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Eagles playoff chances

Eagles playoff chances

Eagles playoff chances: 22%

The Eagles (2-4) make the playoffs in 22% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 19% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win over the Cowboys in Week 7 would put them at 34%; a loss, 10%.

Philadelphia Eagles · 2-4

Make the playoffs
22%
Win the NFC East
19%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
6.8-10.2

Week 7: vs. the Cowboys

With a win34%
With a loss10%

The model gives the Eagles a 48% chance to win on Mon, Oct 26.

Who Eagles fans should root for in Week 7

The Texans over the Giants24% vs 18%
The Colts at the Vikings23% vs 22%
The Titans over the Browns23% vs 22%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed1%
No. 3 seed5%
No. 4 seed14%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)2%
Miss the playoffs78%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Cowboys48%
Wk 8at Commanders49%
Wk 9vs. Giants52%
Wk 11vs. Steelers40%
Wk 12at Cowboys39%
Wk 13at Cardinals49%
Wk 14vs. Colts52%
Wk 15vs. Seahawks38%
Wk 16vs. Texans45%
Wk 17at 49ers22%
Wk 18at Giants43%

The NFC East race

Giants3-2-1Div.43%Playoffs48%
Cowboys2-4Div.30%Playoffs35%
Eagles2-4Div.19%Playoffs22%
Commanders1-4-1Div.8%Playoffs11%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Eagles' chances of making the playoffs?

The Eagles (2-4) make the playoffs in 22% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 19% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win over the Cowboys in Week 7 would put them at 34%; a loss, 10%.

Can the Eagles still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 1%.

How much does the Eagles' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 34%; lose and it is 10%. The model gives them a 48% chance to win it.

Who should Eagles fans root for this week?

The Texans in Giants at Texans; the Colts in Colts at Vikings; the Titans in Browns at Titans.