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Seahawks playoff chances

Seahawks playoff chances

Seahawks playoff chances: 50%

The Seahawks (3-3) make the playoffs in 50% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 9.0-8.0 on average. A win over the Chiefs in Week 7 would put them at 63%; a loss, 40%.

Seattle Seahawks · 3-3

Make the playoffs
50%
Win the NFC West
8%
No. 1 seed and the bye
2%
Reach the Super Bowl
5%
Win the Super Bowl
2%
Average final record
9.0-8.0

Week 7: vs. the Chiefs

With a win63%
With a loss40%

The model gives the Seahawks a 44% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Seahawks fans should root for in Week 7

The Patriots at the Bears52% vs 49%
The Raiders over the Rams51% vs 48%
The Buccaneers at the Panthers52% vs 49%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed2%
No. 2 seed4%
No. 3 seed1%
No. 4 seed1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)13%
No. 6 seed (wild card)16%
No. 7 seed (wild card)14%
Miss the playoffs50%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Chiefs44%
Wk 8vs. Bears47%
Wk 9vs. Cardinals73%
Wk 10at Raiders49%
Wk 12at 49ers36%
Wk 13vs. Cowboys64%
Wk 14vs. Giants68%
Wk 15at Eagles62%
Wk 16vs. Rams63%
Wk 17at Panthers44%
Wk 18at Rams54%

The NFC West race

49ers6-0Div.90%Playoffs98%
Seahawks3-3Div.8%Playoffs50%
Rams2-4Div.2%Playoffs20%
Cardinals2-4Div.<1%Playoffs6%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Seahawks' chances of making the playoffs?

The Seahawks (3-3) make the playoffs in 50% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 9.0-8.0 on average. A win over the Chiefs in Week 7 would put them at 63%; a loss, 40%.

Can the Seahawks still win the Super Bowl?

In 2% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 5%.

How much does the Seahawks' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 63%; lose and it is 40%. The model gives them a 44% chance to win it.

Who should Seahawks fans root for this week?

The Patriots in Patriots at Bears; the Raiders in Rams at Raiders; the Buccaneers in Buccaneers at Panthers.