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Cardinals playoff chances

Cardinals playoff chances

Cardinals playoff chances: 6%

The Cardinals (2-4) make the playoffs in 6% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish about 6.2-10.8 on average. A win over the Broncos in Week 7 would put them at 12%; a loss, 3%.

Arizona Cardinals · 2-4

Make the playoffs
6%
Win the NFC West
<1%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
<1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
6.2-10.8

Week 7: vs. the Broncos

With a win12%
With a loss3%

The model gives the Cardinals a 41% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Cardinals fans should root for in Week 7

The Chiefs at the Seahawks7% vs 6%
The Steelers at the Saints7% vs 6%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed<1%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)2%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs94%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Broncos40%
Wk 8at Cowboys36%
Wk 9at Seahawks27%
Wk 10vs. Rams43%
Wk 11at Chiefs19%
Wk 12vs. Commanders54%
Wk 13vs. Eagles51%
Wk 15vs. Jets41%
Wk 16at Saints37%
Wk 17vs. Raiders38%
Wk 18vs. 49ers26%

The NFC West race

49ers6-0Div.90%Playoffs98%
Seahawks3-3Div.8%Playoffs50%
Rams2-4Div.2%Playoffs20%
Cardinals2-4Div.<1%Playoffs6%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Cardinals' chances of making the playoffs?

The Cardinals (2-4) make the playoffs in 6% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish about 6.2-10.8 on average. A win over the Broncos in Week 7 would put them at 12%; a loss, 3%.

Can the Cardinals still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in <1%.

How much does the Cardinals' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 12%; lose and it is 3%. The model gives them a 41% chance to win it.

Who should Cardinals fans root for this week?

The Chiefs in Chiefs at Seahawks; the Steelers in Steelers at Saints.