37%

The AFC East race

Bills5-1Div.47%Playoffs79%
Patriots4-2Div.46%Playoffs78%
Jets2-4Div.7%Playoffs22%
Dolphins0-5Div.1%Playoffs1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Jets' chances of making the playoffs?

The Jets (2-4) make the playoffs in 22% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 7% of the time and finish about 7.5-9.5 on average. A win over the Dolphins in Week 7 would put them at 28%; a loss, 9%.

Can the Jets still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 2%.

How much does the Jets' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 28%; lose and it is 9%. The model gives them a 67% chance to win it.

Who should Jets fans root for this week?

The Bears in Patriots at Bears; the Rams in Rams at Raiders; the Seahawks in Chiefs at Seahawks.