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Browns playoff chances

Browns playoff chances

Browns playoff chances: 48%

The Browns (4-2) make the playoffs in 48% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 21% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Titans in Week 7 would put them at 59%; a loss, 32%.

Cleveland Browns · 4-2

Make the playoffs
48%
Win the AFC North
21%
No. 1 seed and the bye
2%
Reach the Super Bowl
4%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
9.4-7.6

Week 7: at the Titans

With a win59%
With a loss32%

The model gives the Browns a 59% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Browns fans should root for in Week 7

The Bears over the Patriots49% vs 46%
The Rams at the Raiders50% vs 46%
The Giants at the Texans49% vs 47%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed2%
No. 2 seed6%
No. 3 seed7%
No. 4 seed7%
No. 5 seed (wild card)7%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)10%
Miss the playoffs52%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Titans60%
Wk 8at Steelers40%
Wk 9at Saints50%
Wk 10vs. Texans54%
Wk 12vs. Raiders51%
Wk 13vs. Bengals46%
Wk 14vs. Falcons50%
Wk 15at Giants52%
Wk 16at Ravens39%
Wk 17vs. Colts60%
Wk 18at Bengals37%

The AFC North race

Bengals3-2Div.27%Playoffs56%
Steelers4-2Div.27%Playoffs57%
Ravens4-2Div.25%Playoffs55%
Browns4-2Div.21%Playoffs48%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Browns' chances of making the playoffs?

The Browns (4-2) make the playoffs in 48% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 21% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Titans in Week 7 would put them at 59%; a loss, 32%.

Can the Browns still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 4%.

How much does the Browns' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 59%; lose and it is 32%. The model gives them a 59% chance to win it.

Who should Browns fans root for this week?

The Bears in Patriots at Bears; the Rams in Rams at Raiders; the Giants in Giants at Texans.